Can We Be Honest About The Current Rotation?

Let’s be honest.  The Dodgers are not going to win the WS unless:

• Kershaw makes it all the way back, and stays healthy through October
• Urías figures out what is wrong, and corrects it before October
• Gonsolin can find a way to get back to his 2022 self, or at least get to 7 innings once in a while (not likely)
• LAD finds other starters to slow the innings pitched by the rookies (I believe that is the reason for Lance Lynn). Lynn still falls in the LAD needs to score 8 to win category.

Getting Nolan Arenado was not going to change that dynamic.  The LAD offense is good enough to win games (Saturday and Sunday not withstanding).  Pitching, defense, and base running, not so much.

Urías and Doc have both said that the upcoming FA is not an issue, and is not the problem for Julio’s poor performance thus far.  Okay.  Is it physical?  Urías has always been pudgy, so I am not blaming his weight.  It may become a long term concern, and may become a health concern, but not a pitching concern at 26.  Is there something to his velo drop?

Is it mechanical?  If so, why can’t the Dodger pitching gurus figure it out?  It has to be psychological, physical, or mechanical, right?  Right now, the Dodgers are putting all their eggs in the mechanical basket.  Julio has a month to get it figured out before getting ready for the stretch run.

Tony Gonsolin has never been consistently able to pitch late into games.  In 2022, in his 24 GS, he did get through 6.0 innings half the time, and 7.0+ innings three times.  But he was not able to do that consistently before 2022 or since his injury.  In 2023, 4 out of 16 starts, Gonsolin has pitched 6.0 innings.  We have already heard he needs more rest because he does not recover well.  On June 13, Tony’s ERA was at 1.93.  His ERA jumped a run in his next start to 2.92.

In his seven starts since June 13, his ERA is 7.25.  His FIP is 5.53.  His OPS against is .827.  I do not think anyone would consider that good.  I am not convinced that Gonsolin’s poor performance is not health related.

Tony Gonsolin’s Pitching Percentile Rankings per Statcast:

Not much red at all.  This is not the Percentile Rankings of a WS Championship caliber starting pitcher.

His 4-seamer velo has dropped from 95.1 to 93.8 to 93.1 to 92.5.  He is 29.  Should his velo be dropping like that?  I am genuinely asking, not judging.

His 4-seamer has never been the swing and miss pitch for him, and his offspeed pitches are catching way too much of the plate this year.

Something sure has changed.  Gonsolin is not the same pitcher he was in 2022.  Why?

For comparison, let’s look at Bobby Millers Statcast Percentile Rankings:

A lot more red for Miller.  He does show some negative tendency for hard hit, exit velo, and whiff %.  But all three are well within the average rankings.

Neither Gonsolin nor Urías have ever consistently been able to pitch deep into games.

The above table indicates that Gonsolin’s effectiveness starts to go south in inning 4.  It also indicates that he rarely pitches into the 6^th inning.  He has been a reliever almost exclusively for the 7^th – 9^th innings.

Urías has historically had a bad 1^st inning.  Why?  Can’t a pregame approach be adjusted to more replicate what he used to do when he came into relief? His 1^st innings pitched in relief were much better.  But the table also shows that Julio has trouble pitching past 5 innings.  Again, we have to consider that most of his innings pitched past the 6^th were done in relief.

So that is two starting pitchers who have no history at all for pitching late into a game, and three rookies.  Thus the need for an innings eater, even one that is not pitching effectively in 2023, Lance Lynn.

So while everyone (including LAD management) says that the team needs starting pitching, getting the likes of Jordan Montgomery or Jack Flaherty or Eduardo Rodriguez, Michael Lorenzen or James Paxton is not going to solve the LAD pitching problem unless we go back to the beginning:

• Kershaw makes it all the way back, and stays healthy through October
• Urías figures out what is wrong and corrects it before October
• Gonsolin can find a way to get back to his 2022 self, or at least get to 7 innings once in a while (not likely)
• LAD finds other starters to slow the innings pitched by the rookies (I believe that is the reason for Lance Lynn)

That being said, AF/BG have to believe they can and will get it resolved, then go out and find the missing components to make LAD a WS Champion. No that is not Tommy Pham or Mark Canha.

As I am writing this, there are 1.5 days before the August 1, 3:00PM (PST) trade deadline concludes.  Is there another SP in their 2023 future?

07-30-2023 – MiLB Game Summary Report

OKC Dodgers 16 – Reno Aces (Arizona) 15

Landon Knack was not dominant, but he was effective.  He went the first 4.0 IP.  He did allow 1 unearned run, on 4 hits and 4 walks to go with his 5 Ks.  He threw 79 pitches (45 strikes), and faced 20 batters.  His relievers?  Not so good.  No earned runs in 4.0 IP IN RENO?  That’s pretty darn good.

• Jimmy Nelson – 2-run HR in his 1.0 IP
• Ryan Sherriff – 0.2 IP, 5 runs (all earned), 3 hits, 2 walks, and 2 Ks
• Victor González – 1.0 IP, 2 runs (all earned), 3 hits, 1BB
• Wander Suero – Gave up game tying HR in the bottom of the 9^th
• Ken Giles – Gave up a game tying 3-run HR in the 10^th

OKC ran out of relievers.  Yonny Hernández came out to pitch in the bottom of the 11^th with the inherited runner on 2^nd.  Lo and behold Hernández got the save with only 1 unearned run against.  Once again Michael Busch and Miguel Vargas led the attack, but this time had help.

Yonny Hernández 77 mph fastball + 45 mph ephus repertoire

(CC: @PitchingNinja) pic.twitter.com/m4YrREcmdJ

— Bruce Kuntz (@Bnicklaus7) July 30, 2023

Key Performers:

• Michael Busch – 3-6, 2 runs, 3 RBI, 2 HR (18)
• Miguel Vargas – 3-6, 2 runs, 3 RBI, HR (4)
• Ryan Ward – 4-6, 3 runs, 3 RBI, HR (13)
• David Dahl – 3-5, 2 runs, 5 RBI, 2 HR (4)

Box Score

Springfield Cardinals 8 – Tulsa Drillers 7

Kyle Hurt and especially Antonio Knowles had rough outings.  Hurt started and went 3.2 innings.  3 runs (all earned).  On just 1 hit, but 7 BB and 5 K.  Knowles never recorded an out.  He gave up a single and 4 walks and left leaving the bases full.  Trevor Bettencourt gave up a bases clearing double.  Bettencourt gave up a run on his own that proved to be the game winner.

Key Performers:

• José Ramos – 2-2, HBP, 1 RBI, HR (18)
• Yusniel Díaz – 2-4, 1 run, 2 RBI, double (12), HR (6)
• Doubles- Imanol Vargas (19), Josh Stowers (5)
• HR – Hamlet Marte (1), Austin Gauthier (6)

#Dodgers outfield prospect Jose Ramos was pulled from Double-A Tulsa’s game after going 2-2 with a homer

— Bruce Kuntz (@Bnicklaus7) July 30, 2023

He was pulled in the 8th inning.  It was not due to injury. ???????

Box Score

Dayton Dragons (Reds) 4 – Great Lakes Loons 2

Kendall Williams seems to be one of the few LAD MiLB pitchers allowed to pitch 5.0 innings.  Williams also did not dominate but was effective for his 5.0 innings.  He gave up 2 runs, 4 hits (including HR), 2 BB, 3 K.  He came out behind 2-0.  Dayton scored a third run off Lucas Wepf before GL scored 2 runs in the 6^th.  Franklin De La Paz allowed a HR in the 8^th to end the scoring.

Key Performers:

• Damon Keith – 2-5, 1 run, 1 RBI, double (19)
• Doubles – Alex Freeland (11), Jake Vogel (15)

Box Score

Rancho Cucamonga Quakes 5 – San Jose Giants 4

RC defeated the Giants 4 games to 2 in the 6 game series.  RC scored 5 runs on 5 singles and 7 walks.  San Jose scored 4 runs on 12 hits.  RC pitchers also struck out 14 batters, including Madison Jeffrey striking out the final batter on three pitches for the save.

Three 2023 draft picks collected all 5 of the hits.

Key Performers:

• 21 year old 1B Joe Vetrano, Boston College, 5^th round – 2-3, 1 BB, 2 RBI
• 22 year old SS Sam Mongelli, Sacred Heart, 10^th round – 2-3, 1 run
• 21 year old SS/3B Jordan Thompson, LSU, 15^th round – 1-3, 1 run

Box Score