The money going out the door this year is insane.
Jacob deGrom – 5 years $186MM – When was the last time he had a full season of starts? After $500MM committed to two SS last winter, Chris Young may be in over his head. But the owners, Ray Davis and Bob Simpson, are giving him their blessing. Texas needs to put behinds in the seats of that new stadium. Texas has the 2024 All Star game, so they want a contending team. All is good with the Rangers.
Justin Verlander – 2 years $86.67MM, with a $37MM vesting option if JV throws 140 innings in 2024.
Trea Turner – 11 years $300MM, but turned down what has been reported as more than $342MM from San Diego. I like Trea Turner, but not that much.
Edwin Díaz – 5 years $102MM for a relief pitcher. I don’t care how good he is.
Taijuan Walker – 4 years $72MM. $18MM AAV. His best year was last year, and he earned a 2.5 fWAR. That supported $20.1MM. What are the chances he repeats that 4 more years? He went from 2/$20MM to 4/$72. I will stick with Ryan Pepiot at ML minimum.
José Abreu – 3 years $58.5MM.
Tommy Kahnle – 2 years $11.5MM – 13.2 IP in the last 3 years (in total).
Rafael Montero – 3 years $34.5MM – Career ERA 4.64, career WHIP 1.458.
Chris Martin – 2 years $17.5MM – I like CMart but 2 years at $8.75MM per year seems a little steep for a 7th inning reliever. Even one that does not walk anyone.
Matt Strahm – 2 years $15.0MM – After 44.2 IP and a 3.83 ERA he deserves 150% raise for two years? Momma, let your sons grow up to be LH pitchers.
Aaron Judge – $362MM offer from San Francisco. It could go even higher. NYY is not done negotiating.
The insane contracts for deGrom and Verlander are only going to drive the costs up for the next level. Carlos Rodón, Chris Bassitt, Jameson Taillon, Sean Manaea, Noah Syndergaard, Nathan Eovaldi, Ross Stripling, and Michael Wacha are doing back flips with how the market has gone north. We saw what it did for Taijuan Walker.
Andrew Heaney signed for two years and $25MM guaranteed, with incentives that could take it to $37MM. This is a pitcher who gives up more HRs than almost any MLB starting pitcher. His HR % was 4.5, with an MLB Average around 3.0. He is in the bottom 2 percentile in average exit velocity, bottom 1 percentile in hard hit %, and bottom 4 percentile in barrels. He is basically a 2 pitch pitcher: fastball and slider. He will throw the changeup, but very infrequently (5%). He was released by NYY, signed for 1 year and threw 72.2 innings for LAD. He has thrown more than 130 innings just once in his career (2018). His next highest IP was 129.2 in 2021. He has a career ERA of 4.56 and a career WHIP of 1.245. Heaney reportedly turned down more lucrative guarantees, including one north of $30MM from Boston, because of his relationship with Chris Young.
Reasonable contracts include:
Cleveland and Josh Bell for 2 years and $33MM with an opt out after 2023.
Giants and Mitch Haniger 3 years $43MM.
LAA and Tyler Anderson for 3 years $39MM which was a relative steal compared to Tampa Bay’s Zach Eflin 3 year $40MM FA signing.
LAD and Clayton Kershaw for 1 year at $20MM
Koudai Senga is reported to be asking for $20MM AAV. This is what happens when Taijuan Walker gets $18MM AAV. He was originally reported to looking for $15MM AAV. NYM seem to be the favorite as I write this. Always subject to change. The Dodgers and Red Sox always seem to come up at least second best in the FA negotiations.
I make no value judgement as to the fairness of the contracts. Simply an observation.
Besides the Trea Turner contract, it is expected that there will be two more $300MM contracts: Aaron Judge and Carlos Correa. I don’t expect the Dodgers to be signing either of those players.
How often do we need to hear that the team is going the youth route this year before we believe them?
——————
The first ever MLB lottery was held on Tuesday, and the Pirates were the lottery winner. As a result they moved up 2 spots from #3 to #1. The Minnesota Twins were the biggest mover. They moved up 8 spots from what would have been spot #13 to spot #5. The Tigers and Rangers moved up 3 spots. The A’s and the Reds were the big losers as they dropped 4 spots from what would have been #2 to #6. KC dropped 3 spots and Colorado dropped 2.
The Dodgers select #26. The last twelve spots are dictated by how they fared in the playoffs. The Dodgers dropped from what would have been #30 to #26 because they lost the NLDS.
——————
The Rule 5 draft will be held on Wednesday. How many Dodgers will be drafted? I still think the most vulnerable will be (in no particular order):
- Ryan Noda
- Carlos Duran
- José Ramos
- Justin Yurchak
- Devin Mann – doubtful but who knows if some team could be looking for a utility player.
The Dodgers have 3 spots on their 40 man. Will they take a chance on anyone else’s Rule 5 eligible player?
Finally, I came across the item below. It is sad to think about it.
Yeah, sad to our stars leaving. Just another sign of the times.
A topic to discuss maybe is something Bluto and I exchanged opinions on and is mentioned in the LA Times this morning. “The biggest challenge for MLB – and every US sports league – is the collapse of cable and satellite TV. Those mega-contracts have been funded by deals with regional sports networks (RSN) which pays enormously providing some teams the money to spend lavishly on players.” The downside of course is what I was mentioning – the level of revenue disparity makes it impossible for some markets to compete. It’s never been more evident than it is today.
Another interesting article this morning was written by Dylan Hernandez suggesting something talked about here, and on other blogs, which is the need for a vocal leader on this club. Honestly I didn’t feel it necessary but apparently getting paid hundreds of thousands every week, some players every night, is not enough motivation. These spoiled brats need f’n cheerleaders and internal motivational speakers. I find that interesting as most motivational speakers I’m familiar with are there to encourage ways to make more money. That’s not what is needed here. What’s needed here apparently is motivation to accomplish what they are getting paid millions to do. Weird. The good news is Roberts thinks maybe he should take on the role. Yeah, the manager motivating. Good plan Dave. One could ask, where have you been dude?… but I’ll leave that for others.
Just saw Judge back to the Yankees. Good. Now the giants can sign Correa and Rodón and we can… what is it we’re going to do?
Kenley goes to the Red Sox. 2 years, 32 mil. Nice work KJ!
Mets sign Quintana.
We are no longer King of the Hill. Will have to fight SD and SF $ for every player.
SD offered significantly more for Turner and just as significantly more for Judge. They offered $342MM for Turner (years unknown) and $400MM over 10 years for Judge. Same AAV but for one more guaranteed year. I am guessing that the Giants offer was not for 9 years as was NYY or NYY simply matched SFG and Judge chose NYY. $40MM a year for 9 years.
If Judge had accepted San Diego’s offer, that would have put their AAV payroll at $270MM. San Diego is playing in the big boy’s playground, and it looks like they are serious.
Judge is 6’7” and 282 pounds. A body that large does not often age well when playing games 6 days out of 7. Judge has had problems in the past staying on the field. It is only going to get worse. I guess this makes Harrison Bader more important to NYY. Judge can now stay in RF. A little less wear and tear on his legs.
NYY’s AAV payroll sits at $265MM, and they still have work to do. They have the same team except without Jameson Taillon and Matt Carpenter. They have replaced Miguel Castro with Tommy Kahnle and Benintendi with Oswaldo Cabrera. Carpenter was great for NYY down the stretch, but he is not needed.
We are witnessing what SP is going for, and NYY basically has no depth at all in their SP. Jordan Montgomery is gone. Once highly touted Deivi Garcia seems to be fizzling out. Clayton Beeter is their 2nd highest rated SP. What happens if Montas, Severino, or Germán go down again this year.
I guess Gleyber Torres is now available for pitching. They probably waited too long to trade Torres who has 1 year of control remaining. Brian Cashman is going to be calling Kim Ng for some of that SP Miami has stashed.
Would people here rather have Dansby or Nimmo?
St. Louis and Willson Contreras agree on a 5 year $87.5MM deal. That will take Contreras through his age 35 season. What would it cost to extend Will Smith 5 years? Now is the perfect time. Their payroll is down. It will take him out of his 3 arbitration years and 2 FA years. 5 years will take him through his age 32 season. Maybe 4 years which would be 1 year before Freddie’s deal is up. 4 years $50MM with a vesting option for a 5th year. That would put Smith #5 on the catcher’s payroll list just above James McCann. Smith deserves to be above McCann.
Oakland joins in. Aledyms Díaz 2 years $14.5MM. He will do well in Oakland.
Philly signs Trea Turner for $300MM and San Diego offers $342MM. Meanwhile Oakland signs Díaz for $14.5MM. I believe this is what Badger is talking about.
Hopefully Boston ownership will let Chaim Bloom spend some of those Red Sox $$$ and re-sign Xander Bogaerts (of course I am also a Boston and Philly fan). Both sides are in “heavy” discussions right now and are reporting “momentum”. Will Bloom be able to bring it home? They have no real SP. Will they re-sign Michael Wacha and Nathan Eovaldi? Will Chris Sale actually be able to pitch this year? They need a RF. They are losing JDM and replacing him with Eric Hosmer.
Boston is $75.7 million south of the CBT threshold. Bogaerts, Wacha, and Eovaldi can easily fit in that window. OF – Wil Myers or even Joey Gallo could fit on one year “show me what you got” contracts. Gallo would love that short RF and the 302 foot Johnny Pesky foul pole. Would he make enough contact? It sure would be fun to watch him. They could bring back Christian Vazquez.
Boston can make it work this year and worry about Devers next winter. Uber prospect Marcelo Mayer should be ready in two years. Bogie can move to 3B and Mayer can be SS. If they sign Bogie, Devers becomes far more expendable.
How about the Dodgers and Red Sox make another of those crazy trades. Devers and Chris Sale for Michael Busch (to play LF), Ryan Pepiot, Max Muncy, lottery ticket (Maddux Bruns). Instead of cash coming back to LAD as it did with Price, LAD sends Muncy who is $12MM less than Sale, and would play 3B. They could exercise Muncy’s option next year at $14MM. Then in 2025, Bogie moves to 3B and Mayer takes over at SS. Dodgers can easily absorb Sale’s contract for two years. They wanted a pitcher on a short term deal anyway.
Mets picked up a good LHRP in Brooks Raley from Tampa Bay for a 23 year old LHSP who has ascended to A+ in the NYM system. He is not one of NYM’s top 30 prospects, but some how Tampa Bay seems to almost always make these transactions work.
NYM quickly approaching $300MM and still needs more.
Kenny Rosenthal’s latest article in The Athletic makes a point of the fact that the unresolved Bauer situation is causing the Dodgers to hesitate on making big money deals.
If the entire suspension is upheld they won’t owe anything, but if the arbitrator cuts back some or all of the suspension they could owe as much as 100 million in salary and penalty taxes.
I’m going to say once again that I can’t believe the Dodgers aren’t making a bigger stink over this. There should come a point in instances like this where the penalty is done away with so at least they can partially plan their moves. There should also be a limit as to how long a case like this can continue without resolution. Totally outrageous!
Oakland picks Ryan Noda as the #2 overall Rule 5 draft. Right after, Pittsburgh selected LHP Jose Hernandez as the #3 overall.
Milwaukee selects Gus Varland (18th overall).
Dodgers pass in 1st round.
Dodgers lost 3…Ryan Noda, Jose Hernandez, and Gus Varland. Noda was blocked, and neither Hernandez or Varland are going to be much of a loss.
The Dodgers lost 2 players in the MiLB phase of the Rule 5 draft, and picked up 3.
Lost:
1st Round:
Toronto – (C) Kekai Rios from AA roster
3rd Round
St. Louis – RHP José Martinez AA roster
Selected:
Yon Castro – RHP from NYY A roster.
Carlo Reyes RHP from Philadelphia High A roster.
Josh Stowers OF Texas AA Roster
Red Sox sign Masataka Yoshida for 5 years $85MM+. That did not take long for him to sign. Same deal as the Cubs with Seiya Suzuki.
Xander Bogaerts signs with San Diego. 11 years – $280MM.