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All Trades Are Risks, Not Just Rentals

Trades?  Free Agent signings?  There are risks with everything involved with player acquisition.

I have a different take on rentals.  There was once a rental that cost the Dodgers their #1 (Alex Verdugo), #8 (Jeter Downs) and #14 (Connor Wong) that netted rental Mookie Betts.  That worked out well.  Max Scherzer was a rental.  Yes, Trea Turner was two years, but they cost the Dodgers their #1 (Keibert Ruiz) and #2 (Josiah Gray).  I do not miss any of the trio that left for Mookie, and even though the Ruiz and Gray duo are turning into top Nationals players, I would make that same trade every time.

Jordan Montgomery was a rental.  That worked out well for Texas.  Lourdes Gurriel Jr. and Tommy Pham were rentals.  Arizona does not get to the WS without them.  Francisco Lindor was a rental for NYM.  MLB is chock full of rentals that did well, and those who did not.  Trades are always a risk.

First it was Dylan Cease that the Dodgers were very “involved” in trade discussions for.  He is not a rental, but the prospect capital was deemed to be too much.  CWS asked for two top Cincinnati pitching prospects and 2 more position players.  I am not sure if they were MLB position players or prospect position players.  Maybe the Dodgers circle back to Cease who is almost certain to be traded this year, and he will go to whichever team gives them the best return.  This has not been an AF strength.

Next up was Corbin Burnes.  Yes, Corbin Burnes is a rental, but one who is more than capable of being the Game 1 Starter of the NLDS/NLCS/WS.

Before Trey Sweeney, the Dodgers had NOBODY in the wings for SS. I agree that AF would be VERY reluctant to trade Gavin Lux.  For me, the Dodgers are not going to go out and trade for Willy Adames on his own.  But he may have to be part of the package to acquire 29 year old RHSP Corbin Burnes, because Milwaukee would want Gavin Lux plus pitching.

Risky?  100% yes.  And yet I would agree to it because of who Corbin Burnes is.  Willy Adames is a darn good SS, and the Dodgers would be very happy with him at SS.  BTW, maybe we fans have a problem with Adames’ strikeouts, but LAD does not.

Adames was part of the last AF Tampa Bay trade.  He came to TB with Drew Smyly with David Price going to Detroit.

Adames is nowhere near the salary requirement of Seager/Turner/Correa/Lindor/Bogaerts.  He is probably a shade under Dansby Swanson but a shade over Javy Baez. He would certainly be affordable enough for AF to extend.  I would think that Adames would be an extension target during ST.

If they do not re-sign Adames?  They can address that in 2025.  But the Dodgers did win 100 games with Miggy Rojas as their primary SS in 2023.  AF will find a way.

The prize they need is Corbin Burnes.  Burnes would also be an extension target.  Boras does not like extensions, but if his clients are amenable, he will get it done.  Burnes signed with Boras because he was angry losing in arbitration with his former agent.  So I am not altogether sure that he is a mercenary like Corey Seager.  He is due to make $15.5MM in arbitration this year. Offer him $16MM, avoid arbitration, and be done with it.  He is certainly worth 2 fWAR.

Burnes is from Bakersfield, thus AF will not have to deal with East Coast bias from when trying to extend.  Tony Gonsolin was his teammate at St. Mary’s.  There is a lot to like by extending with the Dodgers.

Because Gavin Lux by himself is worth quite a bit more than Adames, the additional return for Burnes could be reasonable.  I am not a fan of the Trade Simulator for Aces like Corbin Burnes.  They have a tendency to low ball rental Aces far more than how MLB teams see them.  Burnes is a Playoff Game 1 starter.  Even for a year.  How much longer will Mookie and Freddie be at the top of their game?

But all of that is moot as Milwaukee is apparently telling everyone that it is highly unlikely that they will trade Burnes this winter.

Now Tyler Glasnow is the pitcher with the most chatter for the Dodgers, and he is also a true rental.

Per multiple MLB “experts” (many unnamed GMs, MLB Advance Scouts, scouting publications), Glasnow has the best stuff of any MLB pitcher when he is healthy.  That has been the downside for Tyler.  He has not been on the field enough.

After the 2023 All Star break, Glasnow started 13 games with 78.1 IP.  That is 6.0 IP/start.  For those 13 starts he had a  3.22 ERA with a very impressive 2.55 FIP.  FIP differs from ERA because it focuses on the factors that the pitcher controls…strikeouts/walks/HBP/HR.  Batters hit .204/.256/.302/.558 and a sustainable .283 BABIP.   What the Dodgers like is hit swing and miss ability.  In his last 13 starts, and 78.1 IP, he had 98 K against only 21 BB.  He also surrendered only 6 HR in that time.

High strikeout, low walk, low HR, and no HBP, thus his FIP was very good.  That is what the Dodgers believe they will get with Glasnow.

Of course there is risk with Glasnow.  There is risk with every pitcher, but I acknowledge that with his medical history, there may be more risk with Glasnow.  There is risk with Buehler/Miller/Pepiot.  There will be risk if they re-sign Kershaw.

But if he is healthy, the Dodgers would have one of the top of the rotation pitchers they need for October 2024.  That is the rotation they are trying to build.  I will comment on the trade if one is made.

I am not afraid of rentals.  The intent of the rental is to get you across the finish line.  Fans may like the young pitchers on the Dodgers, but it seems clear that the Dodgers do not think they are ready to be a playoff rotation. Emmet Sheehan had a rough go in Game 1, and Ryan Pepiot never got into a game.  The Dodgers chose Lance Lynn over Ryan Pepiot in a must win game.

They did not sign Shohei Ohtani to just get to the playoffs.  They now need to build around Ohtani, and it starts with veteran front of the rotation pitchers.

The Dodgers do not like to give pitchers long term contracts.  They have been fortunate not to need front of the rotation pitching during the AF tenure, until this season. Teams do not ordinarily trade top pitchers with multiple years of control. Pablo Lopez was traded to Minnesota with two years of control, the same control as CWS has with Dylan Cease.  The cost?  The 2022 AL batting champ, Luis Arráez.  Arráez went on to win the NL batting crown in 2023.  The Dodgers were pursuing Lopez but could not acquire him because they did not have anyone at the level of Arraez.

Where does AF/BG turn?  Free agents or the trade route.  Risks for both avenues.

Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s agent called Farhan Zaidi and advised him what Steve Cohen’s standing offer was, and Zaidi reportedly pivoted to Jung Hoo Lee. If Yamamoto wants to go with the highest bidder, I find it hard to believe that Cohen would come in 2nd.  So hopefully a top offer to a team like the Dodgers will be significant.

It is also being reported that NYY has made an offer of 9 years and $304MM.  Who knows if that is credible.  However, it wasn’t JP Morosi or JP Hoornstra reporting.

Ryan Pepiot has been a personal favorite of mine since he was drafted.  But he is not the talent of Tyler Glasnow.  If he in fact is traded, I will of course be happy for Pepiot, but I would also feel that his loss might help lead the Dodgers to achieve their goal in 2024.  Emmet Sheehan, Gavin Stone, Landon Knack, Nick Frasso, River Ryan, Justin Wrobleski are all capable of replacing Ryan.  I purposely did not include Michael Grove and Kyle Hurt, as IMO the Dodgers have deduced that they are better utilized in the bullpen.  Hurt could remain stretched out as a starter in OKC to start the season.

Glasnow immediately becomes an extension candidate.  He is from Hart High School in Santa Clarita.  He would also undoubtedly become a Qualifying Offer candidate.

There will be a top of the rotation pitcher on the roster by ST.  I am hopeful for two, but one is an absolute must. And there will be prospects who will have moved on.  Regardless, I am would not be afraid to roll the dice on a rental, even if it cost Ryan Pepiot, Emmet Sheehan, Gavin Stone, Nick Frasso, Landon Knack…

Which ones are traded, and who comes back to LAD?  We will have to wait and see.

 

 

 

 

Jeff Dominique

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Bobby

If you guys had to rank our young arms in terms of who you would hate to trade the most down to “he may not be missed” , how would you rank them? I will assume that Bobby Miller is completely off the table, so I’d rank:

1) Pepoit
2) Sheehan
3) Knack
4) Hurt
5) Stone
6) Ryan

I didn’t include the Payton Martin or Maddux Bruns A ball types in this ranking.

Badger

I’m sure it will come as no surprise that I agree with you on rentals. It’s always about THIS YEAR with me.

As I just posted on the previous thread, my want list has Burnes, Yamamoto and Glasnow on it. I’m also suggesting a 6 man rotation, have been for a few years now as injuries are piling up on MLB pitchers.There’s a Times article this morning dealing with that very issue.

I’m ok with trading Lux and receiving Adames in return if it gets Burnes. I would take Margot if Glasnow comes with him. Whatever happens we will all be happy with it. With Ohtani doing what he did so Friedman could make moves to build a contender I’m confident AF will get it done.

Even though it’s winter, and I’m not a fan of winter, this winter feels very different. It’s good to be a Dodger fan.

tedraymond

I’m sorry, but I don’t understand the fascination with Tyler Glasnow. Badger has mentioned the “projections” for 2024 made by who knows. I’m not questioning Badger, as he is only the messenger, but he has suggested the projected stats were based on his 2nd half performance in 2023. If that is true then I call BS. How do ignore his injury riddled past of never starting more than 13 games or throwing more than 90 innings in those starts? Even in 2023 reaching career highs in starts with 21 with 120 innings that’s worth $25MM? Then there’s “we need a true #1 for the postseason” opinion. Really? In 10 starts he has averaged 4.5 innings along with a 5.72 ERA and a 1.49 WHIP. This is all IF he is healthy. And he is a FA at the end of the 2024 season. A big no thank you to Glasnow.

And why Margot? He has no power (4 HR). He has a career average of .255, a OPS of .694, with a .6 WAR in 2023. He’s due to make $10M in 2024 with a mutual option for $12M in 2025 with a $2M buyout. So, that’s a $12M obligation. The team already has an overpaid player who is more productive and versatile in Chris Taylor.

The Dodgers should be adding to their starting rotation, not substituting pitchers. To give up Pepiot who has several years of control for a possible one year rental with a consistent injury history is wrong in my eyes. Sure, Pepiot was injured last year too. Will that be the first of many injuries in his career? It’s possible. We don’t know that. With Glasnow, it’s a fact he cannot stay healthy for a season. There’s no doubt that Glasnow is a superior pitcher than Pepiot as this point in their careers. The big question is availability.

Jonny Deluca has been mentioned as part of the trade. So, they’re going to consider bringing over Margot for $12M ($10M + 2025 buyout of $2M) I think Jonny has a good chance to come close to the numbers Margot produces and he only makes about $770K in 2024. He would make a nice platoon partner with Heyward in RF. If he is not successful then Taylor is available.

Pepiot and Deluca combined will make approximately $1.5M in 2024. Glasnow and Margot will cost $37M. I don’t think that huge difference in their salaries can be justified with the trade for Glasnow and Margot when you take a realistic, long term view of the situation.

I know I’ve harped on trading prospects for starting pitching. That was to add to the rotation. To take a rotation piece, Pepiot, and trade him isn’t what I had in mind. And, at this point, he is no longer a prospect.

Hopefully, AF can get Yamamoto signed in the next couple of days. If they are going to spend another $30M+ in 2024 then pay Yamamoto. And, you still have Pepiot in the rotation! Or if they still have a desire for Glasnow after signing Yamamoto then OK (like they care what I think… Lol). But, please, no Margot!

OhioDodger

I surely woud not trade Pepiot for one year of Glasnow. And that is one year if he stays healthy. And a doube hell no on Margot.
Sign Imanaga and Montgomery.

Last edited 1 year ago by OhioDodger
OhioDodger

Glasnow and Margot for Pepiot and Deluca makes absolutely no sense both from a baseball standpoint, but from a financial standpoint. $37M for one year of Glasnow and Margot as opposed to $1.6M for Pepiot and Deluca. Use the money to get Imanaga and/or Montgomery.

Badger

I’m responding only to what I’m reading. If it’s just me and Friedman interested in Glasnow, I’ll stand with him. As for who goes back, again, I’ll leave that up to Andy.

I’ve stated several times if it’s up to me I go Burnes, Yamamoto, maybe even Imanaga then Glasnow. As for not believing projections, I would think every single office personnel who is paid to do these things has a book of algorithmic projections on every player on the planet. If you have no projections how the hell are you supposed to know what to pay anybody? These contracts are ALL figured on projections. Glasnow, with electric stuff, is allegedly healthy for the first time in years. If it’s him my stand alone buddy Friedman wants then I’m on board.

Singing the Blue

It seems to me that if the Glasnow/Margot for Pepiot/DeLuca trade was going to happen, it would have happened by now, unless they’re just going back and forth about how much money the Rays are going to kick in to the deal.

Meanwhile, as word gets out that the trade is “on the verge” every other team that has interest in Glasnow texts a stronger offer than the last one they made.

I have no idea if Andrew has any idea of whether he’s going to get YY, but he might be hoping to delay this until he knows. Not getting Yamamoto might make him a little more desperate. And maybe the Rays are willing to wait for that also while at the same time fielding ever more interesting offers from other teams.

If you’re a GM holding Glasnow, Cease or Burnes, you’re in a very good spot right now and will be even better off once Yamamoto is off the board.

Maybe we should sign Imanaga while we’re waiting for a resolution on the other stuff. It’s the kind of move the Braves would make……………….or might still make.

Bluto

Heyman:

“My understanding is the Dodgers aren’t that enthused about Manuel Margot. They’d be more enthused if it was Randy Arozarena, but that’s a lot more prospects.”

“I’m not sure if Margot will be part of this package.” https://abs-0.twimg.com/emoji/v2/svg/1f440.svg

Bobby

Well, whatever we think the deal is done.

Glasnow/Margot for Pepoit/Deluca and Glasnow expected to sign extension

Oldbear48

I absolutely hate this trade. Glasnow, ok, but Margot???? The guy brings nothing to the table. I would have rather kept Pepiot.

Bluto

First a great anecdote about Glasgow:

https://x.com/jeffpassan/status/1341059030383538184

then some good stats:
Among all starters (140) with 250+ IP since 2020, Glasnow is:

3rd in K/9 (12.7)
7th in FIP (3.03)
3rd in xFIP (2.73)
4th in BAA (1.95)
3rd SwStr% (16.1%)
2nd in CSW% (33%)
1st in O-Contact% (34%)
2nd in Stuff+ (134)

OhioDodger

Really happy for Deluca and Pepiot. Now they will get a chance to play everyday and show what they can do.

Badger

I said earlier I would do this trade and the reasons why have been explained clearly by Jeff and STB. This trade makes sense to me. Of course we won’t know how it will work for months but I believe the team is better today. I also believe Friedman is far from being done.

tedraymond

I love being a Dodger fan!

I just read that Glasnow’s extension is for 6 years at $155M guaranteed.

I have no words to comprehend the figures for this signing. First to make this trade and then compound the situation with an extension like this. Wow!

Being a long time Santa Clarita resident and remembering Tyler from his days at Hart High School I guess it’s cool he’s pitching for the Dodgers.

I hope this works out better than the last Hart High graduate AF signed ( T Bauer),

Last edited 1 year ago by tedraymond
OhioDodger

Dodgers extend Glasnow.

The extension will guarantee Glasnow four years and $110MM in new money, reports ESPN’s Jeff Passan, bringing his total contract to five years and $135MM from 2024-28. The contract does not contain any deferred money. Mark Feinsand of MLB.com tweets that the contract also contains a 2029 club option at $30MM. If it’s declined, Glasnow can pick up a $20MM player option.

Now we can only hope he stays healthy.

Last edited 1 year ago by OhioDodger
Badger

I wonder if the Dodgers are working on new and improved get ‘em healthy keep ‘em healthy algorithms?

or maybe they handle it this way:

“Guggenheim Life and Annuity Company operates as an insurance holding company. The Company provides consumer-centric financial services, as well as offers life and annuity, property and casualty, and health insurance solutions.”

Singing the Blue

I assume that if we don’t get Yamamoto, AF will secure another good to very good pitcher such as Burnes, Cease, Montgomery, Luzardo, etc.

What I’m totally uncertain about is the state of the outfield. I know the front office has a plan, but I have no idea what that might be.

Does Margot platoon with JHey, does he spend some time in center against lefties, does he get flipped?

Where does all of this leave Busch and Vargas? Do they platoon in left? Is one of them traded? Are they both traded? Just don’t send them back to OKC. Play them or trade them. I guess that won’t be decided until the pitching is decided because one or both might need to be included in a trade for a pitcher.

I read where we’re in on Hader. I don’t believe that. But Emanuel Clase is available and he’s controllable for up to 5 years at very reasonable salaries. Three years locked in and 2 option years. The Guardians are always looking for hitting. If we sign Yamamoto, maybe we need to decide which guy (Vargas or Busch) we want to keep and include the other in a trade for Clase.

Or trade a boatload of our prospects for Clase and Steven Kwan (the perfect solution for left field).

Oldbear48

I do not think Glasnow makes it through the season with out a trip to the IL> That is my biggest beef with this trade.

RC Dodger

In my view, the Glasnow deal is a great trade for Tampa and a risky trade/extension for the Dodgers. It seems that the starting pitching market is getting quite expensive. I would have preferred many alternatives to the Glasnow deal including:
1) signing Sonny Gray for 3 yrs/$75 million and keeping Pepiot and Deluca without having to carry Margot.
2) Agreeing to Eduardo Rodriguez request for a $20 million option year at trade deadline and having him for 4yrs/$69 million.
3) Signing Lugo for 3yr/ $45 million and Wacha for 2yr/$32 million, retaining Pepiot/Deluca and extending Walker Buehler for 3 years.
4) Sign Imagana for 5yr/ $85 million and keep Pepiot and DeLuca.

Hopefully, the Glasnow trade succeeds as he has the talent to be a top starter in the MLB. But he is 30 yrs old and has not pitched more than 120 innings and 21 starts in a season in his MLB career. I think the extension is an overpay and a huge bet on unproven talent. The Dodgers are only paying Buehler $8 million and he has been a stellar performer for the team and much more accomplished than Glasnow. Where is the extension for Walker who excelled in the postseason and pitched on 3 days rest in the playoffs for this team until he hurt his arm again?
The Dodgers should take care of their own dedicated players first before shelling out huge amounts for outside players, especially those who are unproven.

Bobby

From Fabian Ardaya of the Athletic:

“It turns out that Ohtani had already been pitching the Dodgers’ next move, as sources told The Athletic that the two-way superstar sent Tampa Bay Rays right-hander Tyler Glasnow a video trying to woo him to Los Angeles.

In the video, Shohei Ohtani expressed that he wished he could share a rotation with Glasnow this season. Ohtani won’t pitch for the Dodgers in 2024 as he recovers from elbow surgery). “But,” the superstar said, “I want to hit some home runs for you.”

Badger

I’ve been thinking about why the Dodgers decided to extend Glasnow. Beside the obvious, K/9 over 12, GB% over 50%, 3.2 WAR in only 120 innings, freaky good numbers, but…. do they really need to be that good? He had TJ surgery two years ago and appears to be fully recovered, which is why I assume some projections sites have him throwing 160 innings next year. If he threw 160 innings with those stats pitching for the Dodgers he could win 20. I’m thinking maybe the Dodgers will get him to back off a bit, pitch on the edges, bring that K/9 down to say 9 and save that surgically repaired arm for 3 years of October baseball. They could ask the same of all their pitchers and a rotation of Glasnow, Ohtani, Buehler, Miller and May in ‘25? With that lineup? Yoiks and away!

Last edited 1 year ago by Badger
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