Everyone realizes that it takes two to make a contract. Apparently Scott thinks that as long as the Dodgers are willing to overpay everyone, that player will just come to LA.
They let two MVP shortstops walk in free agency, one after the other.
Yeah, they just LET them walk. The Dodgers offered Seager 8 years $250MM. That was not enough, and Texas offered Corey $325MM for 10 years. Should the Dodgers have offered $342MM (the offer Padres gave Turner)? $350MM? What contract amount would make everyone think that the Dodgers want to win?
During Seager’s prime years, he was out quite a bit due to injuries. For his last 8 years (age 22 – 29), Seager has generated an fWAR of 30.7 for a value of $245.4MM. He has $252.5MM remaining on his contract for his 30-37 years. That equates to an approximate fWAR of 31.5 over the next 8 years. Thus, he needs to put up a greater fWAR in his not so prime years than he did in his prime years. With Seager’s injury history, the chances of Seager accumulating 31.5 fWAR and $252.5MM are fairly long. If he does make it, it will not be by much, and I am not sure the Dodgers believed the risk was warranted.
Could the Dodgers have matched Texas’ offer? Of course. But then would they have signed Freddie Freeman? Realistically no. But why hesitate. Just go ahead and do it. $$$ is no object.
Now to Trea Turner. There was nothing in the conversations between LAD and Trea that made the Dodgers believe there was a chance for an equitable contract. There has to be some semblance between contract value and fWAR. Or is the correlation irrelevant?
The Padres offered Turner $342MM, highest contract offer for a SS. He told the Padres, NOOOOO!
The Dodgers were never going to offer more than $342MM. Fans may not agree with the decision, but the front office was gearing up for a youth movement and passing the SS torch to Gavin Lux. We will never know whether that would have worked out had Lux not torn two knee ligaments last spring.
In his age 30 season, Turner had an fWAR of 3.8 and a value of $30.5MM. His salary for 2023 was $27.273. He earned his salary. Now can he replicate that performance over the next TEN YEARS? I think Trea Turner is special, but his biggest asset is his speed. As he ages, that speed is going to regress.
It’s super incompetent in my opinion to let both of these guys walk to play Gavin Lux. Or is it because they didn’t want to spend the money?
I am not so clairvoyant that I can predict how Lux would have played this year. He very well could have put up a better fWAR than Trea.
Didn’t want to spend the $$$??? Per Cot’s Contracts, 2022 AAV payroll (year Seager left) was $293MM. 2023 AAV payroll (year Turner left) was $267MM. And another $97MM in taxes. How much more do you think the Dodgers should spend on payroll? $400MM? Seager and Turner would have been an annual commitment of another $35MM to the payroll. Look how that worked out for NYM who has one of the absolute best SS in the game, Frankie Lindor.
Why stop there? Next year, spend another $60MM for Ohtani. Another $30MM for Snell. Another $25MM (plus posting fee) for Yamamoto. Another $30MM for Matt Chapman. Another $20MM for Josh Hader. It is obviously the payroll that dictates how well the team plays in the post season.
Maybe if one of the LAD players with one of the top 5 contracts (Betts, Freeman, Kershaw, Muncy, Taylor) didn’t s*** the bed in the playoffs they could have won a series. It wasn’t who was not there. It was who was there that failed.
Don’t forget that Scott believed that the Dodgers did not spend enough for starting pitching before the season, and AF needed to be held accountable. Another $50MM in SP???? Verlander would have been $45MM just for himself. I guess they could be approaching $400MM.
I do not equate $$$ to championships. Obviously some do.
Finally, if the overall MiLB of the year (2019) is not good enough to make the LAD starting lineup, then why have an MiLB system? Per Scott:
Lux isn’t in the same stratosphere as those two (Seager and Turner), but then we’re going to let him walk a year later because we have the best number 9 hitter on the planet in Lux.
Gavin Lux is the best position player to come out of the farm system since Corey Seager. If he doesn’t deserve a starting position, who does?
I am totally OK with not signing Seager and TTurner. Those contracts will not end well.
Lux at short backed up by Rojas? Lh hitters ar 1b,ss,3b,cf and maybe rf? We need more good rh bats for 3b and Of.
We have two HOFers at the top of our lineup. We have one of the best hitting catchers in baseball hitting behind them. We have (had) a HOFer in the rotation, along with a first round pick (Buehler) two big strong guys who throws 100 mph, Catman, Syndergard and Bauer. We had a possible rising star in Lux, who was replaced by a defensive wizard at short. We added some solid veterans in the outfield.
Then, the boat sprang several leaks, all of which we have discussed thoroughly here
The team put together by Friedman had the potential to win 111 again. But, with the myriad of injuries it only won 100. Woe is us.
If Mookie, if Freddie, if Kershaw…. we probably wouldn’t be having these discussions. They know it.
I’m confident the team will reboot and rebound. It will be another long winter. We’re used to that. But, it might be exciting for us.
In the mean time we have two Texas teams, yawn, Arizona and Philadelphia playing baseball. Honestly I don’t give a rat’s ass who wins this tournament, but, having spent 11 years in Arizona, I’d be ok if they do well. But, I’m not watching.
As Ted would say… carry on.
For the Dodgers to sign Seager and his contract have the same monetary value as his deal with Texas, they would have had to offer him about 50 million more. The reason is simple, no state income tax in Texas. He takes home more per year than he would in California. As for Turner, everyone says his desire to play on the east coast was made up. If so, why did he turn down so much more money to go east? Dodgers made the right choice.
Two things:
1) The Dodgers have apparently hired Nelson Cruz as a coach/advisor to work with some of our prospects in Arizona. Someone on Twitter (can’t remember who) posted a pic of him with one of our young outfield prospects, Eduardo Quintero, yesterday. This kid (at least so far) looks to have some real potential. Can’t remember if you’ve posted anything on him Jeff, but if not, maybe you could go digging for a future article.
2) We’ve been discussing the downside of the division winners having to have all those days off before they start the playoffs. Here’s an article from JP Hoornstra with an idea that might be worth thinking about. It certainly beats intra squad games.
https://www.ocregister.com/2023/10/18/hoornstra-heres-how-to-fix-5-day-layoff-for-mlbs-top-seeded-playoff-teams/
MLBTradeRumors is publishing their annual season outlooks. This AM it was the Dodgers.
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/10/offseason-outlook-los-angeles-dodgers-12.html
The article included a mention of an Ohtani risk that I was not aware of.
Here is a take that so many LAD fans probably have:
I included Adam Frazier instead of Joc. Adam has more versatility.
yeesh, Jeff, I can’t tell tone in these articles, so not sure if you are frustrated when writing these. Honestly, I don’t know why you have to beat me up in some of these articles, but you’re kind of putting words in my mouth. Where do I begin,
“Apparently Scott thinks that as long as the Dodgers are willing to overpay everyone, that player will just come to LA.”
When did I ever say this?
“Should the Dodgers have offered $342MM (the offer Padres gave Turner)? $350MM? “
Maybe they should have? if they really wanted to keep him in town, they could have at least matched the offer. They have the funds. Remember in the old days before this analytics movement, teams would actually bid against other teams for top free agents. I’m not saying the Dodgers should have offerred 400M, but if they wanted to keep him, they could have oferred market price for a talent like Seager.
“ and I am not sure the Dodgers believed the risk was warranted”
Yes he’s had injury issues. a lot of players have. is the risk warranted? well he did win world series MVP, and NLCS MVP, and could win another world series this year with the Rangers. My opinion is the risk is warranted, with him.
“How much more do you think the Dodgers should spend on payroll? $400MM?”
As much as it takes to win championships. Stop defending Mark Walter’s wallet. The team already charges an arm and a leg for tickets, food, parking. What else is the revenue/profit supposed to go for a baseball team? To field as good of a roster as you can. It’s not your money, nor is it mine. If they choose to spend 500 million on the player roster, good. That’s where the bulk of the money is supposed to go, to the team. I don’t care how much they spend. (and please don’t start talking about the luxury tax and draft picks, or bonus pool stuff).
“It is obviously the payroll that dictates how well the team plays in the post season.”
No, it’s the talent, clutch hitting, great starting pitching, and the team’s desire to win.
“Maybe if one of the LAD players with one of the top 5 contracts (Betts, Freeman, Kershaw, Muncy, Taylor) didn’t s*** the bed in the playoffs they could have won a series. “
Maybe if the Dodgers had an actual major league starting rotation, they could have won as well.
“Don’t forget that Scott believed that the Dodgers did not spend enough for starting pitching before the season, and AF needed to be held accountable. “
You’re putting words in my mouth again. I didnt say he didnt spend enough, I said he didn’t acquire enough. I don’t care how they get the pitching, free agency, trades, international, swap meet, softball leagues, just get it.
“Gavin Lux is the best position player to come out of the farm system since Corey Seager. “
Really Jeff? I don’t think so. What about Will Smith? Buehler? Urias? Bellinger? Joc? I think all were after Seager, or around the same time. You think Lux is better than those guys?
I guess we can agree to disagree. Remember we’re on the same team.
I hope Lux’ knee will allow him to play short to start the season. If not, maybe he starts out at third with Betts, Freeman, and Rojas filling out the infield. Sorry to repeat myself but my favorite infield would be Freeman, Betts, Lux, and Bobby Witt Jr.
I think the Dodgers should spend big on Yamamoto and no, I don’t know what spending big means. He would be my first choice to spend money on though.
I think Ohtani will wind up in Seattle. He won’t pitch until 2025 if ever again and by then the Dodgers will have May and Gonsolin back, not that they will ever pitch again.
Busch and one of Hernandez/Taylor would provide a cheap DH and if Kershaw and Muncy don’t return, the Dodgers could go both Montgomery. and Yamamoto.
Buehler, Yamamoto, Miller, Montgomery, Sheehan, Pepiot with Grove/Stone replacing Miller if he has to be included in the Witt Trade.
3B Lux
2B Betts
1B Freeman
SS Witt
C Smith
CF Outman
LF DeLuca
DH Busch/Taylor
RF Heyward
A spot has just opened on the 40-man.
Apparently, the Dodgers put Suero on waivers, he wasn’t claimed, they outrighted him and he declared for free agency.
Bleacher Reports put out a column today suggesting a trade for each team.
The one for the Dodgers was Busch, Sheehan and Feduccia to the Brewers for Burnes (one year of control remaining).
Comments?
One of my favorite internet digital shows is Foul Territory. In a recent episode there was an interesting take from Max Muncy on what happened to the LAD offense on the Foul Territory Show. I think the relevant discussion comes around the 11:00 minute mark.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vogueS6sBYU
Max throwing RVS and Aaron Bates under the bus????
LHSP Eric Lauer has been outrighted to AAA by Milwaukee. Lauer has more than three years of service time, allowing him to elect free agency over being outrighted to MiLB.
Lauer is a Dodger nemesis. He is only 28, and seems like an ideal resurrection project for the Dodgers. If he selects free agency, I would not have an issue with the Dodgers signing him to a MLB contract.
Eric Lauer over Wander Suero? No brainer.
Phillies bats have gone cold. I revise my earlier prediction, Dodgers could’ve beat either NLCS team.
Rangers in danger of blowing it with that massive payroll.
Dave Dombrowsi is going to overpay for Josh Hader for next year. Every other team bidding will just be building up the price for Hader. Dombrowski will not be outbid. Josh will eclipse Edwin Diaz’s 5 year $102MM deal.
I a working on something, but I have been watching the games and not writing. I think we can continue to discuss on this post for another day.
Just keep it going.
Jeff, is it possible to make a slight adjustment to the mechanics of this site.
I see new the recent comments and if I want to read what Bum just posted, and of course I always do, I can’t click on that recent comment link and go directly to it, I have to search for it. When we get as many posts as we have now it makes it difficult.
Another screw up by that incompetent fool Andrew Friedman. By not having the Dodgers re-sign Kimbrel for 2023 he is ruining the Phillies chances of making the World Series this year.
AZ again with 50K fans attending today. I sure hope their success leads to fan support for the rest of this decade.
Third time through the order does in Gallen.