I got sidetracked from a couple of my posts in progress because of the CF discussion, which prompted some further discussion from me on the overall lack of MLB ready CF talent in the organization.
In the discussion between James Outman and Andy Pages as the regular CF, there were multiple posters indicating that they favored Pages over Outman because of the eye test. I am not sure what the eye test is. They both look like athletes. Outman was a decorated linebacker on a solid HS football team where he was a MaxPreps All Northern California linebacker. Outman is 6’2”, 215 pounds and Pages 6’1”, 212 pounds.
In Outman’s 2023 rookie season slash line – .248/.353/.437/.790. Pages in 2024 slash line .248/.309/.407/.716.
They both had the same bat speed. Pages does have better bat to ball skills, there is no denying that. Outman will K more, no denying that. Pages’ bat to ball skills measured by squared up, whiff, and K rates are superior to Outman. However, not that much better as Pages is also in the Statcast blue zone. Yet Outman’s chase and walk rates are in the red and far superior to Pages.
In Outman’s rookie year, 2023, he had an OAA of 9 and was in the 94th percentile. In Pages’ rookie year, 2024, his OAA was 1 in the 75th percentile.
Outman’s sprint speed was 28.9 (89th percentile). Pages’ sprint speed was 28.3 (75th percentile).
Outman will strike out a ton. But that is the one area that Pages is better. For some that is more important than any other metric. I don’t like the strikeouts. But I do have a tendency to put more emphasis on defense than most. There was nothing in Pages’ ST that says he will be a better hitter in 2025 than he was in 2024.
Anyway, as I said before, that debate is over. Pages won. Time to move on. Maybe AF/BG uses the same eye test. But there is a more profound problem in the LAD organization. It is the lack of MLB ready position players. It is apparent at all positions, but CF is a real problem.
Let me preface this with a statement, IMO AF is the best POBO in MLB. I am not sure that anyone is close. Now I know that some will call me a moron, but AF is not immune to missteps. It is one thing too just add a caveat saying AF does make missteps, but then not mention what those missteps might be, and still anyone who disagrees with that is a moron. I can live with that. I have been called worse.
AF joined the Dodgers before the 2015 season. Since then the Dodgers have exactly one homegrown position player as a regular (Will Smith). Andy Pages is probably at best a 4th OF if the Dodgers had a CF, so I am not ready to label him a regular. But I do hope he has a solid season that would make him a second homegrown regular.
Let’s look at the Dodgers options for CF. They have big time misses in Jeren Kendall (1st round 2017) and Jake Vogel (3rd round 2020). Kendall is out of the game, and I have no idea how long Vogel will be there. Jake has already spent the last two years at Great Lakes (A+) and last year had a slash line of .177/.298/.244/.541. Not very encouraging. José Ramos is scheduled to return to Tulsa for a 3rd year as the CF, and Fangraphs’ Roster Resource has Vogel returning to Great Lakes where he will probably play behind Kendall George.
Other than Outman or Hyeseong Kim, the closest prospect to being MLB ready is Kendall George (1st round 2023). But his offense has not really taken off, and his defense to a step back last year (7 errors in 152 chances). He is still young and will get his first look at advanced A in Great Lakes. Maybe something clicks this year in A+, but the Midwest League is more of a pitcher’s league than the California League.
Lower level prospects include Eduardo Quintero who will play a full season at Rancho this year. Also starting his professional career at Rancho will be Mike Sirota, the Reds player returned in the Gavin Lux trade. I can still call him homegrown because he has not yet appeared with any professional team. He will be fully developed in the LAD organization.
Other OF capable of CF tentatively landing in Rancho include Samuel Munoz (IFA), Kole Myers (9th round 2024), and Jarron Elkins (8th round 2023).
We will get a look at possibly three rookie level CF this year: Brandon Tunink (8th round 2024), Ching-Hsien Ko (IFA), Jose Gonzalez (IFA).
But all of those A+ and A prospects are at least 3 years away.
One other interesting choice is the possibility that Kellon Lindsey (1st round 2024) could move to CF. The concern with Lindsey at SS is his average arm at that position. The Dodgers will do everything possible to develop Kellon as a SS and hope he can climb the ladder quickly.
I do not include Josue DePaula or Zyhir Hope in this exercise as neither are CF prospects.
My hopes are that Outman is traded before the start of the regular season to a team that will value him more than the Dodgers. He is 27 and will have no options after this year. If he stays the full season at OKC he will be non-tendered next year and can sign with any team. The Dodgers do not have plans for Outman, so why not give him a chance at a MLB job with another team. Sometimes it isn’t always what is best for the team, but sometimes it should be what is best for the player. Especially when keeping Outman at OKC for insurance purposes is why he is retained.
Hyeseong Kim is a potential CF candidate. But is he better at 2B with Edman in CF?
After that, there are no CF hopefuls anytime soon. I am sure that AF/BG will take a long look Luis Robert Jr. if he stays healthy at the deadline. Robert Jr. does have 2 option years ($20MM each), not that unwieldly for LAD.
Other potential CF free agents next year:
- Cedric Mullins (31)
- Harrison Bader (32) – mutual option
- Trent Grisham (29)
- Garrett Hampson (31)
- Travis Jankowski (35)
- Manuel Margot (31)
- Michael A. Taylor (35)
- Kevin Pillar (37)
Garrett Hampson should be available this year as he is expected to opt out of his Arizona MiLB contract.
I have not done a thorough review of potential CF trade candidates. But my quick look-see gives me pause to believe that any quality CF in other organizations will be traded.
It is not like the Dodgers have not made attempts at drafting CF. It is just that they have not panned out. Outman was not a CF prospect when he was drafted. He played almost exclusively in RF at Sac State. And yet his athleticism allowed him to become one of the better defensive CF in MLB.
Slim pickings.
MLB finally made a ruling on Julio Urias. He is suspended until the All-Star break. His ineligible status will be lifted July 17th. Somebody is going to sign him at a very reduced price. CF is a problem, has been since Bellinger left.
Yarbrough opting out of his Jays contract, Mark Canha traded by the Brewers to the Royals for a PTBNL and cash. D-Backs gave Justin Martinez a 5-year extension for 18 mil. He also has two club options. Rays traded RHP Nathan Wiles to the Braves for cash. Darvish will start the season on the IL. Thairo Estrada will miss 4-8 weeks with a broken wrist according to the Rockies. Mets signed former Dodger, Billy McKinney to a minor league deal. Dominic Smith opted out of his contract with the Yankees. Garrett Hampson opted out of his deal with Arizona. Cubs released infielder, Nicky Lopez.
I got Quintero after Pages.
Orioles signed Kyle Gibson.
Dodgers back in action tomorrow night at Dodger Stadium.
I think we’re covered in CF for the next 2-3 years: Tommy Edman. Let him play there until the younger guys Jeff mentioned prove they’re still top prospects in AA and AAA.
In the meantime, we also about 10 right handed AAAA guys that could/should be traded for a MLB ready CF’er.
Jeff D. your astute comment “Sometimes it isn’t always what is best for the team, but sometimes it should be what is best for the player.” couldn’t be more accurate and empathetic to the players.
Outman (and some other Dodgers like Feduccia) are stuck in the organization.
Before 1975, many potential big league players were stuck in an organization, unable to get a chance elsewhere.
It was called the reserve clause. Players were indentured servants until they retired, got traded, got released, or died waiting for an opportunity.
The reserve clause was struck down in 1975.
That was to change everything for players.
Well in some cases, like Outman, it hasn’t changed as long as organizations stubbornly stock-piling talent in the minors. And their chances are diminished every time the organization acquires another player through trades or free agency and drops them on top of the AAAA player.
I absolutely agree that this is bad for a player and it was the reason for free-agency to begin with.
I think the lack of outfielder prospects in the Dodgers system is a subject that’s been discussed here and elsewhere for years.
It’s true. There hasn’t been.
Now, is this evidence of some inability or weakness in the AF regime’s ability to draft position players? I mean, Scott would say so, but he’s a bit nutty, so there’s that; but I think Jeff has hinted at that, too.
Maybe, but I don’t really buy that.
I mean, number one, you’re never going to completely overcome the Dodgers draft position. They’re always going to be at a disadvantage. Yeah, they’ve whiffed on a few, but are they worse than any other MLB team if you factor in their draft position?
And number two, I think the Dodgers have a strategy.
They look at their draft and player development as accumulating aggregate value. They can use that value to either perform at the MLB level or trade that value for positions of need.
The Dodgers ability to develop pitching is well documented. They’re a machine. They can take a lower draft position or cast-off from another team, revamp or develop that pitcher and increase his value.
Now you have value that you can trade. It’s a fungible asset.
So, rather than try to draft an outfielder prospect to fill a position of need, which is a longshot, trade for one from a position of strength.
I’ve never played with that trade simulator, but it’s based on the idea of WAR as a kind of currency.
I’m not concerned about outfield now so much. Maybe long term, the thing that I think about is the fact that Freddie, Ohtani, Mookie, Teoscar, and Max are on the wrong side of 30. There’s a window open now, that won’t be open for very long.
Well, if Mookie does end up playing SS, which I don’t think is a good idea, and if Kim sometime this year starts to get used to MLB pitching, he can play 2B…..then we would or should move Edman to CF. Being a switch hitter, he can practically be full time, although you can probably give either Outman or Pages a chance to play when you want to give Edman and or Conforto a day off every so often.
A feel-good piece about Dodger prospects…
https://www.mlb.com/dodgers/news/los-angeles-dodgers-spring-training-report-2025?t=mlb-pipeline-coverage
If tge Dodgers want a legit centeegield they should use Andy Pages or James Outman and go get a Cedric Mullins or Trent Grissom so they have a legit centerfielder in all the years I’ve watched them they always seem to get a guy from another team that doesn’t okay until there’s a rookie ready to be up in the big leagues. They git Brett Butler from the Giants Marquis Grissom from the Braves and Ken Landreaux from the As so that’s what I think they should do is trade for a legit centefielder then Tommy and Mookie play 2b and SS and Rojas gives those guys days off along with Kiki and Taylor. I would think Trent Grissom would be the better choice an expadre. How about that an ex giant and ex padre starting this year for the Dodgers in the outfield.
If Mookie needs to go on the IL–and to me this feels likely–who should the Dodgers summon to replace him on the roster?
With Rojas, Edman, Taylor and Kike all able to cover SS and 2B, I’d lobby for Outman. But I like Bote too.
An Outman/Pages platoon has potential, despite the struggles of both players. They’d likely be batting 8th or 9th in the lineup.
The question with Bote is whether his impressive spring performance reflects true progress or just a small-sample thrill. If the brass believes in Bote, he could handle 2B.
Alex Freeland? Not yet proven–but probably more ready than Kim. Rushing? Not the right fit.
Am I forgetting somebody?