Last year Scott Boras effectively stalled the FA process by holding back his “Boras Four”: Blake Snell, Jordan Montgomery, Cody Bellinger, and Matt Chapman, for the “best possible deal”. Those deals never materialized.
“When spring training opened last February, Boras had not yet found deals for his four prominent clients. Bellinger became the first member of “the Boras Four” to sign when he returned to the Chicago Cubs on Feb. 27 with a three-year, $80 million contract that featured opt-outs after the first and second seasons. The others all took similar pillow contracts, short-term deals designed as a springboard for a brighter future. Chapman signed a three-year, $54 million deal with the San Francisco Giants; Snell became his teammate on a two-year, $62 million contract; Montgomery received a two-year, $47.5 million deal from the Arizona Diamondbacks.”
Not very “Borasesque”. He lost Jordan Montgomery as a client as a result. Chapman eventually got his 9-figure deal with SFG as an extension. Bellinger was probably not worth what he signed for, so accepting his option was a no-brainer. But it was still only a 3-year deal and south of $100MM. Snell will (should) get his 9 figure deal this time, but he better not wait until spring training like he did last year.
Last year Boras had 12 free agent clients, and this year he has 18. But not just any 18. Using MLBTR’s top 50 free agents as my guide, Boras represents the top 4, 6 of top 10, 8 of top 20, and 11 of top 50. Boras has the ability to stall a lot of the free agent market. But does he risk a repeat of what happened last year with his “Boras Four”?
2024-2025 Scott Boras Free Agent Clients:
- Juan Soto (#1)
- Corbin Burnes (#2)
- Alex Bregman (#3)
- Blake Snell (#4)
- Pete Alonso (#7)
- Sean Manaea (#10)
- Yusei Kikuchi (#12)
- Tyler O’Neill (#19)
- Frankie Montas (#27)
- Max Scherzer (#33)
- Ha-Seong Kim (#43)
- Michael Conforto
- Joey Gallo
- Josh Bell
- JD Martinez
- Cody Bellinger – Exercised player option
- Rhys Hoskins – Exercised player option
- Gerrit Cole – NYY exercised team option
I know Boras can walk and chew gum at the same time, and we are still about 4 weeks out until the Winter Meetings, so there is no real urgency. However, this week he is hosting meetings with 4 teams who are in on the Juan Soto auction. Thus far, NYY, NYM, Boston, and Toronto are meeting with Boras and Soto this week in Southern California (probably near his Newport Beach offices). How much time can he devote to his other clients this week?
At the GM Meetings, Senior National Writer, Mark Feinsand, kept hearing that the deal will likely be in the 13 to 14-year, $625 million range, without any deferrals. The AAV of Shohei Ohtani’s present-day value of his contract is $46.08MM. That will be Boras’ target number. Thus 13 years – $625MM appears to be his floor.
Not all of Boras’ clients wait until spring training. In fact, there is evidence that the earlier a Boras client signs, the better deal he gets for his clients.
- Marcus Semien – November 28 – 7 years $175MM ($25MM AAV)
- Corey Seager – November 29 – 10 years $325MM ($32.5MM AAV)
- Gerrit Cole – December 11 – 9 years $324MM ($36MM AAV)
- Carlos Rodón – December 15 – 6 years $162MM ($27MM AAV)
- Aaron Judge – December 20 – 9 years $360MM ($40MM AAV)
- JD Martinez – February 18 (Boston) – 5 years $110MM ($22MM AAV)
- Bryce Harper – February 28 – 13 years $330MM ($25.38MM AAV)
- Nick Castellanos – March 19 – 5 years $100MM ($20MM AAV)
The first five are at or more than likely exceed the expected market values for each of the players and were all signed before New Year’s. While the bottom three were well below what Boras was seeking, and all signed after the start of spring training report dates. ST games had already started when Harper and Castellanos finally signed. Add in the Boras Four from last year, and that puts an exclamation point on late signings.
I look for Juan Soto to go around the Winter Meetings. According to many journalists, the Dodgers will kick the tires on Soto but will truly only get involved if the market recedes (unlikely with NYY and NYM).
The Dodgers are reportedly not likely to be a serious threat for Juan Soto https://t.co/XYo7USudAx pic.twitter.com/xcekUyMT93
— SNY (@SNYtv) November 12, 2024
or:
While the Dodgers — who spent over $1 billion last offseason and won the 2024 World Series — are interested in Soto, according to ESPN’s Jeff Passan, they aren’t going to chase him like they did Ohtani.
“The Dodgers won’t chase after Soto,” Passan wrote. “Ohtani’s presence at designated hitter would leave them with limited options should Soto’s defensive range force a move.”
There are several other similar reports.
I do think Boras will try to push Snell through earlier so there is no repeat of last year for him. But how willing will teams be to negotiate a 5-year deal for a 32-year-old pitcher, which is what Boras is pushing. AF drafted and signed Snell in 2011, so there is familiarity. While no major arm surgery, he has had arthroscopic elbow surgery to remove loose bodies, and multiple adductor strains. He is LHP with no qualifying offer. I do not think AF would go to 5 years (just my opinion), but I do think he could go 3 years with a good AAV, a strategy that Boras has pooh-poohed in the past. Maybe AF can get by with 3 years and a pair of vesting options.
Corbin Burnes would be my first choice of any of the Boras clients. He is a workhorse without an injury past. He has been incredible since he moved full time to a SP in 2021. He was a teammate of Tony Gonsolin at St. Mary’s (Moraga, CA). They were both drafted in 2016. Burnes was drafted in 4th round while Gonsolin was drafted in the 9th round. Burnes is from Bakersfield but grew up a HUGE LAA fan. IMO, Burnes is the ultimate Boras client. He is a mercenary and will go to the highest bidder. At 30 years old, I do not see AF approaching the 7 years that Boras is looking at and will probably get. It is not the $$$ but the years.
I do not think that AF/BG will be strong contenders for any of Boras’ other clients. Thus, this should be another year where AF does not sign a Boras client. JDM for one year has been it. Not to mention the bad blood between LAD and Boras after Boras’ comments on the Dodgers mishandling Cody Bellinger. They say that any animosity is gone, but is it really?
To throw another wrinkle into the free agent frenzy is the number of players given a qualifying offer – 1 year $21.05MM. Some are no-brainers, while some are very curious.
- Willy Adames
- Pete Alonso
- Alex Bregman
- Corbin Burnes
- Max Fried
- Teoscar Hernández
- Sean Manaea
- Nick Martinez
- Nick Pivetta
- Anthony Santander
- Luis Severino
- Juan Soto
- Christian Walker
Manaea’s last two contracts were both 2 years at $25MM and $28MM. He will be 33 next year and is looking for a 3-year deal. He is LHP so there will be interest, but with Boras as his agent and a QO attached, I can see this one going awhile. It is not something Boras will do, but maybe it would be best for Manaea to accept the QO, prove his mechanical adjustments will hold, and then try again next year.
Nick Pivetta, Luis Severino, and Nick Martinez certainly have to be candidates to accept the QO. Pivetta has never had a season where he had a sub 4.0 ERA. He will be 32 years old for 2025.
While Nick Martinez has been a good pitcher since he returned from Japan, he is 34 and has been primarily a reliever. In his last three years since his return, Martinez has pitched in 152 games but only started 35. Thus, the Reds are giving a $21.05MM offer to primarily a reliever. I do not know a lot of teams who would be willing to give up draft picks for a reliever.
Luis Severino, a pitcher for the New York Yankees, has had several injuries throughout his career, including:
- 2019: A grade 2 lat strain that forced him to miss five months of the season
- 2020: Tommy John surgery that kept him out for the entire season
- 2021: A grade 2 groin strain in midseason that delayed his return until September
- 2022: A low grade lat strain that caused him to miss two months
- 2023: A high-grade left oblique strain that ended his season
Severino has also had other injuries, including rotator cuff inflammation in spring training in 2019, and elbow injuries in 2020 and 2021.
That is a lot of down time for a player to walk from a $21.05MM QO. He will be 31 next year. Last year was the first year Severino has exceeded 102 IP since 2018 (182.0 IP).
What players would the Dodgers be willing to give up their 2nd and 5th top picks in next year’s draft, plus losing $1MM in international bonus $$$, and considering that their #1 pick will drop 10 positions? I would hazard a guess at Willy Adames, Corbin Burnes, Max Fried, and Juan Soto. If the Dodger’s sign two free agents with a QO, they will also lose their 3rd and 6th top draft choices.
Let’s assume that the Dodgers do re-sign Teoscar. If the Dodgers sign Adames and Fried, they would have:
- 1st round draft pick 10 positions behind where their 1st round draft position.
- Lose 2nd, 3rd, 5th, and 6th draft picks.
That would leave LAD with a draft pick around #40, and their 4th round (around #130 pick) for the first 6 rounds, and losing another $1MM in the 2026 International bonus pool.
If the Dodgers do not re-sign Teo, the Dodgers would retain their 5th round pick, as Teoscar’s draft pick compensation would be after the 4th round, and that would become the Dodgers 5th highest pick that would be lost.
We are just starting the free agent frenzy. We are 5 days from players deciding to accept or decline their QO, 5 days from when Rule 5 draft eligible prospects need to be protected, and 24 days before the start of the Winter Meetings. But there is enough chatter that gives fans hope that their favorite free agent player might be coming to LAD.
While there probably is not a Dodger fan that would not want Juan Soto on the 2025 LAD roster, AF’s history with Scott Boras clients clearly indicates it is extremely unlikely that he will not be signing with the Dodgers. And again, it is not the Dodgers, it is Scott Boras.
I have seen a ton of pundits who think Soto is going to get north of 600 million. But is he worth that? I seriously do not think so. First, he is not all that great of a defender. Whereas Ohtani brings a whole country to the Dodgers as fans, and a stream of income that Soto cannot come close to matching. Ohtani puts butts in the seats, Soto has never been THE MAN on any team he has played on. He had Harper in DC, Machado and Tatis in SD and Judge in NY. His best bet is to go back to the Yankees. Dodgers would love his bat, but he really is not a complete ballplayer.
I’m a Dodger fan that does not want Soto on the roster. I have seen countless.comments from others who do not want him on the team.
If we re sign Teo do we lose a draft spot.or retain it?
Interesting and thought provoking thread Jeff.
With both New York teams in the bidding I don’t see Soto here unless he wants to be here and will take less. That ain’t happening.
What are it the Dodgers needs? A costly shortstop? They just won a championship without one. Starting pitching? Again, they just won with only a few reliable starters this year. One could argue they don’t need anything.
So I will say what I’ve already said, sign Adames and Teo, pick a reliable starter you like and wait til the deadline to add pieces.
A question came up reading your post Jeff. In today’s game, where velocity and spin rate are top priorities, exactly when do starting pitchers start their downward trend. I know there are outliers to this, guys like Scherzer and Verlander, but at what age does signing expensive pitching become risky? I read a fangraphs article that said velocity and BB/9 starts trending down long before age 30. I also saw a graph on Beyond the Box Score that said pitchers start losing it at age 26, but that was several years ago. What is it now?
I’ve always had a gut feeling that paying starting pitching past the age of 35 is crazy. From what I’ve seen, age 33 is old for a starter. That’s about where Kershaw went from a 170 inning pitcher to a 120 inning pitcher. He actually peaked at age 25. That was 12 years ago. What’s your take on the subject?
Count me as a Dodger fan that does not want him on the team. With the money he’ll cost and his irking personality. You’re the best blogger out there Jeff D by far. Keep up the good work
Good article
Soto and Boras can pound sand. 😀
I mentioned this once before and I don’t think anyone commented on it — that Ohtani is not a typical right handed person who hits from the left side. A righty typically backhands the ball when hitting from the left side. That puts more stress on the left shoulder. Ohtani powers through the ball with his left arm. Maybe that is perfect for protecting his pitching arm but if he has issues with his left shoulder, it could affect his pitching and his power as a lefty hitter.
If that is true would it change the Dodger’s desire to sign Soto?
Might Betts wind up playing third base for the Dodgers.
Forgive me if this was previously discussed but Journalist? Jim Bowden, who’s a hack, had previously all but sewed up Roki Sasaki being a Dodger, changed his tune in an Athletic article today.
He listed a few reasons that the chances are 50-50. The first, and biggest, reason for Sasaki NOT being a Dodger is a new twist; since the kid can’t make the big money, due to his age, and will for international pool money, capped at 7 million per team after Jan 15, he will need to make his fortune for awhile via endorsements. And with Yamamoto and Ohtani with the Dodgers, his marketing potential is lower than it would be elsewhere. San Diego was mentioned as a better endorsement opportunity. Interesting. And bullshit.
Next Bowden reported the since the Dodgers have 25 to 35 Japanese media folks covering the Dodgers “that level of attention “is not the best situation for a young developing pitcher”.
And lastly, he gives an advantage to San Diego because Yu Darvich “is like a godfather” to Sasaki and can “pass the baton” when Sasaki is ready”. This ignores Yamamoto and Ohtani, who are far closer in age to Sasaki, being mentors, helping the kid find his way early. Especially with language challenges.
I don’t know if we will sigh this kid or not. For the money, he’s a hugh catch.
But this guy came up with a whole new set of reasons, why not.
Rays will be playing at Steinbrenner Field in Tampa in 25. That is the Yankees spring training complex. It is going to cost around 55 million to fix the Trop.
Some really good stuff @FanGraphs that is pertinent to current and recent discussions.
About the MVP! Did WAR (or Ohtani) ruin MVP discussions:
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/did-war-ruin-the-mvp-conversation/
From Dan Szymborski Chat:
Roki: Why haven’t I already signed with the Dodgers? Let’s not waste everyone’s time
Dan Szymborski: I think there’s a whole process!
mmddyyyy: Do you think any pitchers are getting away with foreign substances?
Dan Szymborski: pitchers ALWAYS are
David Laurila and some General Managers on Hitting Coaches Vis-A-Vis Swing Coacheshttps://blogs.fangraphs.com/general-managers-on-hitting-coaches-vis-a-vis-swing-coaches/
Longenhagen takes a comprehensive look at current and future International players:
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2024-25-international-pro-prospect-update-scouting-roki-sasaki-and-others/
MLB Pipeline, one of the top amateur evaluation services, has put out a list of top prospects by age from 16-26. I was certainly not surprised to not see any Dodger prospects in the early ages. But they were well represented in Age 26, admittedly by MLB Pipeline as a little long in the tooth to still be classified as a prospect. In what could simply have been a two prospect group, the Dodgers’ River Ryan was the #1 26-year old prospect and Nick Frasso was #2.
Frasso should be ready for his MLB debut this year. But overcoming major shoulder surgeries have not been kind to quick comebacks. Just ask Hyun-jin Ryu and Julio Urías.
That got me to thinking again about comments that the Dodgers do not need significant additions to their SP because of all the pitchers coming back.
Tyler Glasnow – I have been a huge advocate for Glasnow, and I am not getting off his train now. But you need your best ostrich look not to acknowledge his creaky elbow. He has said that a mechanical change to reduce his extension a bit will help that. He says his elbow is fine and will be ready for ST after a revised throwing and work out program this winter.
Yoshinobu Yamamoto – Is his rotator cuff fully healed? He pitched very well in the playoffs, so it appears so. But why did he all of a sudden come down with a shoulder concern? Was it the game against NYY in June?
Shohei Ohtani – Has already reported that he will not be ready at the beginning of the year to pitch.
Bobby Miller – Miller has had his two MLB seasons shortened due to shoulder soreness (referred to fatigue) at the beginning of the year. But Miller’s biggest hurdle will be his head. His arm is not a problem once that shoulder strengthens, but his game demeanor seems to be. He has been favorably compared to Walker Buehler. It sure would be nice if he could emulate Buehler’s confidence that borders on cockiness (probably crosses the line). Without any knowledge of the situation, from the easy chair, IMO Miller needs a top notch sports psychologist.
But I do agree with Watford that Miller is too talented to give up on. He is a risk. He could either be a top of the rotation SP or a bust with no tradeable value.
Tony Gonsolin – Some do not believe he should continue as a SP, and is better suited for the bullpen. He succeeded in that role as a reliever at St. Mary’s. He undoubtedly closed out more than a couple of Corbin Burnes starts.
Dustin May – May has the personality of a late inning high leverage reliever. Cocksure with amazing whiffle ball movement on his pitches. If the Dodgers do not re-sign Blake Treinen, May could slide into that slot. Even if they re-sign him, they could make a fine duo.
Clayton Kershaw – When and at what level?
Ben Casparius, Justin Wrobleski, Landon Knack – At their best, they are back of the rotation types. Necessary of course, but the Dodgers try to sign a veteran to fill that role. Tyler Anderson, Andrew Heaney, Noah Syndergaard, James Paxton…
The best three young starters will not be ready, and only one will be pitching this year: Emmet Sheehan. River Ryan and Gavin Stone will not return until 2026.
How many feel comfortable that any of the above will have 27 starts (6-man rotation) and between 135-162 IP. Is the rotation healthy enough as it is right now, not to add to it?
IMO, the Dodgers should sign Rōki Sasaki and put forth a very good deal that includes Gavin Lux and prospects for LHSP Garrett Crochet. Sasaki should be able to make it through until Kershaw, Frasso, and Sheehan are ready. If he holds up, all the better. Crochet will be 26 this year. He is in his 2nd year arbitration and is projected to earn $2.9MM. Last year, his first year as a starter he had 32 starts, compiled 146.0 IP, which is more than any LAD pitcher, 3.58 ERA, 1.068, WHIP, a fantastic 2.69 FIP, 209 K, and 33 BB. That is 12.9 K/9 and 6.33 K/BB. Like Glasnow last year, he is a perfect candidate to trade for and extend.
That’s two potential top of the rotation arms for less $$$ than Walker Buehler. Add Adames and Teoscar with some high leverage relievers and call it a winter.
My best friend, Gary Freed passed away this morning at 77. He was born in Brooklyn and lived about 5 blocks from Ebbets Field. After they moved, he quit following them. RIP Gary, you will be missed my friend.
Baseball America has a GREAT, but brief, look at Z. Hope ($$$$)
https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/zyhir-hopes-early-returns-thrill-dodgers/
…“He has a great swing,” Dodgers farm director Will Rhymes said. “One of the things we loved about him out of the draft and in the trade was his swing. He hits the ball really hard. He’s probably in the 100th percentile….
I know this is a Dodgers blog, but I am a baseball fan as well. While I have no idea where they are headed, I like what LAA has done this early in the offseason.
Traded RHSP Griffin Canning for power bat Jorge Solar. Soler can help to protect Mike Trout and Taylor Ward.
They signed Kyle Hendricks as a RHSP for one year and $2.5MM.
They signed All Star catcher Travis d’Arnaud at 2 years $12MM.
They signed Swiss army knife utility infielder, Kevin Newman. Last year he started games at every infield position for Arizona. He struck out just 15.4% in 311 PA. He had a 2.2bWAR with Arizona in 2024. Kiké Hernández had a 1.3 bWAR and is 2 years older. But Newman has never played in the postseason, so Kiké has a huge advantage.
They have also picked up 1B/DH Ryan Noda off waivers from Oakland, and they have traded for utility infielder/CF Scott Kingery from Philadelphia for cash.
They are better with Kyle Hendricks and Jorge Soler than just Griffin Canning. With the young position players 1B Nolan Schanuel, SS Zach Neto, and C Logan O’Hoppe, and veterans Luis Rengifo and Taylor Ward to go with future HOF OF/DH Mike Trout they are making a decent foundation. I hold out zero hope for Anthony Rendon.
Three youngsters in the rotation with veterans Tyler Anderson and Kyle Hendricks: 24 year old Jack Kochanowicz, 25 year old Reid Detmers, and 26 year old José Soriano. They also have a potential Ace in 21 year old Caden Dana, who reached MLB at 20. 26 year old Sam Bachman is also a pitcher the team is high on.
Their 2024 1st round pick, 2B Christian Moore, hit very well at AA. The Angels love to push their draft picks, Nolan Schanuel and Zach Neto, spent very minimal time in MiLB: Schanuel (22 games – 97 PA) and Neto (48 games – 217 PA).
Besides Moore, the Angels have another potential star. CF Nelson Rada spent the entire 2024 season at AA at the age of 18.
I do not see them spending big in FA (no Corbin Burnes), but I do think they will continue to add pieces. If their pitching continues to gel and Mike Trout can stay healthy, they could become a WC contender in 2025.
Shocker. Shohei wins 4th consecutive Edgar Martinez Outstanding DH Award.
Some interesting thoughts in here this morning.
The next Dodger prodigy. Consequences of not drafting well, reverse engineering of the pitching staff… and more. This is why I come here.
I think drafting as low as the team does every year makes it difficult to find prodigies. Difficult but not impossible. And a few players we are looking at signing come with draft implications. Draft, develop then trade them along with signing the best fit free agents looks to me the way the Dodgers do it. Having the money to do just above anything you want is sure a bonus. Yay us.
The reverse engineering idea appears to be the way the Dodgers are doing it. Nobody threw more than140 innings and the one guy that reached that mark, Gavin Stone, was lost with injury, joining several other Dodger starters on the IL for a year. The $300 million man threw 90 innings. The #1 starter, the ace, Tyler Glasnow threw 134 and was lost to the playoffs. I’ve been pimping a 6 man rotation for years now for this very reason. This rash of pitching injuries was predictable and in fact predicted. Looks to me like a 6 man rotation will not be enough. I wonder how May and Gonsolin will be used? The Dodgers started 18 different pitchers this year. 2025? Here we go again.
I like Edman used the way he was but I do prefer an everyday shortstop. Always have. Up the middle defense strength still resonates with me. Always has and always will. Can you have plus defenders at all 4 spots? You can try. Smith, Adames, Betts, Edman works for me. Robert Jr in center with Edman taking the full time play somewhere everyday utility role works for me too. That would make Kiké and/or CT3 superfluous. Lux is traded on my depth chart. To Chicago? Maybe.
Haven’t heard anything here about Cartaya. Or much about Rushing. Draft, develop, trade?
OK. Enough words for now. Thank all of you for yours.