Did Scott Boras Get Schooled This Offseason?

Prior to the Cody Bellinger signing with the Cubs, we were heading into the final week of February, with all teams playing at least one Spring Training game.  The top 5 remaining free agents at that time were all Scott Boras clients:

• Cody Bellinger
• Blake Snell
• Jordan Montgomery
• Matt Chapman
• JD Martinez

The Dodgers, Phillies, Braves, and Cardinals jumped out the gate with multiple moves.  The Phillies set the bar for 30+ year old elite pitchers, signing their own FA RHP, Aaron Nola, to a 7 year $172MM contract on 11/19/2023.

The Braves did not make noise with signing elite free agents, but they did take on bad contracts to be able to trade for desirable players.

• Jarred Kelenic
• Chris Sale
• Aaron Bummer
• David Fletcher – NRI expected to make team

Although, Atlanta did sign Reynaldo López on FA contract, and Luis Guillorme.

St. Louis immediately jumped on Kyle Gibson (11/21/2023), Lance Lynn (11/21/2023), and Sonny Gray (11/27/2023).

But the Dodgers broke the standard by signing Shohei Ohtani and Yoshi Yamamoto, and committing to more than $1 Billion in salaries.  Scott Boras was giddy.  He could see the $$$$ mount. If Ohtani is worth $700MM, then Belli has to be worth north of $250MM.  If a pitcher who has never pitched a MLB game gets a record $325MM contract, just how much is 2-time CY winner Blake Snell and WS Champion, Jordan Montgomery worth?

Earlier last week, some baseball journalists were pontificating which of the top four free agents would entertain a short term contract.  It was opined that Snell (31), Montgomery (31), and Chapman (31) had already passed the age to take short term deals, and were looking for that one last big deal.  OTOH, Bellinger is playing at baseball age 28, and should be able to get another bite at the apple with a short term contract this year.

Thus, Bellinger broke the stalemate, but it sure was not close to that $250MM+ contract Boras was pushing.  $80MM for 3 years is a tad south of $27MM per year.   It is a good AAV, but teams are not going to go 9 figures and long term for a questionable Cody Bellinger.

Why are teams so sheepish on giving Belli that long term deal?  Teams are still unsure about who the real Belli is.  Here is Belli’s 2023 statcast.  Focus in on:

• Average Exit Velocity
• Barrel %
• Hard Hit %

Cody Bellinger 2023 Statcast

Now look at who Cody Bellinger was in 2022.

Cody Bellinger 2022 Statcast

Teams are apparently concerned that with Bellinger’s poor output in the hard hit and barrel categories in 2023, whether he can sustain the progress he made last year or revert back to 2022.  They are paying him short term based on what he did last year, but neither the Cubs nor any other team were willing to commit to a $250MM deal over the long term.

Bellinger can opt out after both years.  Will he?  He does like playing in Chicago.  However, next year’s free agent class is not particularly good.

While Blake Snell is a 2-time CY winner, for his other years he did not get a vote.  While he had a wonderful year in 2023, he also led MLB in walks.  The Yankees made an offer of 6 years for $150MM, showing optimism that he might be able to pitch at the elite level over that span, but not enough to give him near what was believed to be Boras’ asking price.  – 9 years and $270MM.  Sure, that is asking, but teams looking to sign Boras clients are very few to begin with, and with LAD and ATL not looking to sign Boras clients on long term deals, that really limits the number of teams in on the bidding.  And this year, with the expected reduced local TV revenues, those teams might be willing to pay for Ohtani and Yamamoto, but not 31 year old pitchers with limited control and two years of excellent pitching.

Jordan Montgomery was believed to want to return to Texas, but right now, that is not going to happen.  He is willing to go back to NYY but NYY was not as inviting.  St. Louis had already made their starting rotation additions.  Philadelphia resigned Aaron Nola, and has a very good rotation.  NYM is not willing to spend on a 31 year old pitcher for long term and Carlos Rodón $$$.  Montgomery’s wife is working her residency in a Boston hospital, and many thought that Boston was the logical landing spot.  Unfortunately, this is the year that Boston is trying to be “financially responsible and sustainable.”  Should he expect to get the same deal as Aaron Nola?  Same baseball age. Same overall career.  Both workhorses.  Except Nola is a strikeout pitcher and Montgomery is a control soft contact pitcher.  To offset that, Monty is left handed which is a premium teams are willing to pay for.

Boston would like to sign Monty, but not until his price comes down significantly.  Could Boras been able to get Monty signed early?  Would St. Louis have been willing to pay a premium for Montgomery before they signed Gray, Gibson, and Lynn?  Could he have made a deal with Texas taking into consideration the short term cash flow concerns because of the local TV revenues?  Texas is very concerned about their short term csh flow because they are not going to get their revenue from a bankrupt Diamond Sports Group.  The Rangers will be working on a new TV deal, and with a WS Championship, that could have been a significant consideration.  But it is not done, and the owners are trying to be financially responsible, with a payroll already over the CBT tier 1.

. Matt Chapman?  I do believe he has been hampered by the Qualifying Offer more than any of the other free agents.  Chapman is a game changer with the glove, but not necessarily with the bat.  Teams are not willing to overpay for the glove AND lose a draft pick (or two).  San Francisco, Chicago Cubs, Seattle, Arizona, and Toronto were the most likely pursuers for Chapman.  San Francisco values defense, and Manager Bob Melvin was Chapman’s manager in Oakland.  Arizona already addressed 3B with their trade for Eugenio Suarez.  Seattle said they are out of the Chapman negotiations unless the price really drops.  Chicago just signed Bellinger.  For whatever reason, Toronto is not overwhelmed with the idea of Chapman returning to them.  They thought that Chapman could be the missing piece on a championship team, but he was not.  It was not Chapman’s fault of course, but he did not help either.

I still think that Chapman will sign with SF, but nowhere near where Boras believed he should be.  You might also wonder after JDM saying he did not want to play in SF, how would that impact Chapman.  I take that not because of the City, but Oracle Park being a terrible hitting stadium.  It just sucks the power out of players.  Barry Bonds does not count.  He could hit them out of the Grand Canyon.

JDM – How many teams want a fulltime DH?  Arizona went out of their way letting everyone know they wanted to sign a fulltime DH.  Most figured it would be JDM because of how he hit there in 2017.  Instead, Arizona went with Joc Pederson for a one-year, $12.5MM guarantee. Joc will receive a $9.5MM salary next season and is due a $3MM buyout on a 2025 mutual option valued at $14MM.  Would JDM have accepted that?  Would Arizona been willing to offer it?  Perhaps, Boras has waited too long to get JDM signed.  Toronto sign Justin Turner to be their primary DH.  SF signed Jorge Soler to be their primary DH.  Dodgers?  They have a DH in the name of Shohei Ohtani.  His options are…LAA, NYM,???

Boras definitely missed the market for Belli, and probably has for Snell, Montgomery, and JDM.  But Boras has been used to pulling off the impossible in the past, so with Boras, never say never.

Cue the collusion charges by Boras after the free agents are signed.