While I would like to disagree with Scott on Dodgers focusing on hitting edges and looking for chase, sadly I cannot. I have made similar comments when Julio Urías was nibbling and had problems getting through the first inning. All of a sudden he began to challenge the hitters and he found more success.
You may not like it, but MLB is fully behind the Statcast phenomenon. It is no longer important that a player just gets a hit. Batting average is important, but more important than expected batting average? Expected slugging? What is the exit velo? Was it barreled? What was the bat speed? How many pitches does the player chase? These are the metrics the decision makers seem to focus on.
Pitching is no different. Scott and others may complain about LAD pitchers chasing the chase. But that is what is expected of them. However, you have to look at chase rate in conjunction with whiff rate. A whiff is a pitch that is a swing and miss regardless as to where the pitch is. Contrarily a chase is a pitch outside the zone that induces swing and miss. If the pitcher does not have a good chase pitch, he better have a good whiff pitch. Otherwise, that pitcher has to rely on location and soft contact. Preferably high ground ball percentages.
Then again, maybe the current LAD starters other than Yamamoto are not good enough to challenge, and have to rely nibbling.
- Yoshinobu Yamamoto – 75th percentile chase, 85th percentile whiff, fastball run value 93
- Tony Gonsolin – 39th percentile chase, 87th percentile whiff, fastball run value 26
- Dustin May – 25th percentile chase, 31st percentile whiff, fastball run value 54
- Landon Knack – 33rd percentile chase, 31st percentile whiff, fastball run value 28
Gonsolin does not get a lot of chase. His fastball run value is not very good. While his “stuff” is not fooling the batter inducing the chase, he is getting whiff because his split finger and slider are swing and miss in the zone, or they are landing for called strikes.
OTOH, Dustin May is pitching to contact. He is in the 85th percentile for ground balls so he needs a good defensive infield.
Yamamoto is the only SP with a good fastball value. The other three do not. Thus, they have to rely on landing their breaking ball and offspeed pitches for strikes, but on the edges. May, Knack, and Clayton Kershaw do not have the swing and miss stuff to get out of trouble. If they have to rely on the fastball to get the strike, it gets hit.
Let’s be realistic. Blake Snell and Tyler Glasnow are the two pitchers the Dodgers need to join Yamamoto and Gonsolin (Ohtani?) for the playoff rotation. Both pitchers are full of red on their Statcast page for 2024.
Snell was in 98th percentile for whiff, 81st percentile for chase, and had a fastball value of 85. That is a dominating pitcher. He walked a lot, but he was rarely in danger because of his out pitches.
Glasnow was in 85th percentile for whiff, 33rd chase, and still 95th in K%. While his fastball run value was in the 88th percentile, his breaking ball value was in the 99th percentile. His curveball is unhittable. He does not need the chase, because his pitches are good enough in the zone. When hit, he was in the 79th percentile for ground balls.
If the Dodgers get Snell and Glass back by June, and they stay healthy (I know BIG IF), that will be a different rotation than the one they have now.
When you do not have that chase or whiff pitch, but are pitching to contact you better be able to hit spots, that means living on the edges. So are the Dodger SP (not named Yamamoto) chasing the chase, or are they just trying to stay out of the middle of the zone where their stuff is just not good enough.
Usually you want your high leverage guys to be swing and miss guys.
- Tanner Scott – 98th percentile chase, 64th percentile whiff (Before Tuesday game)
- Kirby Yates – 91st percentile chase, 99th percentile whiff
Other relievers:
- Ben Casparius – 85th percentile chase, 76th percentile whiff, fastball run value 94
- Jack Dreyer – 56th percentile chase, 72nd percentile whiff, fastball run value 79
- Alex Vesia – 79th percentile chase, 86th percentile whiff, fastball run value 66
- Anthony Banda – 39th percentile chase, 60th percentile whiff, fastball run value 54
- Luis Garcia – 45th percentile chase, 24th percentile whiff, fastball run value 28
Outside of Casparius, each of those pitchers have to rely on hitting spots to be most effective. Alex Vesia was getting outs last year on his fastball up in the zone. He is not getting that call or swing and miss this year. Plus his fastball has lost > 1 MPH since last year, and > 2 MPH since 2023.
The Dodgers need Evan Phillips, Michael Kopech, and Brusdar Graterol for their bullpen. Even Edgardo Henriquez could be preferable.
Just as a casual outsider looking in, the injuries have decimated the starting rotation and the bullpen (duh), but it would appear that the LAD pitching depth is not as good as advertised. There are not enough quality arms for a quality pitching staff with their injuries. So the ones they do have are going to need to get better…and fast.
The average starter in MLB tosses 5.25 innings. The Dodgers have three pitchers with at least 5 starts. Yamamoto has 9 starts and 51.0 IP (5.67 average), May has 44.2 IP with 8 starts (5.58 average), and Sasaki has 34.1 IP with 8 starts (4.29 average).
Landon Knack threw 105 pitches Monday night, so he is fully ramped.
Dustin May has started 8 games and has pitched at least 5.0 innings in all 8. Three of the 8 were at least 6.0 IP. He has a high of 97 pitches.
Tony Gonsolin has only started 4 games; 1 was 6.0, 2 were, 5.0, and his last one was 4.0, but the thumb blister could have been the problem there. He did throw 97 pitches so he should be fully ramped.
Yoshinobu Yamamoto (not counting Tuesday night) has 9 starts, and each of them have gone at least 5.0 IP. He does have 4 starts of 6.0 innings, and 1 start going 7.0 innings. He has thrown as many as 103 pitches, but his last 2 were 88 pitches. Because he was on 5 days rest?
I see two problems. One, Roki Sasaki was not ready for MLB. The Dodgers needed a 6 man rotation with two Japanese pitchers, and they did not have it, especially after Snell and Glasnow went down. Without 6 starters, that necessitated bullpen games.
So while I do not disagree with Scott that the current bevy of Dodger pitchers are looking for the chase too much, they sort of have to because they are just not good enough to shut down an offense when they have to throw the ball in the zone (again not counting Yamamoto in this group). So for me, it all comes back to injured pitchers. They did not count on two of their top 3 starters going down so early, Gonsolin not being ready at the start of the season, Sasaki not being ready for MLB right at the start, and Bobby Miller imploding. They have needed to rely on Landon Knack. Justin Wrobleski and Nick Frasso are not ready to be impact starting pitchers at the MLB level. What are they supposed to do?
They will need pitching at the deadline. But there will not be a lot of pitchers who will be available. They need SP that can go deeper (thank you Mr. Obvious). They do not have to be top of the rotation guys, but more innings eaters.
I like the idea of Erick Fedde. Fedde threw 177 innings last year and has 52.1 thus far in 2025. He is not an ace by any stretch, but he gets outs. He has a complete game shutout this year, and will eat innings. But St. Louis is going to have to play themselves out of the Division or Wild Card race. They are one of the hottest teams in MLB right now, and only 1.0 game behind Chicago in NL Central, and one game behind in Wild Card. Are they good enough to stay there?
One pitcher I have coveted for the back of the rotation for the last two years is Tampa Bay’s Zack Littell. He has 9 starts with 54.1 IP. His last three starts were 7.0 IP, 6.0 IP, and 7.1 IP. He is a pitch to contact pitcher with very low K’s, but most importantly, he does not walk anyone. 90th percentile in BB %.
Regardless, more than anyone, the Dodgers NEED Tyler Glasnow and Blake Snell. Hopefully Clayton Kershaw will figure things out and become a good back of the rotation pitcher. Did the Dodgers perhaps miss out on getting Ohtani ready sooner as a pitcher. We will never know.
Finally, I will not be surprised to see Jackson Ferris make his MLB debut later this summer.
MiLB GAME SUMMARIES
Sacramento River Cats (Giants) 11 – OKC Comets 2
The Sacramento River Cats jumped out to an 8-0 lead and went on to defeat the Oklahoma City Comets, 11-5, Tuesday night in the series opener. The River Cats scored five runs in the second inning, including a bases-clearing double hit by Grant McCray.
Sacramento added three more runs in the third inning, including a two-run home run by Logan Porter. The Comets chipped away at the Sacramento lead with a RBI single by Esteury Ruiz in the third inning and solo home run by Michael Chavis in the fourth inning.
After Sacramento added two runs in the fifth inning and another in the eighth inning for an 11-2 advantage, the Comets scored the final three runs of the game, including a RBI double by Ryan Ward in the eighth inning.
The Comets have lost back-to-back games and are now 2-4 in their last six games…Oklahoma City has lost four straight home series openers and fell to 1-4 in home series openers overall this season.
The River Cats’ 15 hits were the most by a Comets opponent this season.
Esteury Ruiz finished with the Comets’ lone multi-hit game, going 2-for-5 with a RBI and run scored. Ruiz has six hits, three RBI and three runs scored over his last four games.
Ryan Ward collected a RBI double and now has 226 RBI in his Oklahoma City career — four RBI away from tying OKC’s Bricktown-era career RBI record of 230 (Jason Botts, 2005-08)…He has reached base in 13 straight games to tie his season-best on-base streak.
Justin Dean picked up a hit and scored a run and has now hit safely in seven of his last eight starts, going 11-for-28. He has scored a run in five straight games — tied for the longest stretch of games with a run scored by a Comets player this season.
Michael Chavis hit his eighth home run of the season — tied for second-most among Comets players this season. It was also his second home run in his last four games.
Dodgers pitcher Michael Kopech continued his Major League Rehab Assignment and allowed two runs, three hits and a walk with one strikeout over two-thirds of an inning. He faced six batters, throwing 26 pitches (12 strikes). He was placed on the 15-day Injured List March 15 with a right shoulder impingement and transferred to the 60-day IL May 1. Tuesday was his fourth outing with OKC this season.
Kopech does not appear to be ready to face MLB hitters.
Springfield Cardinals 7 – Tulsa Drillers 4
The Tulsa Drillers fell victim to an offensive bombardment from the Springfield Cardinals Tuesday night, and a lot of the damage came from two players. Springfield’s Nathan Church and Leonardo Bernal combined for six hits, four runs scored and five runs batted in to lead the Cards to a 7-4 victory over the Drillers.
It was the opening game of a six-game series and the first meeting of the season between the two teams.
The Cardinals took early control of the game by scoring a run in each of the first four innings.
Nathan Church doubled on Jared Karros’ first pitch of the game and came in to score the first run on a sacrifice fly from Leonardo Bernal.
A solo home run from Jeremy Rivas in the second made it 2-0 in the second, before Church singled and scored on a double by Bernal.
Dakota Harris homered in the fourth inning to increase the lead to 4-0.
The Drillers got on the scoreboard in the bottom of the fourth courtesy of Jose Ramos. With one out, Yeiner Fernandez singled and Griffin Lockwood-Powell walked. Ramos brought them both home with a two-run double.
It remained 4-2 until the Cards added three more runs in the seventh, and it was again Bernal doing the damage. The Springfield catcher belted a three-run homer off reliever Christian Suarez.
The Drillers made things interesting in the bottom of the eighth. With the bases loaded and two outs, Chris Newell singled home two runs to cut the deficit to three runs and bring the potential game-tying run to the plate in John Rhodes. Rhodes made a bid for the tying homer, but his towering drive was caught on the warning track by Church in the left field corner.
Church, who is the number 2 outfield prospect in the St. Louis Cardinals minor league system, had his second straight three-hit game, finishing 3-5 with three runs scored. He upped his season average to .354.
Bernal, who is the number 2 catching prospect in the St. Louis organization, finished the night a perfect 3-3 with the homer and five runs batted in.
The Redbirds out-hit the Drillers 16-5 in the game.
No Tulsa batter had a 2-hit game, and Ramos’ 2-run double was the only XBH.
Great Lakes Loons vs West Michigan Whitecaps (Detroit) – Game Postponed due to rain. DH for Wednesday 05-21-2025.
Stockton Ports (A’s) 10 – Rancho Cucamonga Quakes 7
The Quakes’ 12-game road trip opened on a sour note, as the Stockton Ports scored four times in the seventh inning to take the lead for good, defeating Rancho Cucamonga on Tuesday night by a final score of 10-7.
A three-run single by Jared Sprague-Lott broke the game open and gave the Ports their fifth win in seven home games over the Quakes.
Trailing 5-4 in the top of the seventh, Joendry Vargas tied the game with an RBI double, his second of three hits on the night, as Rancho evened it up at 5-5.
The Ports took advantage of control issues from Quakes’ reliever Connor Godwin, as they scored four times to take a 9-5 lead.
They got an additional run in the eighth, then withstood a two-run rally in the ninth, as Vargas struck again with an RBI single and Samuel Munoz drove home a run with a sac fly. That’s as close as the Quakes would get though, as Aidan Layton came out of the pen and struck out Roger Lasso to end the game.
The Quakes will send Hyun-Seok Jang to the mound on Wednesday, as he’ll be opposed by Stockton’s Ryan Magdic (1-1) at 7:05pm.
Joendry Vargas – 3-5, 2 RBI, double (1).
Texas ACL 2 – LAD ACL 1-0
Payton Martin pitched a brilliant 5.0 scoreless innings. He did allow 4 hits (all singles), but did not walk anyone. He did register 5 strikeouts.
The Dodgers jumped to a 1-0 lead in the 3rd. when Brendan Tunink tripled and scored on a Emil Morales single.
Tim Fischer relieved Martin in the 6th, and Texas scored 2 off Fischer and Accimias Morales.
Chase Harlan had 2 hits for the Dodgers.
Badly needed win. Yoshi was great. Deserved the win.
With all our pitching problems do we now have to worry about Scott too ?
Hope not.
Kopech was tagged at AAA again. He does not look ready for MLB hitting .
IMHO Wrobleski and Miller have to be called up. Miller to start and Wrobleski to give some length out of the pen.
A 6th men rotation just not sustainable at the moment with all the injuries.
Go Dodgers!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
If we are looking for some starting pitching help Ryan Weathers of the Marlins might be a good option. Still young, 25 years old, excellent stuff and an 1.80 ERA so far.
Marlins traded Arraez early last season , they are going nowhere again. So they might be ready to sell early this season too.
Go Dodgers!!!!!!!!!!!!!!1
Good win
Great information Jeff. It sums up what we all can see is true, the Dodgers pitching is just not very good. The rotation is made up of 1 ace followed by a train of #4-5’s and the bullpen already looks overworked.
And what to do about it? Wait it out I suspect.
We can also anticipate another Flaherty like signing (I didn’t say Flaherty, I said Flaherty like) but probably not until the deadline. Those teams that have available pitching will want a competitive bidding process. There could be a scrap heap pick up, but isn’t that what they already have?
I think it’s safe to say critical coefficients to the Dodgers championship winning formula are currently on the injured list. Yes Jeff, big IF’s. In the meantime, find ways to win enough games to stay competitive. That’s what they did last night.
Not sure i see a starting pitcher acquisition, unless the starters didn’t come back healthy. Just no room.
Playoffs mean a reduced staff. Probably four starting pitchers. Right?
You have got to feel for a guy like Ryan Ward. The guy is hitting .318 with an OBP close to .400, slugging over .500 and his OPS is .935. And he hasn’t ever sniffed a call-up. He couldn’t be worse than Conforto out in left.
Jeff D. terrific analysis on how Statcast has influenced how organizations go about getting outs these days. The Art of getting guys out without throwing strikes. Maybe scouts now report not on a pitchers fastballs and the quality of their arsenal these days but on the quality of their Chase Pitches.
“Chasing the Chase” is a great phrase.
It’s sort of humorous to me how announcers denigrate contact pitchers who don’t display high velocity and big spin and hits that don’t have a 95 mph exit velocity. It’s like they are unworthy hits.
The Statcast numbers seem more important than outcomes.
I like Dusty Baker’s old school comment that he doesn’t care about exit velocity; he cares about exit hits.
Pitching Coaching 102 – throw strike one and nibble your ass off until you have to throw one in the zone.
Thanks again Jeff. Great stuff.
Austin Barnes officially released by the Dodgers. He is free to sign with any team as long as he has cleared waivers.
Ideas for subjects you might be interested in concerning the Dodgers are welcome.
I don’t have much to add on pitching. The Dodgers will either get healthy or won’t or something great will fall into their laps. Pittsburgh could roll the dice by trading Skenes and if the players they got back didn’t pan out, not be any worse than they are now.
Speed is fun and can lead to wins. The Diamondbacks are a good team and have several speedy guys that are exciting. While I am not a Kim believer yet, he would be fun if he could get on base enough. Edman, while also fast, is not as fast as AZ’s Thomas and Carol. But Edman and Kim running more would be fun.
Freeland would add a lot more speed over Muncy. That probably will be a 2026 thing though. While I like Edman at second, I think the defense would be better with him in CF than Kim there. So, an outfield of Edman, Pages, and Hernandez and an infield that included Freeland and Kim would balance the power and speed of the offense.
And that balanced offense could be more fun to watch. Better? I don’t know.
Jeff D, wrote above “Ward should have been the call before Conforto. Then again, nobody expected Conforto to be this bad.”
I’m really not surprised by his poor performance so far.
“I watched him in high school, and at Oregon State where he was a star. He was an All-American, College Player of the Year, on the USA National Team and the 10th overall pick by the Mets 11 years ago.
He never became the hitter I thought he would be. MLB isn’t college baseball. He is a career .247 hitter but after missing all of 2022 with an injury, he has hit only .228/.716.
Maybe the Dodgers thought they could turn his sinking career around but that hasn’t happened for the $17 million for this season.
It is entirely possible that we are all waiting for a breakout that isn’t going to happen. I did.
Tonight’s starting outfield is Teo, Edman, Pages.
Conforto being held out so that he’ll be available to deliver the walk off hit in the 9th.
Outstanding effort from May. Very encouraging.