When he first arrived on the scene, Gavin was supposed to be the next big thing. His skills as a hitter in the minors were well documented. The kid could definitely hit. Question at the time was could he play SS every day at the major league level.
But the team could not help but be impressed by his performance at AA and AAA in 2019. .347/.421/.607 with an OPS of 1.028. 26 homers and 76 driven in. He was called up and hit .240 in 23 games for the NL West Champs.
It was anticipated that he would get some playing time with the big club in 2020. But then the pandemic happened, and the plans were scrambled for every team. Lux did get into 15 games in the truncated season. He hit .175 with 3 homers and 8 driven in.
He got 1 at bat in the postseason, against the Padres in the NLDS. He struck out. With hopes of getting him more at bats with Seager entrenched at SS, the Dodgers had him playing in the outfield. He was also playing second base.
The Dodgers traded for Trea Turner at the deadline in 21, and Lux played 59 games at SS, 27 at second and 19 in the outfield in 21, He hit .242 in 102 games with 7 homers and 46 RBIs. He played in all 5 playoff games against the Giants and went 3-9. He was 0-5 against the Braves in the NLCS.
Seager left via free agency, but the Dodgers had Trea Turner move back to SS and Lux became the primary second baseman. He did get into 9 games at SS, but he played 28 games in the outfield. He improved at the plate and hit .276. He led the league in triples with 7.
Just before spring training in 23, it was announced that Lux would be the regular SS. But just in case, LA traded for Miguel Rojas to be his backup and mentor. But then during a spring training game, Lux tore his ACL and was ruled out for the season. A major setback for the player and the team.
Instead of trading for another SS, the Dodgers would use Rojas as the starter for a bulk of the games in 23. He would share time with Taylor when he was healthy, but Chris had injury issues of his own, so they reacquired Kike Hernandez and then traded for Amed Rosario. But Rajos got most of the work.
The 23-season ended for the team on a sour note. Lux in the meantime spent most of the year rehabilitating. Again, over the winter, many thought the Dodgers would sign a SS and move Lux to second. Instead, the Dodgers signed Teo, Ohtani and Yamamoto.
Management again named Lux the everyday SS and that is where things stood going into spring training. His DP partner would be Mookie Betts. Betts had been playing games at second at times during the 23 season, and he was very comfortable there.
Miguel Vargas, who had started at second in place of Lux in 23, was moved to 3rd and the outfield. Mostly the outfield with Muncy back at third. Lux once again had problems during spring training at SS and shortly before the season began, they moved him to second, and Betts became the starting SS.
We have watched this season as Lux had some trouble getting back to where he was as a hitter. It wasn’t until the second half that Lux seemed to finally find his stroke. Over the first 78 games, Gavin was hitting .213. He had 3 homers and 26 driven in.
The plus side was that he was playing good defense at second base. In July, his bat heated up. He hit .299 in July. He hit 4 homers and drove in 13 runs, in August, he hit .296 with 4 more homers and drove in 11 runs.
He has not been able to replicate that success in September. He is hitting .156 as of the second game in Miami. Now with their win over Miami today, the Dodgers are heading to the playoffs for the 12th consecutive year.
So, what is ahead for Lux as a Dodger? He will obviously get plenty of reps in this year’s playoffs. His performance will probably have a lot of impact on what role he might play in the future.
A lot will depend on where the Dodgers decide to play Mookie Betts next season. There is little doubt Mookie prefers the infield. But he also said how difficult the transition to SS was.
Will LA go after a free agent SS? Would they consider trading for someone like Bichette? The talent at SS in the system is in the low minors. Rojas is a better fit as an occasional starter there and other infield positions.
My personal feeling is that Lux might well be trade bait, especially if they can get a front-line starter in return. I have a feeling that Mookie will move back to the infield, but at second base, not SS. Betts is going to be 32 next season, and moving to the infield full time will take a lot of stress off of his legs running all over the outfield. And as noted, Mookie loves being closer to the action.
Lux’s future as a Dodger will be decided this winter. They could try the outfield experiment again, but Lux does not show enough power to be a full-time outfielder.
50-50
With maybe the best ever single game performance in Dodger history, Shohei Ohtani reached the 50-50 mark in homers and stolen bases. And he did that one better with 3 homers to reach 51 and 2 stolen bases to reach 51. He was 6-6 with 2 doubles, 3 homers, 10 runs driven in and he scored 4 runs. The Dodgers romped over the Marlins, 20-4. It was the Dodgers 91st win of the season, and they picked up one-half game on the Padres upping their lead to 4 games.
Is there any historical precedent for AF trading a player like Lux?
Is Busch an analogue? I don’t think so because he was a prospect not a young vet.
Bichette is only 26 and signed next year for $17 million. It was a disastrous season for him and Lux has been considerably better than him but where does he fit on this team. I’d consider that switch. Bichette in Lux out. Probably a conversation for winter but next season I think it might be time to move Mookie in and trade Lux. Heck I already traded him. Got a minor league starter that has come in handy the last several weeks.
I think Ohtani listened to my advice. He managed the strike zone much better today, don’t you think?
I cheated and read this before it was published, and wanted to comment. Admittedly I was very disappointed that the Dodgers chose Lux (and Mitch White) over Bichette, but once that was done, I was a Lux fan. I hoped that Seager would sign a long term extension and be the LAD SS for years. IMO, Lux was always destined for 2B.
After his disastrous start in 2024, he seemingly turned it around after a visit to his uncle Augie, at the ASB. It worked for two months, but he gives the impression that he is reverting back to his pre ASB at-bats. Maybe the Dodgers can bring out Uncle Augie before the playoffs.
I think Mookie moves back to 2B next year which is where he prefers. IMO it is irrelevant whether Mookie can play SS or CF. He is most comfortable at 2B and has said so. Since he is not a SS or OF, that makes Lux a prominent trade target for this winter. While Lux is no longer a prospect, assuming Mookie moves back to 2B, he also does not have a position and makes him available, as was Michael Busch.
But that is for the offseason speculation. For now, we are all hoping Gavin figures it out.
Good food for thought, Bear.
I agree that Mookie is destined to move back to the infield, and much more likely to move to second than shortstop.
Lux will not be our starting shortstop, nor do I think they will try the outfield thing with him again.
Only answer then is to trade him.
You mention that they might get a frontline pitcher for him. That’s where I disagree. They will never get a “frontline” pitcher in return for Lux. But I do see a trade in his future, not so much because they’ll give up on him, but rather because they will choose to make Mookie happy over Gavin.
Shoei Othani!What can you say?
Greatest player of all time ? A very good case can already be made .
Hits for power like The Babe, pitches like a Cy Young contender, runs the bases like Ty Cobb.
This guy already 3 HOF players rolled into one!
Go Dodgers!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Since RBI became official in 1920, only one MLB player has had, over the course of his entire career (same game or not)
a game with 10 RBI
a game with 6 hits
a game with 5 XBH
a game with 3 HR
a game with 2 SB
That would be Shohei. And he did it all in a single game.
Quietly, through it all, Tommy Edman has been rock solid since they traded for him.
Thanks for this write up Bear. It will be interesting to see what becomes of Lux this offseason. It certainly seems like in order for Betts to move back to the infield Lux will have to be moved. I was a fan of Lux the first couple of years with the Dodgers. Many were disappointed with him because he was a superstar right from the get go. I was OK with him being a solid, everyday 2B. But, even that hasn’t happened. He gives off a bad vibe to me. His performance a couple of games ago was really head scratching. I think his issues are between his ears. He seems to lose focus.
It may have been discussed but I have not heard it anywhere as of yet. If Ohtani had a hook slide into 3rd base, he would have also hit for the cycle yesterday.
Lux is one of our younger guys and cheap so they keep him. He is a platoon player who hit 2 months and has generally been good as a defender. He is serviceable with not an exorbitant salary. When hot he hits righties but can’t hit lefties. I just hope he can be hot in the playoffs. I think we could move him for a younger piece moving Mookie to second. If Mookie wants second base they move him. He doesn’t move the needle for me.
I was reminded this morning, by podcast, that Texas basically with two starters (Montgomery and Eovaldi) and three relievers.
in 2016 Cleveland just used three starters and three relievers to great success.
Teams whittle down staffs and get lucky with hitting.
lets hope the Dodgers can.
Per Hembekides:
Never hit 50 HR in a season: Henry Aaron, Albert Pujols, Frank Robinson, Harmon Killebrew, Reggie Jackson
Never stole 50 bases in a season: Paul Molitor, Omar Vizquel, Derek Jeter, Rod Carew, Willie Mays
Good baseball pro article on Will Smith’s improvement in throwing runners out and how that has negatively impacted his framing.
in the eyes of the analytically inclined this is a negative:
($$$$)
https://www.baseballprospectus.com/news/article/93921/cold-takes-will-smith-found-a-new-strength/
It’s been a while since I played fantasy baseball. But the elite hitters in that scoring system scored 6 ppg or so.
4 points for a homer, 3 for triple etc.
1 for a run. 1 for an RBI.
2 for a SB.
By my math Ohtani had 35 points in last night’s game LOL. I mean, it’s like having a 100 point game in the NBA. It never happens.
I think Mookie moves back to 2B next year which is where he prefers. IMO it is irrelevant whether Mookie can play SS or CF. He is most comfortable at 2B and has said so. Since he is not a SS or OF, that makes Lux a prominent trade target for this winter. Jeff D.
I agree completely with Jeff’s rationale.
Lux lacks range at 2nd and seems to be a deer in the headlights during most of his at bats.
Dodgers will regret trading Yarbrough. He was the one guy in the pen capable of pitching multiple innings. They will also regret cutting Heyward loose. Although Kiermaier has been a solid defender, Heyward has had some bit hits for the Astros. Other players they traded have not fared so well. Sweeney is hitting .224 in Detroit, but he does have 4 bombs, and he has played solid D at SS. Miguel Vargas has been a total bust in Chicago. He is hitting .110 for the Sox.
I recall Shawn Green having a monster game against the Brewers. Can’t remember how many total bases but 17 keeps coming to my mind.
I do believe they go after Adames or Francisco Liriano in the off season to get there shortstop set then move Rojas and like Kiki to play second base and Edman moves to Centerfield or floats around becoming the new Chris Taylor but better. Betts stays in Rightfield and they have to resign Teoscar and Pages just is there to play anywhere in the outfield and they have to get starting pitching that won’t have arm problems so ohtani Yamamoto Stone Flarethy and who else I say Max Fried or maybe someone else but let Kershaw go and Buehler will go to the Giants how about the take a stab at Corbin Burnes but get pitchers that won’t get hurt that woild be the off season for the didgers and find out why the have so many pitchers needing Tommy John surgury
Freidman threw some ice water on those thinking Ohtani might pitch in the playoffs. He told Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register that Ohtani pitching in the playoffs was not really an option. He said that pitching wise, this is like January to him, and he is barely a year removed from having TJ surgery.
Those who wanted the Dodgers to trade for Crochet, he is 0-4 over his last 7 games with an ERA of 7.32. 0-7 over his last 15 games, ERA well above 4.
Edman would be one of the best utility players in baseball if AF could build a team that pushes him to a utility guy.
I think Lux is traded in the off-season.
Outman has good defense in CF and good hitting against RHP despite what he did this year and I think Doc got in his head. Doc won’t let him hit against LHP which is a shame because he has a small sample. I think AF is looking to keep a loaded offense in 2025 and look for a Juan Soto offer in the off-season, possibly a Bichette offer. Soto and Bichette fit the profile of an AF position player. It will be a shame if Outman doesn’t get a shot to be an everyday outfielder next year on a loaded offensive team.
Did you see I mentioned Outman’s defense? I do care about defense even though nobody believes I do, but I want hitting also in that player, that’s why I’m not bitching about Rojas or even Edman.
I see Mark over there on his blog is still taking cheap shots at me. All over what I said about Miguel Vargas between 2022 and 2023. What a pathetic guy. Take a look at what Vargas has done in Chicago and for that matter his career. Mark thinks he knows it all, but he’s a narcissist pathetic know it all childish little boy. I tried to make peace with him, but he couldn’t and wouldn’t do it. Simple equation: Respect my opinions, don’t say smart ass shit to me and don’t attack me = I won’t bother you.
The starting pitching in the playoffs is probably going to be a weakness, but the bullpen is strong, but it will have a hole or 2. The team’s destiny will be determined by Doc’s bullpen decisions in the playoffs. Hope for the best.
Casperius up, Logue down
The pitching conversation: The medical and training staff need to be fired, I’m sorry for saying that, but this is ridiculous how many Dodger pitchers go down to injury. Also somebody or some people in the minors need to teach these minor league pitchers while they’re in the minors how to pitch like Greg Maddux instead of relying on throwing hard, if it’s possible and let them go 7+ innings in the minors to get them ready for MLB.
That catch on Charlie Blackmon’s fly ball is one BIG reason as to why Mookie will play 2B in 2025.
I can’t tell who I am less excited to see (non-Bobby Miller) in the playoffs:
Chris Taylor or Joe Kelly
per Craig G:
BB, 2B, BB, FC (RBI), K, HBP, K
possibly the platonic ideal of a Joe Kelly inning
https://x.com/azfreedman/status/1837317548905279641?s=46
Trading Lux would be a colossal mistake unless they got proven talent back. Anyone who has coached for a while knows that the player usually comes full circle on the second year after a horrific injury. That has been seen through professional sports since professional sports started. That been said some players never come back. My bet is Lux comes back stronger, It take time to recover missing a full season at an elite level. Keep Lux unless you can get a 1-3 rotation starter.
Andy Pages is making a statement.
A player I have been following since he was signed out of the DR in 2018 is RHP Jerming Rosario. He was signed with Diego Cartaya and Alex De Jesus. Jerming was promoted to OKC to finish off the season, and pitched 5.0 innings (93 pitches) in Salt Lake City tonight, certainly not a pitcher’s paradise. He allowed 4 runs on 3 hits, 6 BB, and 5 K. With Wrobleski (23), Ferris (20), Rosario (22) all likely OKC starters to start 2025, and with Chris Campos (23) just behind, there should be plenty of depth next year as well. Jared Karros just behind Campos. There are multiple reliever options that will be considered, including Edgardo Henriquez who should make the team out of ST.
I will talk more on this when I do an autopsy of the LAD affiliates for 2024.
Woo-Hoo!! Big win. Dodgers now 4 games up on the Brewers for the #2 seed.
I didn’t get to watch the game, so I’m just commenting based on the box score.
I’m surprised Edman didn’t start at 2B instead of Kike, Edman hits LHP better.
Glad to see Pages starting against a LHP, he got a HR. It’s hard to ignore his slashline against LHP .357/.396/.520/.916
Three HR’s given up by the bullpen, can’t let that happen in the playoffs. I don’t feel like checking if Doc went against the stats with his bullpen decisions.
Dodgers might not sign Soto, but I would be willing to bet they kick the tires on him. Would be foolish not too. Umpire tonight was awful. I saw at least 10 pitches called strikes that were balls. Considering it was a bullpen game, the pen did well. 3 homers were all solo shots. Pages is still no centerfielder.
Since the inception of the DH, I have been a proponent of one guy as the permanent DH, in the lineup, every day. Just put him in the lineup and leave him alone. No platooning banjo hitters or giving a regular a day. Make it a real position. A weapon.
I thought Edgar Martinez was my guy. The prototypical guy for what a DH should be.
Now it’s Edgar 5.0. Shohei impacts a game like no other player ever and from a DH position. Nobody’s ever been this hot.
*I admit I dislike bullpen games. But last night was very entertaining. Our sometimes maligned bullpen got through 9 innings with 3 runs scored and 14 or 15 K’s.
There aren’t many MLB bullpens that can do that.
Some thoughts:
*I’ve had enough of Joe Kelly (this version is Joe, not Joseph). He’s just an untrustworthy Head-Case.
*Graterol looks great. I think his stuff is improved. Remember back when he had trouble finishing off a hitter? The reason was, that while his fastball is 100, it was straight. Well that’s not what I’m seeing now. His fastball has some serious arm-side run. I’m not sure what he changed, like a grip, but his fastball has new life.
*Some Fans give Pages grief for his “interesting”play in center, but he’s not a centerfielder and he can hit LHP. He needs to be on the playoff roster for this very reason. If he never sees the defensive field, this playoff season, fine but he needs to a a LHB off the bench.
*A lot has been speculated here about Teoscar’s future. I think Bear and others think he will be too expensive for the Dodgers with a 3 or 4 year deal. Probably true but I’d love to see him back. I think he has been better than expected. Yes, he strikes out a lot. The Dodgers knew that by his record with the Mariners. But he’s flourished here like he never could in another situation. Maybe he would consider a Dodger offer to stay with the club?
*I swear when I saw the Rockies lineup and saw Chuck Nasty in the lineup, I knew he’d do something. I thought, every time I see this guy, he homers. He owns us.
Sure enough, he hit one out.
Later, the announcers said that Chuck is in 5th place among active players, against the Dodgers, with 25.. I thought so.
*So when the Rockies put in the RHP, bottom 7, obviously KIke was coming out. So Doc had his pick of left-handed 2nd baseman. He chose Edman over Lux.
*Edman just a baseball player. I love this guy. He does everything correctly on the field that allows him to maximize his skills. He impacts the game by out hustling his opponent. Even the slide into 2nd on his steal was perfect. Face away from the catcher’s throw, front foot straight to the bag, no over-slide or crashing into the base and coming off. No threat off turning an ankle. He just plays the game the right way.
Fun game. Nice win. Great bullpen.