With respect to Juan Soto, while the Mets, Yankees, Blue Jays, and Red Sox were reported to be in the $700 million range, the Dodgers were not. Reports circulated before Soto signed that the Dodgers were in the $600 million range. On Monday, The Athletic revealed that $600 million is exactly as high as the Dodgers went.
“But in this instance, a league source said that the Dodgers capped their offer to Soto at $600 million,” The Athletic wrote.
The Dodgers always believed that they were a longshot, but they would stay in the hunt just in case. $765MM was nowhere near where LAD wanted to go. Nor should they have.
Every poll I saw with regards to LAD fans, the LAD fans were overwhelmingly in favor of not signing Soto. At $765MM, the poll of LAD fans should now be unanimous.
That is $51MM AAV for 15 years. Soto will need to average 6.375 fWAR over the full 15 years to financially justify his contract. As special as he is with a bat (and he is very special), he is not a good defensive player. He has a career -15 DRS (Fangraphs) as an OF and a -24 OAA (Statcast).
Soto is also not a good baserunner. Ohtani had 59 SB last year, while Soto has 57 in his career.
Soto has nowhere near the marketing boost that Shohei Ohtani has (nobody does), and is not likely to generate anywhere near the additional revenues that Ohtani does. Admittedly, Soto is an extremely popular player in the Dominican. But that does not have the same cache as does Ohtani in Japan. Soto as a NYY was not in the top 20 jersey sales for 2024. Will he be with NYM?
Thus, Soto needs to justify the contract in baseball terms. In his first seven years in MLB, Soto has generated 36.3 fWAR, or an average of 5.19 fWAR. That is outstanding, but not 6.375. Soto has eclipsed that fWAR in 2 of his 7 years (2021 and 2024). He got close with 6.0 in 2023.
Soto’s total present value contract with NYM is $765MM, while Ohtani’s is $461MM.
Ohtani first seven years – .282/.371/.575/.945, 157 OPS+, 43.8 bWAR
Soto first seven years – .285/.419/.569/.989, 160 OPS+, 36.4 bWAR
Soto has an edge with OBP, with all the other slash lines comparable. The difference in bWAR is because Ohtani is a CY level pitcher in addition to his offense. Yet, Soto is now making more than $300MM in net present value of his contract. Is there any way Soto is worth more than $300MM than Ohtani? Forget the pitching. Is Soto worth $300MM more than Ohtani just considering his offense? I submit , NO.
Mookie Betts is arguably one of the top 5 players in MLB. Mookie’s present value of his 12 year contract is $307MM. In his 9.07 years of service, Mookie is batting .289/.372/.491/.863, 145 OPS+. Now take into consideration that Mookie is a 6 X GG winner, 7 SS awards, MVP, batting title, and Wilson Overall Defensive Player of the Year. And yet Soto is grossing more than double than what Betts is grossing.
Good for Soto inking that contract. Can’t fault him. But for me, I would rather have Mookie and Shohei for $768MM (present value) rather than $765MM for only Juan Soto. Yeah, I think Andrew Friedman and Mark Walter know what they are doing.
NYY is going to need to do something to offset the loss of Juan Soto. They have already signed Max Fried to an 8 year $218MM deal. They still need to add pieces other than Soto. They need a 1B (Christian Walker?), a 3B (Nolan Arenado?) so Jazz Chisholm can move to 2B, an OF LF (Cody Bellinger?, Anthony Santander?, Teo Hernández?), back of the bullpen high leverage reliever (Tanner Scott?).
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I have read a lot of rush negative comments on the Dodgers signing Michael Conforto. 1 year $17MM vs 3 years and $72MM (most current estimate). Is Conforto an equal to Teoscar Hernández? No. But there is a lot to like.
Conforto appeared in 130 games with the Giants last season, hitting .237, posting a .759 OPS and 112 wRC+. He also hit 20 home runs and 27 doubles while driving in 66 runs.
When he was with the Mets in the late 2010’s, Conforto looked to be emerging as a potential superstar. He posted two seasons with a fWAR of 4.2 and had three seasons of 27+ home runs. He had a 147 wRC+ in 2017 and a career-high 158 wRC+ in 2020. Unfortunately, injuries derailed his career a bit over the years.
I do not believe it is a secret that Oracle Park is one of the worst hitters park in MLB. In fact it is #29 only better than #30 Safeco (Seattle). Conforto is the poster boy for poor Oracle Park hitter.
At home, Conforto hit only three home runs. On the road, he hit 17. To further illustrate, Conforto was on a 162-game pace to hit 38 home runs last season if his home field was not Oracle.
Additional metrics: At Oracle Park, Conforto posted an 83 wRC+. Well below league average. On the road, his wRC+ was 133, which is All-Star caliber.
Last year, Teo was an All Star, 19th in MVP vote, and won a SS. While Conforto had arguably a forgettable year.
Here are the 2 Statcast pages.
Michael Conforto
Teoscar Hernández
Conforto has more batting red than Teo. Teo has a higher ceiling, but a lower floor. Conforto is a better defender.
There were very few positive comments about Teo last year after his season in Seattle.
Teo’s 2023 year in Seattle – with 678 PA – .258/.305/.435/.744, 26 HR, 29 DBL, 108 OPS+. 31.1% K rate.
Conforto’s 2024 year in SFG – with 488 PA – .237/.309/.450/.759, 20 HR, 27 DBL, 116 OPS+, 24.2% K rate.
To add to the more complete picture, Teo’s BAbip was .342, while Conforto’s BAbip was a .277. That is a 65 points greater BAbip for Teo, that only produced 21 points better BA. Conforto hit into much tougher luck in 2024 than did Teoscar in 2023.
Conforto had reverse splits in 2024, but “normal” splits in his career. .838 OPS vs RHP in his career vs .705 OPS vs LHP.
I am more and more pessimistic about Teo re-signing with LAD. However, I remain hopeful. I do think the issue is more length of contract over $$$. As stated above, the most recent prediction I have seen is 3 years for $72MM. Perhaps fans are fine with 3-4 years for Teo, but I think LAD may balk at that length.
I will admit that Conforto has nowhere near the clubhouse presence that Hernández has. The clubhouse would miss Teo very much.
I am giving Conforto my full support this Winter as I did Teoscar Hernández last Winter. I am hopeful that LAD will have both.
I was in the sign Soto camp too first but now I am glad the Dodgers did not get him.
The contract numbers are insane in comparision to Shohei as Jeff rightfully pointed out.
Better for the Dodgers to use that money on guys like Teo, Tanner Scott, Sasaki etc.
We beat the Yankees with Soto , he alone will not make the difference for the Mets though they certainly will present a tough competitor for years to come with Cohens money in the background.
Padres, Mets, Braves , Phillies, all 4 of those teams will make it hard for the Dodgers not only in 25 but years to come. There will be fierce competiton in the NL to represent the senior circuit in the WS.
Go Dodgers!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Good piece. Salaries between the two signings were close too. I’d bet their numbers are fairly similar.
Arithmetic.
I like it.
Is it just me or are those bottom boxes fuzzy?
I agree the Mets will be more competitive for the immediate future. Better than the Dodgers? It’s possible.
The Padres have been quiet. I wonder what’s going on there.
Teo was a huge part of the Dodgers success this year. I hope he comes back. But if it’s only about the money, and when isn’t it, I think some team will outbid the Dodgers.
What is next? Is Outman our centerfielder? I guess I could live with that. But I think I’d rather trade him, Lux, and a none elite prospect to Chicago.
I am less confident Teo comes back as well. Especially after AF’s comments last night on MLB Network saying he’d love to have him, but if he signs elsewhere we’ll wish him good luck. Doesn’t sound very positive.
I never saw Soto as a good fit for the Dodgers. Great hitter, great on-base skills…still young… and that’s about it. The Mets paid a massive amount for a guy who would be best used as a DH. Lindor, I think, will continue to be more important to the Mets success than Soto.
I want Teo back and I think Conforto was a very smart move. Just like Teo leaving Seattle, Conforto leaving SF could result in a big uptick in his performance.
If the Dodgers can’t get Teo back and can’t snag Santander as Plan B, the OF seems a bit thin (by Dodger standards): Edman, Conforto, Pages, Outman, Taylor and Rushing would be in the mix.
Edman, Conforto and Taylor are locks because of their contracts and experience.
Pages, Outman and Rushing are more iffy–and each could figure into trades.
Pages has had the most recent success, but Outman hadgreater success in ’23 and is the better fielder. Rushing is a catcher/first baseman who is learning how to play LF.
If Outman gets his mojo back and Pages continues to progress, this group would be fine. But the Dodger brass, I suspect, would want more of a sure thing.
I’d be fine with Profar, actually.
Wouldn’t it tick off the Padres?
An excellent analysis with the Conforto vs Teoscar comparison. After reading the stats I’m all in on Conforto. AF quietly makes these unexpected moves while everyone else is looking elsewhere at bright object(s) i.e. – Soto and Teoscar.
It looks like Confoto’s production was greatly affected while playing in the Giants’ park. With Teoscar’s price going up after the Soto signing, I’m resigned to the fact that he has been priced out of the Dodgers’ comfort zone. I think it will be more the length of the contract more so than the value. Will Conforto match Teoscar’s production? I doubt it. But, it’s still a nice fallback move. Add to the production the one year and $17M it might turn out to be another winning signing by AF/BG.
But, Teoscar hasn’t signed so there’s still a chance he’s back with the Dodgers for the 2025-27 seasons.
Carry on.
Read an article last night looking at HOF players and those most likely to entered in future years. Starting around age 31, players such as Mantle, Griffey, Harper and Trout’s performance dropped a fair amount. If the trend holds (and Soto is not a clone of Henry Aaron) the Mets will be saddled with average to slightly above average performance for 10 years at 51 million per year.
Thus, Soto needs to justify the contract in baseball terms. That is more true everywhere but the Mets. The Mets and their owner want to take NY City back from the Yankees. What’s the saying? “Pride comes before the fall.”
-Proverbs 16:18
So what are the fall back plans if the Dodgers whiff on Teo???
Santander?
Profar?
Verdugo?
FA outfield market is pretty thin after Teo and Santander.
Would the Dodgers consider a trade for Bellinger? Cubs desperately want to dump his salary. I would consider it if the Cubs took Taylor. Then they could resign Kike.
I would rather they go after Seiya Suzuki.
When you really break it down, the Dodgers best option is to get a deal done with Teo.
The thing I liked most about Teo was that as the season progressed he tried to put the ball in play with risp instead of ignoring the situation and swinging away. I have never appreciated someone that hit 40 home runs but had less than 80 RBI. I think a 3 to 1 ratio of RBI to home run is equivalent to the .300 ba or the 850 ops.
I copied this and am pasting it here.
Because Sasaki was posted on Dec. 10, he could sign in either the 2024 international signing period or the 2025 international signing period.
If Sasaki signs for the 2024 period, he would have to reach an agreement by Dec. 15, which is when that current signing period ends.
These reports that the Astros would consider trading Kyle Tucker seem a bit hard to believe.
But I hope AF, BG and their staff is looking into it.
Conforto is an Oregon St guy. Another plus.
The Rule 5 Draft will be today at 11:00 AM PT. There are three prominent publications that predict who COULD be drafted: Jonathan Mayo (MLB Pipeline), The Athletic, and Baseball America. LAD had 6 different players identified by at least one of those publications.
Ryan Ward (OF/1B) – MLB Pipeline, Athletic, BA
Jack Little (RHRP) – MLB Pipeline, BA
Damon Keith (OF) – Athletic, BA
Carlos Duran (RHP) – MLB Pipeline
Garrett McDaniels (LHP) – MLB Pipeline
Logan Boyer (RHP) – MLB Pipeline
While not listed by any of the publications, 2 LAD players were also identified as possibilities: RHP Jerming Rosario and Utility Austin Gauthier.
Besides Ryan Ward, there were 5 players that were named as possible draft picks by all three publications:
Christian Franklin – OF – Cubs
Kala’I Rosario – OF – Twins
Sammy Siani – OF – Pirates
Shane Smith – RHP – Brewers
Ryan Webb – LHP – Guardians
The draft has not started but Jonathan Mayo has reported that CWS (selecting 1st), will select RHP Shane Smith.
IMO, LH hitting Ryan Ward is going to get drafted. He could be an ideal platoon OF, and LH bat off the bench. He is a power bat that some team will want to take a chance on.
I have always thought that Carlos Duran’s “stuff” is too good to ignore. It has taken him longer to return from TJ surgery. He is still just 23. I think some team can select him and stick him in the bullpen.
Jack Little was a favorite of mine when he was drafted out of Stanford (2019), in a year that many reliever possibilities were drafted. The Dodgers needed relievers, and they decided to pack a bunch in 2019. Logan Boyer was also in that draft. I am hoping that Little is not drafted. I would love to see him come up as a LAD.
I would never have guessed that Garrett McDaniels would be drafted. But relievers have the best chance of sticking.
Damon Keith has been a favorite of many LAD fans because of his great start. If he is drafted, I do not see him sticking with a team for the full year.
I do not expect LAD to select anyone in the MLB phase.
Good article Jeff.
I agree that Soto contract is not worth the cost and risk long term. The Ohtani contract, which seemed crazy to me when announced, is a much better investment. Especially when the marketing revenues are considered.
The Conforto signing seems like an overpay unless there are significant deferrals. But it is minimal risk given the Dodger financial situation and a decent fallback option to Soto and Teo. Although he is a professional hitter, he is often injured and soon to be 32. He did have a couple of good months to end 2024, but over his last 3 seasons he is a 235 hitter with 730 OPS. Solid player but more of a platoon corner outfielder like Pages but older and less athletic.
Did a little calculating. Here is what each playoff team paid for 1 WAR in 2024.
$5,026,632.88 Dodgers
$6,821,970.40 Mets
$6,523,054.77 Yankees
$5,558,826.87 Phillies
$5,209,790.35 Astros
$2,041,477.32 Orioles
$4,498,757.76 Braves
$3,921,006.15 Padres
$2,838,848.79 Royals
$2,756,070.16 Brewers
$2,732,495.61 Tigers
$2,424,250.10 Guardians
Orioles, Royals, Brewers, Tigers, and Guardians got a lot of bang for their buck.
Apparently the Padres are contemplating trading RHSP Dylan Cease this offseason. They just slid below the CBT threshold last year (by $3.5MM), but they are already exceeding the threshold this year. They also want to recoup some prospect capital as they did with Soto last year, and Cease gives them the best chance. SD knows they will not be able to afford him when he becomes a FA after 2025. Cease is estimated to make $14MM in his final year of arbitration.
This is why the Padres are putting pedal to the metal to sign Rōki Sasaki. The Padres are not expected to sign any top international prospect leaving all their cash for Sasaki. Thay have $1.1MM more than LAD. Contrary to what any spin pops up about Sasaki if he signs with SDP (I think he does), the Dodgers squandered $2.6MM from last years bonus pool, and are not projected to sign any international player above perhaps the #50 international prospect. Luckily LAD was able to sign SS Emil Morales in 2024, and they are still hoping that Rafy Peguero develops.
Boston Red Sox finalizing deal to acquire Garret Crochet
In a surprise 1st Rule 5 pick from LAD is LHP Garrett McDaniels by LAA.
While the Dodgers don’t match up well with Houston for Tucker, remember that AF is a master at multi-team trades.