Tis the season for MLB FA landing speculation. Many publications have offered their insight, and not wanting to be outdone, MLB.com had 50 “experts” predict where 11 of the top free agents will land this winter. Bums referred to the MLB.com article, and I was three quarters away from completing this post, so I chose not to comment at that time. But these are fun prognostication time for many of us.
The Dodgers were prominently mentioned as landing spots for 7 of the 11. But the one FA where the MLB.com experts predicted would sign with LAD is SS Carlos Correa. It is clear from the predictions that many of the “experts” believe the Dodgers are in on one of the 4 elite SS. Besides getting the most predictions for Carlos Correa, they were second for Xander Bogaerts and Trea Turner, and third for Dansby Swanson.
The other prominent FA where the Dodgers were considered was Aaron Judge, where they received the third most predictions. Of course there were only three teams that were selected by the group of 50. Most predicted NYY and not surprising, the second place team was San Francisco.
The Dodgers received the 4th most predictions for Jacob deGrom, but none for Justin Verlander. I guess these 50 experts do not take stock into what Ken Rosenthal and Jon Morosi have heard.
There were a lot less predictions for Carlos Rodón landing in LAD. I am with those who do not think there is a chance that the Dodgers will sign Rodón. He is injury prone, he wants 5 years, he is 30, he received a QO, and his agent is Scott Boras. What do you think the chances are for Rodón signing with LAD. If they wanted Rodón, they should have gone after Castillo at the deadline.
Other than JV, the three other players that the Dodgers were not considered by any of the 50: Catcher Willson Contreras, CF Brandon Nimmo, and 1B/DH José Abreu. Absolutely no surprise there.
The predictions for LAD were logical. The team needs SP and a SS, and that is where the 50 concentrated; 4 SS and 3 SP.
Aaron Judge: Yankees
Other teams receiving votes: Giants, Dodgers
My pick – NYY
Jacob deGrom: Rangers
Other teams receiving votes: Mets, Braves, Dodgers, Giants, Astros, Guardians, Padres
My pick – NYM, 2nd pick Texas
Trea Turner: Phillies
Other teams receiving votes: Dodgers, Cubs, Mets, Cardinals, Giants, Red Sox, Mariners, Marlins, Yankees
My pick – Philadelphia
Carlos Correa: Dodgers
Other teams receiving votes: Twins, Cubs, Yankees, Braves, Orioles, Phillies, Angels, Giants, Mariners, Red Sox, Tigers
My pick – San Francisco, 2nd would be Cubs
Xander Bogaerts: Red Sox
Other teams receiving votes: Dodgers, Cubs, Giants, Phillies, Twins, Braves, Mariners, Orioles, Yankees, Mets
My pick – Boston
Justin Verlander: Astros
Other teams receiving votes: Yankees, Mets, Rangers, Braves, Giants, Angels, Blue Jays, Cardinals, Padres
My pick – Houston
Dansby Swanson: Braves
Other teams receiving votes: Cubs, Dodgers, Giants, Mariners, Phillies, Twins, Cardinals, Orioles, Red Sox, Royals, Yankees
My pick – Atlanta, 2nd would be Seattle, 3rd would be Cubs
Carlos Rodón: Mets
Other teams receiving votes: Rangers, Cubs, Giants, Angels, Cardinals, Yankees, Red Sox, Dodgers, Mariners, Marlins, Orioles
My pick – Texas, 2nd would be NYM
Willson Contreras: Cardinals
Other teams receiving votes: Astros, Tigers, Cubs, Red Sox, Guardians, Mets, Yankees, D-backs, Giants, Padres, Rays, Rockies
My pick – St. Louis
Brandon Nimmo: Mets
Other teams receiving votes: Rockies, Giants, Mariners, Yankees, Astros, Padres, Angels, Blue Jays, Cubs, White Sox
My pick – NYM
José Abreu: White Sox
Other teams receiving votes: Cubs, Padres, Marlins, Giants, Guardians, Mariners, Rays, Twins, Astros, Brewers, Cardinals, Mets, Orioles, Phillies, Rangers, Red Sox, Rockies
My pick – ChiSox, 2nd pick San Diego
I thought I would go out on a limb and make my own predictions. I do not think the Dodgers will get any of the 11 FA selected for this exercise by MLB.com. I do not think they will sign any large FA contract. If they were not willing to go 3 years for Tyler Anderson, I cannot see them going 3 + years for deGrom, JV, or Carlos Rodón. I could very well be wrong, but that is how I read what they have done.
NYM said from the very beginning that Edwin Díaz and Brandon Nimmo would be their top priority to re-sign. Not Jacob deGrom. They have already signed Díaz to a record breaking reliever contract. The Mets will need to sign deGrom or Rodón, so I would not be surprised at all to see Steve Cohen dig deep and sign both deGrom and Nimmo.
Boston has said all along that signing Xander Bogaerts was their #1 priority. Seeing the expected cost for Bogaerts, Boston has to believe they can afford Bogaerts and maybe Devers. MLBTR projects Bogaerts at 7 years and $189MM, while Kiley McDaniel projects his contract to be 6 years $168MM. Boston can certainly afford that level of a contract, and they do not want a repeat of the loss of Mookie Betts that did not go well with the Boston faithful.
The projected salary and term for Dansby Swanson is in line with what Atlanta put out for Matt Olson. MLBTR predicts 7 years and $154MM, while McDaniel goes 6 years $150MM. If the Braves pass on that, I would be surprised. He is an Atlanta kid, and the Braves are his hometown team. AA has basically stolen Acuña, Albies, Riley, Harris II, and Strider. They still have 2 arbitration years for LHSP Max Fried before he comes home to the Dodgers where he belongs (with Jack Flaherty and Lucas Giolito). The Braves can afford Dansby Swanson. Vaughn Grissom is not the answer at SS. Why tie up all of the other youngsters when not willing to sign your SS to market rate?
Contreras to St. Louis makes too much sense. There are two premium catchers that could be available via trade: Oakland’s Sean Murphy and Toronto’s Danny Jansen. St. Louis does have the prospect capital to make a trade, but Contreras’ projected salary of 4 years $84MM is not out of line. St. Louis’ projected payroll is just about where it was last year, and they may not want to go over that amount (approximately $175MM). However, $195MM is not out of line where they have been before (2021 and 2019).
If Nimmo is not re-signed by NYM, I think his next best landing spots would be Colorado or SF. The massive CF territory of both stadiums calls for a good CF, which Nimmo is. Can he be for 5 years? He will be 34 at the end of his projected contract, so he should make it to the end.
The ChiSox cannot let Abreu leave can they? His contract would still not take them above last year, and they cannot afford to lose his bat. They still expect to contend. I keep hearing that they need to keep 1B free for Andrew Vaughn. Vaughn does not have the bat that Abreu has and he can play LF. AJ Pollock is gone, and the ChiSox have to be happy about that. Maybe they will actually get Eloy Jiménez and Luis Robert together for a full season this year. Their window is closing and they have one of the weakest farm systems in MLB. This is not the year to let Abreu go.
Well I have given it the old college try. Why not play along? Give us where you think these FA’s will land.
Before I ponder about what the Dodgers might plan via FA, I need to see where their approach may be leaning. Cost conscious or go all out to win in 2023?
What’s your take on payroll for ‘23? I just read it’s currently at $177.7m (or $185m, not sure, both numbers are there). It would appear there is room to do something. Replacing what Turner brings is not really possible, nor is replacing the numbers Anderson put up, but replacing their production, about 9 WAR, should be possible if that much money is available. I don’t see them not going all in, not with Freeman, Betts and Kershaw on the roster and all over 30.
My guess is still one of those guys you mentioned above is coming to LA. My pick would be Correa with Bogaerts a close second.
The Dodgers need to reset their CBT penalty payroll to avoid the player loss penalty aspect of that penalty. The payroll tax part of the penalty doesn’t seem to be the problem.
If they can add Justin and stay under the penalty then they probably will bring him back and most likely at a big salary cut.
Their next free agent they might sign is Heaney and again only if that signing allows them to stay under the penalty.
The Dodgers might try to trade for an elite player late in the 2023 season and will want some payroll room at that point so that they continue to stay under the penalty.
There are going to be a lot of free agent shortstops off the board for a lot of years if they don’t sign one this year so Amaya and Lux better be able to be replacement level players going forward.
I also think the Dodgers need to make a few trades at the prospect level. Busch’s bat should be able to get a lesser bat but better defender for second base and the same might be true for Vargas at third.
Hopefully the Dodgers can trade for an elite pitcher like Burns but again only if that addition keeps them under the penalty. Most likely the Dodgers will trade for someone like TREVOR ROGERS.
The experts have a ton of information and yet many players in picked in the second and third rounds of the annual draft do much better than many taken in the first round, many trades do not work out well, and many predictions don’t happen.
I am lousy at predicting anything, but I believe the Giants are going to make a huge push for a name free agent. And they have the cash to spare. They need a first baseman since Belt is gone, I could see them signing Bellinger to fill that need.
I am still on a high from last night’s great game.
For all those who doubted the Pac 12, the top conferences in the just released AP poll is below. You can also see why the Big 10 wants USC and UCLA. They will get SC, but we have to wait and see what the UC Board of Regents says next month, when the bureaucrats actually have to make a decision.
SC is two wins away from a probable College Football Playoff invite. Lincoln Riley has resurrected USC, and we are back with the elite in College Football. Great to be a Trojan!!
Pac-12 — 6 (Nos. 5, 10, 12, 14, 17, 22)
SEC — 5 (Nos. 1, 6, 8, 9, 20)
ACC — 3 (Nos. 7, 16, 18)
American — 3 (Nos. 19, 21, 25)
Big Ten — 3 (Nos. 2, 3, 11)
Big 12 — 3 (Nos. 4, 15, 24)
Sun Belt — 1 (No. 23)
Independent — 1 (No. 13)
Fight On. ✌
Sorry everyone. I have a tired brain, so I am going to need to take a night off. I got to watch my grandson’s hockey game, went to dinner, and came home and ready to crash. Hopefully I will get my mojo back on Monday.
Keep commenting. I get a lot of my ideas from each of you.
Apparently Belli is putting out the word that he doesn’t want to be tied to a team beyond 2023. Wants a one-year contract, although I guess some team might offer him a second year as a player option in the hopes that he might consider that to be his best offer, just in case he has another bad year.
Although he has received multiple multi-year offers, Scott Boras says Bellinger is looking to sign a one-year contract. They are betting on him having a bounce back season.
Did anyone else watch Elton John last night on Disney+? Pretty amazing.
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Davis is really turning it on for the Lakers while James is out. Westbrook has looked good as well. I didn’t want the Lakers to sign James and I didn’t want them to make the Davis trade. I would trade James now and get draft choices plus whatever would be required to make the trade work payroll wise.
Dodgers supposedly showing interest in Mitch Haniger.
I like the player, but am really concerned about his injury history. Maybe we should just bring AJ back for a year while we wait for Pages.
Verlander supposedly met with the Dodgers this weekend and is said to prefer a west coast landing spot………………………….until an east coast team offers him more money.
MLB Reporter, Mohammed Lester (MoLesterSources.com) is reporting an inside source has advised him that Belli is nearing a 2 year $16MM deal w/Toronto with a player opt out after 1st year. I have no idea who Mohammed Lester is or if he has credible sources. But he is a MLB reporter. But makes sense that this is Belli’s market, and Toronto is one of two teams that truly wanted Belli. They were looking at trading for him but could not make a deal. More likely, they were not giving up anything when they knew LAD was going to non-tender him.
Alek Manoah has called Gerrit Cole the biggest cheater in MLB history.
https://twitter.com/JomboyMedia/status/1594832865161887744?s=20&t=1Do5TQYaUvZgOujxTSxPcA
Who is Kodai Senga’s agent? Every time a team talks to him, he gets press. I think he has been linked to every team in MLB.