Today marks the day that AF/BG can begin negotiations with Shohei Ohtani and the other FA. I would love to be in the room with the owners as they advise AF what he can spend when it comes to Ohtani. If there is a player who can increase the value of the organization, and their investment more than the projected cost, it is the unicorn Shohei Ohtani. But that has to be a singular component to free agency that does not have any impact on the search for elite talent otherwise. Whatever Ohtani costs, the organization will recoup it in value increase. Hopefully it will also translate into more wins, but make no mistake, Ohtani will be a business decision, not a baseball decision. For that reason, I do believe there is a chance that AF will finally win a FA bid (not named Bauer). Freddie does not count, because there were not many teams that were bidding for him after the CBA was signed.
To the best of my knowledge (and research), below is as close to as a cumulative listing of Free Agents signed by LAD during the AF era. It is possible that I have missed some, but nobody significant (I think). It also does not include players who signed MiLB contracts and reached MLB and impacted the Dodgers. Two off the top of my head are RHRP Brandon Morrow and OF Jason Heyward. I did not spend a lot of time (okay extremely little time) on researching free agents who signed MiLB contracts. If anyone thinks this is a worthwhile endeavor, be my guest.
If anyone has any names that I have missed, please let me know so I can include it into my database.
2014-2015
- 12-11-2014 – RHSP – Brandon McCarthy, 4 years $48MM
- 12-31-2014 – LHSP – Brett Anderson, 1 year $10MM
- 02-21-2015 – RHRP – Brandon Beachy – 1 year $2.75MM
2015-2016
- 11-13-2015 – LHSP – Brett Anderson accepted QO
- 12-09-2015 – 2B – Chase Utley, 1 year $7MM
- 12-30-2015 – LHSP – Scott Kazmir, 3 years $48MM
- 01-09-2016 – RHSP – Kenta Maeda, 8 years $25MM ++++Incentives
- 01-19-2016 – RHRP – Joe Blanton, 1 year $4MM
- 02-04-2016 – 2B – Howie Kendrick, 2 years $20MM
- 02-19-2016 – RHRP – Luis Coleman, 1 year $750K
- 02-21-2016 – RHRP – Yaisel Sierra, 6 years $30MM
2016-2017
- 12-05-2016 – LHSP – Rich Hill re-signed, 3 years $48MM
- 12-23-2016 – 3B – Justin Turner re-signed, 4 years $64MM
- 01-10-2017 – RHRP – Kenley Jansen re-signed, 5 years $80MM
- 02-11-2017 – 2B – Chase Utley re-signed, 1 year $2MM
- 02-15-2017 – RHRP – Sergio Romo, 1 year $3MM
2017-2018
- 12-20-2017 – RHRP – Tom Koehler, 1 year $2MM
- 02-13-2018 – 2B – Chase Utley re-signed, 2 years $2MM
2018-2019
- 11-02-2018 – LHSP – Clayton Kershaw re-signed, 3 years $93MM
- 11-12-2018 – LHSP – Hyun-jin Ryu accepted QO
- 12-21-2018 – RHRP – Joe Kelly, 3 years $25MM
- 01-26-2019 – OF – AJ Pollock, 5 years $60MM
2019-2020
- 12-15-2019 – RHRP – Blake Treinen, 1 year $10MM
- 01-15-2020 – LHSP – Alex Wood, 1 year $4MM
- 01-18-2020 – RHRP – Jimmy Nelson, 1 year $1.25MM
- 07-21-2020 – LHRP – Jake McGee, 1 year minimum (Balance paid by Colorado)
2020-2021
- 12-29-2020 – RHRP – Tommy Kahnle, 2 years $5.25MM
- 01-05-2021 – RHRP – Blake Treinen re-signed, 2 years $17.5MM
- 02-05-2021 – RHSP – Trevor Bauer, 3 years $102MM
- 02-13-2021 – 3B – Justin Turner re-signed, 2 years $34MM
2021-2022
- 11-10-2021 – LHSP – Andrew Heaney, 1 year $8.5MM
- 11-29-2021 – RHRP – Daniel Hudson, 1 year $7MM
- 03-13-2022 – LHSP – Clayton Kershaw re-signed, 1 year $17MM
- 03-17-2022 – RHRP – Jimmy Nelson re-signed, 1 year $700K
- 03-18-2022 – 1B – Freddie Freeman, 6 years $162MM
- 03-18-2022 – LHSP – Tyler Anderson, 1 year $8.0MM
- 03-22-2022 – RHRP – Blake Treinen club option exercised, 1 year $8MM
- 03-23-2022 – INF – Hanser Alberto, 1 year $1.6MM
2022-2023
- 09-22-2022 – RHRP – Daniel Hudson club option exercised, 1 year $6.5MM
- 11-29-2022 – RHRP – Shelby Miller, 1 year $1.5MM
- 12-05-2022 – LHSP – Clayton Kershaw re-signed, 1 year $20MM
- 12-14-2022 – RHSP – Noah Syndergaard, 1 year $13MM
- 12-30-2022 – DH – JD Martinez, 1 year $10MM
- 02-10-2023 – OF – David Peralta, 1 year $6.5MM
- 02-11-2023 – RHRP – Alex Reyes, 1 year $1.3MM
- 02-15-2023 – RHRP – Jimmy Nelson re-signed, 1 year $1.2MM
The largest contracts in terms of $$$ is:
- Freddie Freeman – 6 years $162MM
- Trevor Bauer – 3 years $102MM
- Clayton Kershaw – 3 years $93MM
- Kenley Jansen – 5 years $80MM
- Justin Turner – 4 years $64MM
- AJ Pollock – 5 years $60MM
Over the last three years AF has signed 20 players for a cumulative free agent cost of $431.55MM. 2020-2021 ($158.75MM), 2021-2022 ($212.80MM), 2022-2023 ($60MM).
The current payroll estimate is $155MM, with the CBT threshold at $237MM.
AF says that he is going to “aggressively” pursue starting pitching. Nowhere did he say he was going to sign elite pitching north of $100MM. He also did not intimate what aggressively pursue means. That does not mean he will not alter his MO. AF tries to minimize risk in every deal from a financial standpoint for starting pitching; with the one exception, Trevor Bauer.
Maybe AF believes that signing Andrew Heaney, Tyler Anderson, and Noah Syndergaard to one year deals totaling $29.5MM was aggressively pursuing SP.
While AF was lamenting the sorry state of his team’s starting pitching, he commented about pitchers able to go 6.0 to 7.0 IP in the playoffs.
“The question is, how many of them are there on planet Earth?”
“There aren’t too many guys going six or seven in postseason games, anecdotally, as I look around,” Friedman said.
Maybe he should have looked around a little more:
- Nathan Eovaldi – 6 starts, 5 starts 6.0 IP or more
- Jordan Montgomery – 6 starts, 3 starts 6.0 IP or more
- Zac Gallen – 6 starts, 3 starts 6.0 IP or more
- Zack Wheeler – 5 starts, 4 starts 6.0 IP or more
- Aaron Nola – 4 starts, 2 starts 6.0 IP or more
- Merrill Kelly – 4 starts, 2 starts 6.0 IP or more (all 4 5.0 IP or more)
- Justin Verlander – 3 starts, 2 starts 6.0 IP or more (other 5.2 IP)
- Spencer Strider – 2 starts, 1 start 6.0 IP or more (other 5.2 IP)
The Dodgers had 3 starting pitchers total 4.2 IP in total.
“I prefer that personally for a starting pitcher to take the ball and do that,” Friedman said.
“There’s just fewer and fewer of them every year, so therefore the supply is more limited. It’s just harder to access.”
Well there were three that AF could have had. Nathan Eovaldi was passed over for Noah Syndergaard. JV was too expensive. And I have no idea why AF could not acquire Jordan Montgomery either at the 2022 or 2023 deadline. He really was not that expensive for either trade.
Choose wisely!
AF has readily admitted “I didn’t do a good enough job.” I do not think he will be getting a lot of fans disagreeing with that comment. Now he has to do better. The first thing he can do is forget the notion that top of the rotation pitchers cannot go 6.0 IP or more in the playoffs. Maybe the Dodgers SP. But when your geeks tell you that your pitchers should not go through the lineup a 3rd time, you will be right…they will not go 6.0 IP.
Maybe you could begin with letting your MiLB pitchers get through the lineup 3 times and let them pitch more than 70 pitches. You are right that the SP will not go 6.0 or 7.0 in the postseason if you will not let them stretch out even in MiLB.
Admittedly, that was not the issue this year. The pitching was just awful. But it is the mindset that pitchers have to be limited in IP that has to be changed.
“We’ll certainly be focused on starting pitching for sure,” AF said. “And it’s how to balance the young guys … with Walker Buehler coming back, and then the market, whether it’s through trade or free agency.”
IMO, Bobby Miller is the only young gun that can be considered top of the rotation material. Walker Buehler was there, but he needs to prove he can get back there. The sample size is way to small for Ryan Pepiot and Emmet Sheehan, but they should probably be considered back of the rotation pitchers until they can be trusted.
AF needs 2 front line top of the rotation SP. 3 would be better. There are multiple FA pitchers that are available.
- Yoshinobu Yamamoto (Wasserman)
- Blake Snell (Boras)
- Jordan Montgomery (Boras)
- Aaron Nola (Paragon)
- Sonny Gray (Bo McKinnis)
Andrew, these guys are going to cost. A LOT. Looking at your history, none of these five will be signed by LAD. If you need to do better…start here.
But I fear, it is the next level that you will most be negotiating with:
- Shōta Imanaga(Octagon)
- Lucas Giolito (CAA)
- Seth Lugo (Ballengee)
- Jack Flaherty (CAA)
- James Paxton (Boras)
BTW, I left off Eduardo Rodriguez. He spurned LAD at the deadline. He does not deserve to be a Dodger.
Also, please don’t wait until the trade deadline to acquire top of the rotation pitchers via trade. You will need to spend some of that precious prospect capital, but if you can acquire 1 Ace for 2 mid to back end prospects, you have to make that deal. How many Ross Stripling’s and Mitch White’s do you need before you realize that prospects do not always make it to the top.
When asked what has to be done to stop the carousel of bad Divisional Series, he noted,
“We need to figure out what we can do differently and how to go about it.”
“There is an element that is October theater.”
“I do think that there’s good fortune that plays in … [but] we didn’t hold a lead in this division series,” he said.
“For a team this talented to play 27 innings where we do not hold a lead is beyond that … it’s something we have to figure out and do what we can to put ourselves in a position to not have that happen.”
Maybe AF does not agree that it is just a crapshoot. If he did, then he would not be lamenting the back to back NLDS disastrous dismissals as he seems to be.
Andrew, take a look at the top 5 FA pitchers and get two of them. That is a start. But if you settle for Lucas Giolito or Jack Flaherty then you are setting yourself up for more of the same.
We can and will get into prospective trades as we continue on into the Hot Stove League.
AF, you said you need to get better…we agree. Change your mindset and FA approach, and you just might get there.
“The Dodgers are lining up to be a landing spot for Japanese star left-handed pitcher Shōta Imanaga”, per @Feinsand. Shōta posted a 2.66 ERA with an impressive 29.5 K% for the Yokohama DeNA BayStars of the NPB. He’d be a really nice pickup and come a lot cheaper than Yamamoto.
“There aren’t many pitchers going 6-7 innings”. AF. Technically, he isn’t wrong about that. There were 12 teams in the post season, each with 3-4 starting pitchers lined up for a post season run. That’s 36-48 pitchers looking for an opportunity. 8 of them accomplished 6-7 innings. That’s a few, but it isn’t many. But, point taken. There weren’t any on the Dodgers.
How many free agent pitchers available over the last few years are proven aces? Not very many. Our staff was set up 1-5 when the season started, the only addition was a #5 reclamation candidate. It melted down rather quickly. The lineup at the start of the season was pretty much set. The point being the Dodgers didn’t need that much and that is reflected in who they signed last winter.
It is vastly different this year. Would love to have Ohtani, but we need pitching I have suggested signing Ohtani might influence other players to come here. But my gut tells me most MLB players are motivated only by money. If they aren’t their agents assuredly are.
No Gold Gloves. Not really surprising. There are a few Dodgers mentioned for Silver Slugger. I believe Mookie has a shot.
It’s hard to judge what AF might do based on what he says. Remember he said he wasn’t aware of any pending surgeries for the offseason, then Peralta and Kershaw both have surgery and he most definitely knew about those.
Jeff has pointed out many times what AF has done and how he operates. And sadly that makes getting the best FA unlikely. It appears AF doesn’t have confidence in pitchers’ ability to last so he buys low hoping to luck out and get rebound results.
Jeff, very informative articles the last two days. I agree with you in that AF should sign three FA starters and go to a six man rotation. With the extra rest, this might encourage the team to allow the starters to go more than six innings. It could help them sign a Japanese pitcher or two in that they only pitch once a week in Japan.
It looks like a desperate team like SF will be joining the Mets in driving up the prices for starting pitching. We have plenty of money available to play this offseason. But, with the crazy prices thrown around for Ohtani and Yamamoto I can’t see the Dodgers making a hard push for these two.
From the choices listed yesterday I would like them to sign Imanaga, Montgomery, Giolito or Flaherty. Two LHP would be ideal. Giolito or Flaherty could be AF’s reclamation signings for 2024.
So, maybe this as a six man starting rotation:
Imanaga
Montgomery
Buehler
Miller
Sheehan
Giolito/Flaherty
I would pass on Kershaw. He’s surprisingly effective when he does pitch in the regular season. But, he has breakdowns during the season and of course poor showings in the postseason. I know there are no guarantees with injuries, but with the above rotation it might increase the chances of a more healthy (six man rotation) and effective staff.
The Dodgers should allow their MiLB pitching prospects to pitch more innings. They’ve done it through high school/college so why not after becoming a professional? With today’s training, nutrition, and coaching I don’t get the lack of opportunity to do so. I know it’s all about the computers and the resulting analytics, but try watching what is going on in the field. Like Bruce Botchy when he allows Josh Sborz to pitch 2 1/3 innings to close out the world series for the Rangers. Really, Josh “frickin” Sborz??? There’s no way in hell Roberts would allowed that to happen. Just sayin’
Carry on
Great article Jeff!
Today the Dodgers must decide whether to give JD Martinez the qualifying offer of $20.3 million. I suspect they will not give JDM the QO with Ohtani still in play. Also, Dodgers have viable internal DH candidates in Muncy, Smith(on off days), Busch, and Vargas.
Friedman’s lack of aggressiveness with free agents is rationale and reasonable. It allows him to build depth in his roster that succeeds in the regular season. But it hampers the teams ability to excel in the postseason with top pitchers and hitters who can handle #1 starters. He also has not helped the team much at the last two trade deadlines when they were clearly headed to the playoffs.
I give Friedman a little leeway last offseason, because his top 7 starting pitchers at the beginning of the year were all hurt or unavailable for the playoffs. That is an unprecedented loss of pitching. Urias, Kershaw, May, Gonsolin, Syndergard, Buehler, and Pepiot for most of the year. AF still should have added more pitching at the trade deadline, and choosing Noah over Eovaldi was an error, but it is tough to prepare for this severe of a pitching loss.
And still the Dodgers won 100 games, despite the pitching problems. The team ERA was 4.06 in 2023 compared to 2.80 in 2022. The offense in 2023 actually scored more runs than in 2022, despite losing Trea Turner, Justin Turner, Cody Bellinger and Trayce Thompson(who was good in 2022).
Given the pitching issues last year, I would expect Friedman to focus almost entirely on adding pitching this offseason. While Ohtani is the jewel of the free agents, he will surely not help the pitching this year and maybe not in 2025 either. After his last TJ in OCT 2018, he didn’t pitch in 2019 and only 2 innings in 2020. Even his hitting was not as good in the two years after TJ. Maybe from a business standpoint, Ohtani at $500 million works, but probably not from a purely baseball standpoint and DH is not the priority this year.
Interesting turn of events in the manager carousel, so I am going to start a rumor. Craig Counsel will not be managing the Mets, the Guardians, or the Brewers. He is said to be signing with a team with an existing manager. My guess…the Dodgers. Maybe he also convinces AF to part with some of the RHP prospect talent pool for Corbin Burnes. Counsell turned down the highest offer for a manager in MLB with Milwaukee. Who else has that power. The only other one I can think of is NYY, and that is possible as well.
Wow. Cubs kick Ross to the curb. I thought he did a good job.
I doubt Counsell went to the Cubs just because they gave him the most money. I’m sure they also promised him they’d be heavily involved in the free agent derby this winter.
More competition for Ohtani and Yamamoto, both of whom they could certainly use.
It should be fun to see the “welcome” Counsell gets on his first trip to Milwaukee next season. It’s one thing to leave, but to go to their biggest rival?
Seven players in this year’s free agent class have been tagged with the qualifying offer, reports Jeff Passan of ESPN. Those players are:
· Shohei Ohtani
· Cody Bellinger
· Blake Snell
· Josh Hader
· Sonny Gray
· Aaron Nola
· Matt Chapman
JD Martinez did not get a QO. That does not necessarily end his time with the Dodgers. A lot will be dictated as to where Ohtani goes.
Teoscar Hernandez (Seattle, LF) did not get a QO and neither did Mitch Garver (Texas Catcher).
It is reported that Yoshinobu Yamamoto has been officially posted by his team, Oryx Buffalos.
https://x.com/TalkinBaseball_/status/1720782554402541606?s=20
All 30 MLB clubs have 45 days to negotiate with a player after he is posted. If no agreement is reached in that timeframe, the player returns to his NPB club for the coming season. He cannot be posted again until the following offseason. Yamamoto must agree before Christmas. Last year Senga signed December 11.
Not sure if anyone saw this article today in the LA Times re the Dodgers and the next wave of Japanese stars:
https://www.latimes.com/sports/dodgers/story/2023-11-06/dodgers-japanese-star-shohei-ohtani-roki-sasaki
Three new managers today. Councell surprisingly jumps to the Cubs for 8 mil a year. Ross was relieved of his duties just prior to the announcement. Mets hired the Yankees bench coach, Mendoza. Guardians, I am still not used to that, hired Stephen Vogt, who just retired last year and is 39 years old. Snell, Hader, Nola, Ohtani, Gray, Bellinger, and Chapman, all got the 20.35 QO from their teams. Other than Ohtani, I doubt the Dodgers chase any of the others. They hate giving up draft picks.
Is a reference to the looming tower?
Will Ohtani hit 60 home runs next year? Less likely in SF.