Dodgers on Top 100 Lists

I admit it.  I am more of Fangraphs fan of top prospect evaluations than the others.  It is not that I think the others (BA, BP, MLB, Athletic, and ESPN) are wrong, because I do not.  All publications are ultimately more successful than not in their evaluations. It is just that I think that Fangraphs is more thorough in their evaluation with both current grades and future grades, and dependent as to what position they are expected to play regularly at the MLB level.  They also differentiate between raw power and game power.  Raw power grades how far a player can hit a baseball, while game power translates that raw power into a projection of how many HRs the player may hit in his career.

YES.  Before I get too far into it, prospect rankings are a guess work…up to a point.  They do not always project heart, drive, work ethic, willingness to change/learn (James Outman vs Jeren Kendall), or a cupboard filled with other intangible traits.  Each of the publications has their own methodology in their grading process.  But none of them take into consideration the intangibles.  How do you grade intangibles?  How does a player like Austin Gauthier go from UDFA from Hofstra, to knocking on the door of MLB after only 2.5 professional years.  Or on the other side of the spectrum, Jeren Kendall who had all the baseball skills, but something was sure missing.  Or from a pitching point of view, Yadier Álvarez.

While all publications grade the players’ skills, Fangraphs continues their assessment by appraising where that player will ultimately play at MLB, and whether his requisite skills play at that position.

Primary columnist/evaluator at each of the publications that I chronicle.

• MLB Pipeline – Jonathan Mayo, Jim Callis, and Sam Dykstra
• BA – JJ Cooper, Carlos Collazo, with Kyle Glaser the primary LAD evaluator
• Fangraphs – Eric Logenhagen
• ESPN – Kiley McDaniel
• Athletic – Keith Law
• Baseball Prospectus – Ben Zeidman, primary LAD evaluator

There are other publications that I peruse (Bleacher Report, Baseball 2080, Prospects Live, CBS, Medium), but the six above are the best (IMO), and with a proven track record.

Every one of these journalist/evaluators is a quality baseball man, with far more knowledge in grading MiLB talent than me, and dare I say, everyone else reading this post.  That does not mean we cannot differ with them.  I differ with them all the time.  I try to always give a reason.

As a for instance, all publications (and I think everyone here other than me) thinks Maddux Bruns is a backend to mid-rotation (ceiling) starter prospect.  I have never believed he could gain enough control to go more than an inning or two.  His stuff is legit which makes him an absolute threat as a backend high leverage reliever.  He has already had a delivery adjustment.  It may have helped some, but not enough…yet.  For 22 year old prospects, yet is an important qualifier.  His pitches did not suffer at all with the delivery adjustment.  He has gone from over the top pitcher (HS) to more of a ¾ arm delivery.  Lot less herky-jerky.  More consistent delivery.  But not enough…yet.

Last year, Fangraphs graded him as a 45 (#5 Starter), but also included his huge relief risk because of his lack of control.  It will be very interesting to see how he is graded this year and what the scouting report is.  His control was graded at 20.

Before I go any further, here is a cheat sheet as to how the 20-80 FV grades relate to the player’s ultimate value as a player in MLB.

Last year the Dodgers had 11 prospects to be included on at least 1 publication’s top 100 prospect list.  There were 4 consensus picks: Diego Cartaya, Bobby Miller, Miguel Vargas, and Gavin Stone.  This year, there is one: Dalton Rushing.

This year many of the publications continued with their lists past 100 including those just about ready to break in, or just fell out and can get back in with a good bounce back season.

The highest ranking of any Dodger Prospect was River Ryan at #19 with Fangraphs. He was also a top 35 with Athletic at #33.  Josue De Paula is the only other LAD prospect to be named in two top 50 lists: Athletic #25 and Baseball Prospectus (#48).  The only other top 50 ranking was Rushing at #36 in Baseball Prospectus.

Nick Frasso made 4 top 100 lists.  Josue De Paula and Thayron Liranzo made 3 lists.  River Ryan, Diego Cartaya, Andy Pages, and Gavin Stone were named on 2 lists.  Kyle Hurt and Joendry Vargas made 1 list.

It should be noted that Ryan actually was included in 5 publications, with 3 being in the just missed category.

Courtesy of Eric Stephen (why reinvent the wheel – Eric has done it), here is a composite list of the LAD prospects named to the premier baseball publications.

Three catchers, three RHP, 2 OF, and 1 SS.  One of the catcher’s, one of the OF, and the SS are several years away from being able to contribute at the MLB level for the Dodgers.

2 – LAD Drafted – Dalton Rushing and Gavin Stone

3 – Trade – River Ryan, Nick Frasso, and Kyle Hurt

5 – IFA – Josue De Paula, Thayron Liranzo, Diego Cartaya, Andy Pages, and Joendry Vargas

Some observations:

• River Ryan has exploded onto the publication prospect lists. Ryan is the one to watch for the future SP in the LAD rotation.  He has four potential plus pitches (60 or more).  He still needs to establish and maintain good control and command, but with how far he has come in such a short amount of time, I am not betting against him.

• Two who are looking for big time bounce back years – Diego Cartaya and Gavin Stone. I am not about to give up on Cartaya who turned 22 in September.  It takes most catchers longer than pitchers and other position players to become MLB ready.  While Cartaya’s offense took a hit last year at AA (as a 21 year old), he greatly improved in game day strategy, leading the pitcher/catcher pre game discussions.  He is becoming a leader, which a catcher needs to master.  I have no idea if Cartaya goes back to Tulsa, but I am guessing he does with Feduccia and Okey at OKC.

• Gavin Stone also needs a bounce back season. He had a fantastic buildup in his three level move in 2022, from Great Lakes to Tulsa to OKC, and he performed brilliantly at all three rocketing to the top of the LAD prospect list including a consensus top 100 pick before 2023.  Unfortunately his MLB season did not translate well from his 2022 season, and he has tumbled in the prospect listings.  This year, Stone will either be the #5 starter (beating out Emmit Sheehan and Ryan Yarbrough) or he will be back in OKC working his way back.  I have not made it a secret that I prefer Emmet Sheehan to Gavin Stone, but that should not be construed as I do not like Stone. Quite the contrary.  I just think he is too far down a very deeeeep LAD rotation.

• After his injury plagued season, Andy Pages went from 4 Top 100 lists down to 2. What is interesting is that the two he is named this year (BA and ESPN) were not lists he was projected as a top 100 prospect in 2023.  Go Figure.

• Dalton Rushing went from 3 top 100 lists to the only consensus LAD top 100 prospect. He needs to improve his game calling/receiving and blocking skills, but has a tremendous arm to hold back the run game.  Defensively, Baseball Prospectus favorable compares him to Will Smith at comparable stages.

• Thayron Liranzo – And yet another catcher in the cadre of top LAD prospects. Another bat first catcher who also exploded to the top in 2023.  Liranzo is another big arm catcher that needs a lot of improvement in receiving and framing.  I am not nearly as concerned with framing.  Receiving is far more important.

• Josue De Paula is all over the map in the evaluators eyes. From #25 (Athletic) to off the list for Fangraphs and MLB Pipeline.  I understand Fangraphs for the reasons stated above.  MLB Pipeline is also reticent to hyping a teenage hit first player.  They were also slow on acknowledging Miguel Vargas.

• Joendry Vargas and Kyle Hurt made their first top 100 appearances, and not surprisingly, both from Fangraphs. It should be the first of many for Vargas.

• Unfortunately this will be a lost year for Nick Frasso. This was supposed to be the year that he showed LAD that he could go deeper in games.  Lengthen his outings as a starter.  Shoulder injuries are not easy to come back from, but many pitchers do so successfully.  The issue facing Frasso is that he will be trying to comeback as a SP at 26 in 2025.  There was a lot of reliever risk before for Nick.  This only expands on the “fear”.

Kiley McDaniel is one of many Fangraphs graduates, and is now the ESPN Baseball Analyst (and a very good one – IMO).  I continue to promote his book, Future Value, co-authored with Fangraphs Eric Logenhagen.  If you want to learn how prospect lists are put together and what scouts look for, this is your book.  I cannot recommend it enough.

One of the interesting points in this year’s ESPN top prospect list is the inclusion of a list of all FV 40 prospects in a section he labels “Quality Depth”.  I have often written that the Dodgers farm system is often graded very high, not because of the elite prospects, but because of their depth.  Many of their prospects actually make a MLB roster.  This year the Dodgers are ranked #1 in Quality of Depth because they have more players with a 40 FV than any other team (40).  Kiley ranks every player with a 45+ FV and the Dodgers have 10 of those.  That is another way of saying that the Dodgers have 10 of the top 179.  8 of the top 115 and 9 of top 141.  The closest team is Minnesota with 37 40 FV or better and Boston with 34.  The Cubs are the closest team in the NL with 33.

He has six with a 45 grade who are just beginning their climb, and could very well crack his top 100 mid-year or before 2025: Thayron Liranzo – C, Emil Morales – SS (top LAD  IFA pick in 2024), Trey Sweeney – SS, Kendall George – CF, Payton Martin – RHP, and Jackson Ferris – LHP.