A Cursory Start on the 2025 Roster Construction

Now that Clayton Kershaw has opted out of his player option, and become a free agent, currently the Dodgers have 38 on the 40 man roster.  What is going to make the 40 man construction more difficult this year is the number of injured players that will have to be retained on the 40 man roster until pitchers and catchers report for Spring Training.

Injured players need to be added back to the 40 man by today. The four injured pitchers the Dodgers need to retain on the 40 man until pitchers and catchers report date are:

• River Ryan
• Emmet Sheehan
• Gavin Stone
• Kyle Hurt

We just do not know yet about Nick Frasso.

The 40 man is officially set on November 14, including protected MiLB players from Rule 5 draft.

As I am writing this, the 40 man is currently this:

• 24 pitchers
• 1 DH
• 4 Catchers
• 5 Infielders
• 4 outfielders

There are two potential DFA (non-tender) candidates:  RHRP Zach Logue, and RHRP Connor Brogdon.  MLBTR included Dustin May and Tony Gonsolin as potential non-tender, which is ridiculous IMO.  At the very least, both could be high leverage relievers at a more than reasonable cost.  Estimated arbitration $$$ for both: Gonsolin ($5.4MM) and May ($2.135MM).  The Dodgers are not going to DFA either pitcher.

The Dodgers have multiple free agents many hope they re-sign.  Teoscar Hernández, Blake Treinen, Jack Flaherty, Walker Buehler, and Kiké Hernández.  Joe Kelly has indicated he would like to return to LAD, but methinks that ship has sailed.  If the Dodgers do non-tender Logue and Brogdon, the Dodgers will have 4 open spots for free agents.  I fully expect trades from the 40 man.

For those looking for Michael Grove and Chris Taylor to be DFA’d, I think you will be disappointed.  I have stopped believing in absolutes, so I will not say that it won’t happen; just extremely unlikely.

CT3 has $17MM guaranteed.  If the Dodgers pay $10MM of that guarantee, they could move him for a lottery ticket.  But it is far more likely (IMO) that the Dodgers love his versatility and will retain him.  Chris Taylor since July:

• From July 2 thru end of season – 120 PA, .243/.342/.350/.691
• From August 24 thru end of season – 57 PA, .314/.368/.412/.780
• From September 1 thru end of season – 46 PA, .333/.370/.452/.822

His numbers began to rise once he returned from an injury (August 24) and went back to his old swing.  CT3 can play 6 positions well (2B, 3B, SS, LF, CF, RF).  He is fast enough to be a late inning PR and can steal a base.  Yes, he strikes out a lot, but so do a lot of Dodgers, plus players many out there that fans clamor for.  Not bad for a speedy defensive minded utility bench player.

Compare that to a player many were disappointed when he was DFA’d, Jason Heyward, who hit .208/.289/.393/.682 as a Dodger, and not a whole lot better as an Astro.  Yes, he is LH.

The team does not need 13 position player all-stars on their roster.  Is CT3 expensive? Yes.  Does that matter to the Dodgers?  No.  So in my mock roster he stays.

Now for 2025:

Rule 5 – I think there is a very good chance that the Dodgers will not protect anyone. There are 37 (by my count) rule 5 eligible this year.  15 position players, 4 starting pitchers, and 18 relief pitchers.  Under consideration (IMO):

• Ryan Ward – LHH OF (27 next year) – AAA
• Jack Dreyer – LHRP (26 next year) – AAA
• Austin Gauthier – RHH utility (26 next year) – AAA
• Carlos Duran – RHP (23 next year) – AA
• Ryan Sublette – RHRP (26 next year) – AAA

None of those players raise a flag that says they need to be protected.  And with limited space, I can see the Dodgers pass.  If I were to choose one, it would be Jack Dreyer, although I do love the potential of Carlos Duran.

What do I see as the current roster makeup:

• 1B – Freddie Freeman
• 2B – Mookie Betts
• SS – Tommy Edman
• 3B – Max Muncy
• LF –
• CF – James Outman
• RF – Andy Pages
• C – Will Smith
• DH – Shohei Ohtani
• Bench: Austin Barnes, Gavin Lux, Chris Taylor, Miguel Rojas.

I have Mookie at 2B.  He is comfortable there.  He wants to be there.  It saves his legs. Since Gavin Lux can only play 2B, he is relegated to the bench in my mock roster.  I do think he gets traded to a team that needs a middle infielder.

The three biggest questions for the position players are LF, CF and SS.

I suspect the Dodgers could acquire a CF or SS with Tommy Edman assuming the other. There are a lot of good defensive poor offensive CF.  The Dodgers have one of their own in James Outman.

Harrison Bader is the only notable free agent CF.  I doubt that he piques the LAD interest.  There are 4 other free agent OF in total:  Juan Soto, Teoscar Hernández, Anthony Santander, and Michael Conforto.  Potential CF trade candidates have been limited to Chas McCormick, Leody Taveras, Cedric Mullins, and Luis Robert Jr. I assume they would not mind getting Robert Jr. without breaking the prospect capital bank.  Taveras just turned 26, and has 3 more years of control. He is a mediocre offensive threat, and not a good defensive player…pass. Cedric Mullins is a possibility.

There are three other OF that have been reported as potentially available.

• Wilyer Abreu – Boston
• Lane Thomas – Cleveland
• Brent Rooker – Oakland

I do not see the A’s trading Rooker until the deadline at the earliest.  Abreu is a RF and might be an upgrade over Pages, but not enough of one.  Thomas is a potential, but I would prefer the Dodgers re-sign Teoscar. How much of a hometown discount will he accept to remain with LAD.  Teo is closer to becoming a DH than he is to an accomplished defensive OF.  Will he accept 3 years of $23MM – $24MM AAV ($69MM – $72 MM).  Some are projecting 3 years at $60MM.  I think the Dodgers would do that in a heartbeat.  Would Teoscar?

I have already stated that I am not on the Juan Soto train.  The current starting point for Soto has risen to $700MM by many in the know.  I recognize that does not mean he will sign for that.  He is a Scott Boras client, and AF has never signed a Boras client for more than one year.  Juan Soto will not be his first.

Maybe I am a glutton for punishment, or that I just want a happy wife, but I think the lowest risk and highest reward for CF is James Outman. Outman would also be an ideal platoon OF with Andy Pages.

My ideal trade for a CF is Boston’s Jarren Duran (4 years control).  Boston is not going to trade him, but if I were AF/BG I would give it my best shot.

My ideal trade for a corner OF would be Kyle Tucker, even though he would be an expensive rental.  But if Houston is not going to extend Bregman, they would use the $$ to extend Tucker.  Can Houston afford both?  Houston has arguably the worst farm system, so maybe they choose to improve the farm system by trading Tucker.  The Dodgers would have to start with Dalton Rushing and some pitching.

For SS, the Dodgers have two candidates on their current roster: Miguel Rojas and Tommy Edman.  I think the Dodgers prefer Miggy Ro to be a true utility infielder.  Edman is also a logical CF candidate.  Thus, LAD can certainly choose to go outside the organization.

The Dodgers have Alex Freeland in AAA as the highest rated MiLB LAD SS.  Do the Dodgers believe he is a legit SS at the MLB level?  If they do believe that, all they will need is a one year bridge.

The most discussed possible SS target is Milwaukee’s Willy Adames.  Some believe he is a favorite of AF.  As the Tampa Bay GM, he did consummate a July 31, 2014, 3-team trade that brought Adames from Detroit with Drew Smyly with David Price headed to Detroit.  There were other players involved, but those were the primaries. 2 ½ months later, AF was signed by the Dodgers to be POBO.  Adames was 18 at the time of the trade, and was not considered a top prospect until the following year.  I doubt that there is any deep-seated loyalty towards Adames from AF.

Toronto is probably not going to trade Bo Bichette until the deadline at the earliest.  Toronto believes that with the addition of players and the hope that Bichette returns to form they can contend in 2025.

I do not believe the Dodgers are interested in Ha-Seong Kim.

I do not believe he is available, but if I was AF/BG I would contact Washington and ask for CJ Abrams.

The chatter is getting louder that San Francisco will be overly aggressive on Adames.

Now the pitchers:

SP on the 40 man and available at ST:

• Tyler Glasnow
• Yoshinobu Yamamoto
• Shohei Ohtani
• Bobby Miller
• Landon Knack
• Ben Casparius
• Justin Wrobleski
• Tony Gonsolin
• Dustin May

Clayton Kershaw has decided to pass on his $10MM player option.  I am not a mind reader and have no idea what that poses for the future of Kershaw and LAD.  Clayton is making a business decision, and so will the Dodgers.  Who blinks?  I doubt the Rangers are serious contenders for next year.  So he is looking to make the best deal for he and his family.  Nobody knows when he will be available after his planar plate surgery.

Nick Frasso will be probably not be ready by ST.  I would like to be wrong, but even if I am, who was the last SP who had major labrum surgery and made it all the way back after one year.  Hyun-jin Ryu and Julio Urías took more than a year to fully recover.  Clayton Kershaw was out ½ a year after a lesser surgery, and he certainly was not close to the Kershaw of old.  Thus, I do not believe Nick Frasso will be on the LAD 26 man at the start of 2025.

Tyler Glasnow does say that he is fully healthy and will be changing his offseason training to keep the elbow strong. I am a huge Glasnow advocate, but I am not convinced that he can stay healthy.  One of his big assets is his 99^th percentile extension.  He seems to think he is going to need to back off of that level of extension to protect his elbow.  We will have to wait and see how he makes it through.  Maybe he is a third necessity for the six-man rotation.

Yoshinobu Yamamoto had a rotator cuff injury.  Is that a potential re-injury situation?

Shohei Ohtani – Two TJ surgeries.  Who has fully recovered from 2 TJ surgeries in his first year back?

Bobby Miller – I hope the Dodgers prescribe a sports psychologist for Miller.  It is not his pitching ability, but his head.

Knack, Casparius, Wrobleski, Gonsolin, and May have all been starters, but many are making noise that each of them is probably better suited for the bullpen.

Corbin Burnes is on many LAD fans wish list.  Unfortunately he is a Scott Boras client, and therefore seriously unlikely to sign with LAD.  I also do not see him accepting into a 6-man rotation.

Blake Snell is also a Scott Boras client, but if he were willing to sign for three years (doubtful), he might be a potential LAD target.  But he also is not likely keen on a 6-man rotation.

Other than Burnes and Snell, Max Fried, Sean Manaea, Nick Martinez, Nick Pivetta, and Luis Severino all come with QO.  The Dodgers first round pick will drop 10 spots in next year’s draft, and the likelihood of the Dodgers then giving away their 2^nd and 5^th draft selection to sign a player with a QO are remote.  Burnes and Snell might be worth the cost, but neither are considered realistic LAD targets.

So what starting pitchers might the Dodgers look into?

• Walker Buehler
• Jack Flaherty
• Nathan Eovaldi
• Jose Quintana

All pitchers with Scott Boras for their agent:

• Corbin Burnes
• Blake Snell
• Sean Manaea
• Frankie Montas
• Max Scherzer
• Yusei Kikuchi

There are trade candidates that the Dodgers could consider.

What I do not know is what possible reclamation projects might the Dodgers consider.  One that I can think of is Shane Bieber, but probably not until the pitchers and catchers report and he can be added to the 60 man IL.

So as of right now, I believe the Dodgers will try to stay primarily in house for the position players.  I believe they will re-sign Teo Hernández on a LAD friendly deal.  They will probably look into improving the bench.  Will that include Kiké Hernández?  Maybe. He is a clutch playoff player.  But it is not as clear cut as many want it to be.

The position players:

• 1B – Freddie
• 2B – Mookie
• SS – Edman
• 3B – Muncy
• LF – Teoscar
• CF – Outman
• RF – Pages
• C – Smith
• DH – Ohtani
• Bench – Barnes, Miggy Ro, CT3, Lux

If the Dodgers trade Lux for top prospects, that would clear a path for Kiké.

Pitchers are wide open and really depend on medical reports.  But I would not be surprised to see the Dodgers re-sign Buehler and Flaherty and perhpas sign Quintana.  Maybe trade for a left handed SP.  Maybe Garrett Crochet?  Tarik Skubal is now on the untouchable list. Unfortunately a few of the LHSP that the Dodgers might have been interested in are Scott Boros clients with QO; a dealy combo for AF.

This is an initial review, and I plan on reviewing multiple times.  Once we see some FA sign, the picture will become more clear and perhaps better guesses.