Do Statistics Always Tell the Story

Many have been commenting about how LAD is playing and commenting as to what might be wrong with the current team over THE FIRST 20 GAMES OF THE SEASON.  The Dodgers are 14-6 over those 20 games for a .700 W-L percentage.  Third best record in MLB, but also 3^rd best record in NL West.  As it currently stands, the NL West has the four teams with the best records in MLB.

During the AF era, the current start has matched 2021 with the best start of any LAD team.

• 2024 – 12-8, 1^st place by 1.0 game, Final record 98-64
• 2023 – 10-10, 3^rd place , 1.0 GB, Final record 100-62
• 2022 – 13-7, 2^nd place, 0.5 GB, Final record 111-51
• 2021 – 14-6, 1^st place by 1.0 game, Final record 106-56
• 2020 – 13-7, 1^st place tied, Final record 43-17
• 2019 – 12-8, 1^st place by 0.5 game, Final record 106-56
• 2018 – 10-10, 3^rd place, 4.5 GB, Final record 92-71
• 2017 – 9-11, 3^rd place, 5.0 GB, Final record 104-58
• 2016 – 12-8, 1^st place by 1.5 game, Final record 91-71
• 2015 – 12-8, 1^st place by 1.0 game, Final record 92-70

There is no way anyone can expect Shohei to match his 2024 numbers, so there necessarily has to be a regression.  Shohei’s 2025 numbers are diminished with his first 20 games in 2024.

• 2024 – .341/.385/.634/1.019, 4 HR, 3 SB
• 2025 – .288/.380/.550/.930, 6 HR, 5 SB

Mookie’s 2025 hitting has regressed from his first 20 games in 2024:

• 2024 – .388/.490/.700/1.190. 6 HR, 3 SB
• 2025 – .266/.373/.484/.858, 4 HR, 2 SB

We know Max Muncy has regressed thus far in 2025 from 2024.

Max’s career slash line – .227/.351/.471/.822 vs 2025 slash line .193/.309/.263/.572.  There are some encouraging signs that Max has displayed recently.  While he still does not have a single HR, he is showing much more patience at the plate.  He has 6 BB vs 3 K in his last 4 games.  His slash line over those 4 games (16 PA) – .250/.563/.250/.813.  He has reached 1B on 9 of his 16 PA. He came very close to slugging his first HR on Wednesday.  Yes it is a small sample size, but then again so is his 2025 season in total.  We need to let it play out before we start calling for Alex Freeland to take his place now.

Of course, Will Smith has improved upon his 2024 start.  Then again, his 2024 start was also quite good.  I am comparing Smith’s first 16 games stats, since that is all he has played in LAD’s first 20 games.

• 2024 – .371/.412/.484/.896 – 1 HR, 5 BB, 10 K
• 2025 – .367/.475/.551/1.026 – 2 HR, 10 BB, 14 K

So, Smith has made up for some of the regression for Shohei, Mookie, and Max.

Outman (2024) vs Pages (2025) is really a wash offensively, but not close defensively.

• Outman – .190/.288/.328/.615 – 2 HR, 7 BB, 20 K
• Pages – .175/.299/.298/.597 – 2 HR, 7 BB, 20 K

Difference here is that Outman really started to go south from here, while Pages is showing some signs of life.  Defensively?  Still no contest.

Teoscar Hernández has slightly regressed from 2024.

• 2024 – .286/.337/.332/.870 – 5 HR, 6 BB, 27 K
• 2025 – .265/.292/.529/.821 – 5 HR, 3 BB, 15 K

One major improvement is Tommy Edman (2025) vs Gavin Lux (2024):

• 2025 Edman – .263/.305/.553/.858 – 6 HR, 3 BB, 12 K
• 2024 Lux – .167/.236/.182/.418 – 0 HR, 6 BB, 16 K

Lest we forget, Freddie has only played in the first 9 games of the season, and he is playing on a bad wheel.  Freddie has proven that he can play at an elite level with a broken-down body.  Just ask NYY.

With all of the offensive regression indicated above, the Dodgers are still 14-6.  While none of the 4 NL West teams will continue at their current pace, IMO the Dodgers are more likely to stay closer to their fast start compared to either San Diego or San Francisco.

I believe that the Dodgers’ offensive numbers will get better as the season builds.  I still believe they are a 100+ win team, and I do not believe any other team in the NL West is.  Then again I never saw SF and their 107 wins in 2021.

Below I have included offensive and pitching comps of 2025 to date and 2024.  After 20 games, do they mean anything, really?  Make of them what you will.  For me, it does seem to indicate how dependent they are on the HR thus far. I will periodically update these throughout the year.

I have added below runs per game and hits per game ranking for 2025 and 2024.

https://www.teamrankings.com/mlb/stat/runs-per-game

https://www.teamrankings.com/mlb/stat/hits-per-game

MiLB GAME SUMMARIES

Tacoma Rainiers (Seattle) 5 – OKC Comets 4

Tacoma scored a run in the 9^th to break a 4-4 tie for the win.

Alec Gamboa was summoned back to being a starter for this one.  He was excellent for 3.2 IP.  He issued one walk until he got the first two outs in the 4^th.  He then issued 2 walks and a 2-run scoring double, the only hit Gamboa allowed.

That erased a 1-0 OKC lead.  Esteury Ruiz doubled in the 3^rd, stole 2^nd, and scored on the catcher’s throwing error.

With Sam Carlson on the bump, Tacoma increased the lead to 3-1 in the 5^th.  Three consecutive singles scored a run.

OKC tied the game in the 6^th.  Dalton Rushing led off with a single.  Michael Chavis followed with a run-scoring double.  James Outman singled home Chavis to tie the game at 3-3.

Tacoma scored a run in the top of the 8^th.  Kody Hoese tied the game in the bottom of the 8^th with his 1^st HR of the season.

Logan Boyer entered to pitch the 9^th.  A one out single, walk, and run scoring single gave the Rainiers a 5-4 lead and eventual win.

Alex Freeland was the only Comet with a multi-hit game.

• Alex Freeland – 2-5, double (9)
• Doubles – Esteury Ruiz (3), Michael Chavis (3)

Box Score

Tulsa Drillers 5 – Wichita Wind Surge (Minnesota) 3

Jose Rodriguez acted as the opener in what turned out to be a bullpen game.  He completed 2.0 scoreless innings.

Wichita kept the Drillers off the board until the 4^th.  Griffin Lockwood-Powell stroked a 1 out single and scored on an Aaron Bracho 2-run HR (2).

Tulsa scored a pair in the 5^th.  With one out, Chris Newell reached 2^nd on a fielding error.  He moved to 3^rd on a WP and scored on Ezequiel Pagan’s single.  Pagan stole 2^nd and scored on Damon Kieth’s single.

Roque Gutierrez was outstanding for three innings (3^rd – 5^th).  In the 6^th, he allowed a BB, a batter reached on a fielding error, and Kyler Fedko hit a 3-run HR.  With 2 outs, 24 year old RHP, Kelvin Ramirez, entered to retire the side.

In the 7^th, Taylor Young singled and steals 2^nd.  He moved to 3^rd on the catcher’s throwing error.  Young scored on a fielder’s choice.

Ramirez pitched a scoreless 8^th and Lucas Wepf followed with a scoreless 9^th to register his 1^st save.

Aaron Bracho was the only Driller with a multi-hit game and one with a XBH.

• Aaron Bracho – 2-4, 1 run, 2 RBI, HR (2)

Jared Karros gets the nod for Friday’s game.

Box Score

Dayton Dragons (Reds) 9 – Great Lakes Loons 2

In what was anything but a pitching masterpiece.  In a game when the two teams scored a combined 11 runs on a combined 11 hits, the two teams also combined to issue 22 walks, and register 29 K, 15 by Great Lakes.  GL also issued 12 of the 22 walks.

Jackson Nicklaus notched his first Loons hit and first two RBI’s with an RBI double to right field in the second and a walk with the bases loaded in the seventh. Great Lakes offensively would go 1-for-13 with RISP and 0-for-5 with the bases loaded.

Patrick Copen started for the Loons and struck out seven. The right-hander has struck out 21 over 10.1 innings. Two defensive errors on the pitcher cost him his three runs. Two of his three walks and both errors occurred in the third inning.

Jesus Luna issued 4 BB in the 5^th for a run.

Following Copen, nine walks were spread across five relievers. Joseilyn Gonzalez struck out four over his 2.1 innings.

Reynaldo Yean gave up 5 runs in the 9^th (.1 inning) to break the game open.

Two RBI doubles, an RBI single, two walks, and hit batsmen gained five runs.

Zyhir Hope walked twice, extending his on-base streak to 12 games.

• Logan Wagner – 2-4, 1 BB, 1 run
• Jackson Nicklaus – 1-4, 1 BB, 2 RBI, double (1)

Box Score

San Jose Giants (SF) 13 – Rancho Cucamonga Quakes 6

Rancho lost at home for the first time on Thursday.

The Quakes got on the board in the first inning.  Eduardo Quintero walked, stole 2^nd, and scored on a Mike Sirota triple (1).  Sirota scored on a Jose Meza single for a 2-0 lead.  Then everything fell apart.

The Giants scored 8 unanswered runs.  Aidan Foeller allowed 6 runs (5 earned) in 4.1 IP.  He allowed 7 hits and 2 BB to go with 7 Ks.

Giants’ first baseman Jakob Christian hit a tie-breaking three-run homer off Aidan Foeller  in the fifth, and finished the game with a career high six RBIs, helping the Giants to their first road win of the year and handing Rancho their first home loss in six games.

Trailing 8-2 in the seventh, the Quakes tallied four runs and got right back in the game.  Gio Cueto drew a BB, Raynerd Ortega singled, and Kellon Lindsey walked to load the bases. Mike Sirota doubled home Cueto and Ortega.  Jose Meza singled to plate both Lindsey and Sirota, as the Quakes made it an 8-6 game. Rancho left the bases-loaded though and then saw San Jose post five runs in the eighth to put it away against the Rancho bullpen.

On Friday, Rancho will throw Sean Paul Linan in the 4^th game of the series.

• Mike Sirota – 2-5, 2 runs, 3 RBI, double (5), triple (1)
• Jose Meza – 2-5, 3 RBI
• Elijah Hainline – 1-3, 1 BB, double (4)

Box Score