Future LAD Pitching

I believe we have discussed ad nauseum about where the starting pitching is at now, and where it might be next year.

It is widely reported that Walker Buehler will not start the season in the rotation, hoping to properly ramp him up for October.  With that caveat, the rotation could look like:

• Yoshinobu Yamamoto
• Tyler Glasnow
• Bobby Miller
• James Paxton
• And 2 of Emmet Sheehan/Gavin Stone/Ryan Yarbrough
• Once Walker resumes his spot in the rotation, only one of Emmet Sheehan/Gavin Stone/Ryan Yarbrough will remain. The above assumes that there will be a 6-man rotation.

Dustin May is reportedly going to return around the All Star Break or Trade Deadline.   But it is currently assumed he will end up in the bullpen for the remainder of this season.  And probably more middle relief to keep the stress innings down until October.

Next year Shohei Ohtani, Dustin May, and Tony Gonsolin will return to compete for the rotation.  Well Ohtani will not have to compete for a spot.  The 2025 rotation could look like:

• Yoshinobu Yamamoto
• Tyler Glasnow
• Bobby Miller
• Shohei Ohtani
• And two of Dustin May, Tony Gonsolin, Emmet Sheehan, Gavin Stone

That would also assume that Walker Buehler will be allowed to walk, and I am not at all ready to make that assumption.  But he will not be under contract after this season.  Paxton is nothing more than a bridge to 2025.  Yarbrough does not figure to stay after 2024.

Let’s not forget that Corbin Burnes and Max Fried will be free agents with Buehler.  And what if Lucas Giolito goes off with Boston and he decides to opt out?  And what if Shane Bieber fully recovers from whatever has been ailing him?

Now AF/BG have decisions.  What to do with the two who do not make the rotation (or three if Buehler or another elite FA is signed).  What happens with Nick Frasso, River Ryan, Landon Knack who will all be MLB ready during the season.  That does not include Michael Grove or Kyle Hurt who are more well suited for the bullpen as long as they are with the Dodgers.

Do the Dodgers consider trading Gonsolin or May?  May is the biggest gamble as he has the much higher ceiling and the much lower floor.  His stuff plays very well, but can he keep cool as a starter long enough to keep the stress innings down.  He has a tendency to go a million miles per hour at all times.  That would work better in the pen, but his stuff is just too good to ignore.

I love competition, and let the best come to the front of the line.

It is clear that all cannot be retained by the Dodgers.  To steal a line, even Ray Charles can see that.  Sheehan, Stone, Frasso, Ryan, Knack, Hurt, and Grove are the last of the current wave of MLB and MLB ready pitchers in the LAD organization.  Sheehan, Frasso, and Ryan are my three “Do Not Trade” pitchers.

Now for the next wave of pitchers, and there are a lot of them (I can get to the position players later).  Some have been moved to relief already, and others will find themselves there.

When I looked at the Baseball America Top 30 Dodgers, I noticed a player who has been out of the top 30 for a looooong time…LHP John Rooney.  Rooney was the LAD #3 draft pick out of Hofstra in 2018.  He languished in obscurity while he was a starter.  But since being moved to the bullpen fulltime in 2023, he has flourished.  He is a LHP with perhaps the best move to 1B of any MiLB pitcher, and I would guess better than 90% MLB pitchers (a guess with no support).  He is taking advantage of his specific skill set in the new “let’em run” game so well, that he is now being perceived as a potential weapon.  He has also pushed his GO/AO ratio to 1.84, a poster child of a ground ball pitcher.  He does give up more HRs to RH batters than he should, but that is something he can work on this year at OKC.  He had a 3-1 K/BB rate. He could be the next Scott Alexander.  Not a star, but a situational LHP that can be effective, especially against LH batters.

Another potential reliever who did not do well as a starter is another lefty…Alec Gamboa.  Like Rooney, Gamboa just turned 27 (11 days older than Rooney).  He still walks too many, but that is something he can also work on at OKC.  I do not get so put off by older relievers.  They are generally pitchers who did not succeed as starters and now later in their career have found a spot in the pen.

Another of those starters turned to relievers and not in the current Top 30 is RHP Carlos Duran.  I have written about Duran on multiple occasions.  He has a chance to become a very successful high leverage late inning reliever.  He is returning from TJ surgery this year.  He is currently on the OKC roster, and he has a chance to shine this year.  I have been waiting for him to “arrive” for two years now.  He is still only 22.

I have written quite a bit about yet another LHRP who is a converted SP…Ronan Kopp.  Mark has also mentioned Kopp on multiple occasions.  Kopp should start the year in Tulsa (AA), but dominating relievers (especially LHRP) have a tendency to move quickly.  Kopp is only 21, so he has time to fully percolate.

One other fulltime reliever that many are high on (me not so much) is RHRP Jake Pilarski.

But when we talk about the next wave, we are really talking about potential rotation studs.

In level attained order, not in potential impact order or top prospect order:

Kendall Williams – 23 year old RHP – Williams (pictured) was a 2^nd round pick of the Toronto Blue Jays.  He was acquired by LAD in September 2020 in the Ross Stripling trade.  One of my favorites was Strip, so naturally, I had to become a fan of Williams.  I remain one.  He is not in any of the LAD Top Prospect lists thus far, and I do not understand why not.  He has been a better pitcher than Maddux Bruns and Peter Heubeck (two other pitchers in the next wave) and is 22 months older than Bruns (1 year baseball age) and 23 months older than Heubeck.  Williams dominated at Great Lakes and pitched very well at Tulsa as a 22 year old.  Bruns and Heubeck did not fare very well at all at Great Lakes.  Williams reached AAA last year.  However with the number of pitchers expected at OKC, he may start the year at Tulsa.  But if he excels, look for a quick move to OKC. Williams has  four pitch arsenal, that he can polish this year.  He was not protected for the Rule 5 draft, and was not selected.  I am stubborn, I still like him.

Ben Casparius – 25 year old RHP – He is another athlete who can also play the corner infield positions (maybe not well, but he did as a collegian).  Casparius reached AA last year.  He has a plus plus slider, but not much else. Below average fastball and change. He looks to be a prime candidate for the bullpen.  I included him in this topic because there are some who believe that Casparius has a future with the Dodgers.  IMO, his best value for LAD is to be packaged in a trade as a lottery ticket.

Justin Wrobleski – 23 year old LHSP – Wrobleski was my dark horse prospect last year, and he delivered (at least IMO).  Wrobleski is the best LHSP prospect in the LAD organization not named Jackson Ferris.  Yes, IMO, he is a better prospect than Maddux Bruns.  His FB sits at 93-95 and touches 96.  He has a mid-80s slider that is close to MLB ready.  LAD likes their pitcher’s sliders in the 87-88 MPH range. He throws both a curve and cutter, but will probably concentrate on one of them to make his primary 3^rd pitch. But can throw both for strikes.  His ability to shape and manipulate his fastball negates the absolute need for a 4^th pitch, but can give him a 5^th pitch like Bobby Miller.  He dominated at Great Lakes with 102.1 IP.  2.90 ERA, 109 K, and 35BB.  He figures to get a promotion to AA to start the season as a 23 year old.  He is progressing one step at a time, which seems to indicate a mid-backend starter, but also one with huge reliever risk.

Maddux Bruns – 22 year old LHSP – Bruns is the epitome of a pitcher with a big arm and ZERO control.  He improved his BB/9 from over 9 to 6.22.  6.22 BB per 9 innings is not sustainable.  In 76 IP at Great Lakes, Bruns had a 4.74 ERA with 93 K and 54 BB.  Compare that to both Kendall Williams and Justin Wrobleski.  Bruns is a big strikeout pitcher, but unless he can get his walks under control, he is not going to be a MLB starting pitcher.  Yes, I know all about how wild Sandy Koufax was.  But please do not include Maddux Bruns in any Koufax comparison discussion on any level.  It is simply not warranted.  As I wrote above, Bruns has a big arm.  He has three plus pitches and an average 4^th pitch.  But it is the 40 control that he needs to harness.  Does he have to change any of his pitches effectiveness to get that control to at least 50?  I have no idea where he starts this year.  He is still young enough to start at Great Lakes to get confidence, and still make AA during the season.  The Dodgers still believe in the arm.

Jared Karros – 23 year old RHSP – Karros is my 2024 dark horse prospect.  I am working on a piece just on Karros.  As everyone knows, Jared is the son of former LAD star 1B Eric Karros.  Karros is a UCLA Bruin who really did not pitch much after early in his sophomore year with a bad back.  He was the Friday night pitcher (AKA top Starter on the college team) as he started his Sophomore year.  BTW, if you are a Friday Night pitcher for UCLA, you are very good.  Even though Karros had not pitched in more than 1.5 years, the Dodgers drafted him in the 16^th round in the 2022 draft.  He chose to sign with LAD instead of going back to UCLA and reestablish himself as a star, because he had always dreamed of pitching for the Dodgers.   Karros did not debut in the LAD organization until 2023.

Karros started at Single A Rancho Cucamonga and finished at High A Great Lakes.  He didn’t allow a run in his last 3 regular season appearances, and allowed just 2 earned runs in his last 29 innings of regular season work. He struck out 30 hitters in that span and walked just 4.  He was California League Pitcher of the Month for May, and was California League Pitcher of the Week 07/02/2023. Karros is still a baby with IP.  He did not start pitching until his Junior Year in High School, and missed most of his college career.  He is now injury free, and he should start out the year at Great Lakes, but could move to Tulsa by mid-season.  I think we could see another Karros star with the Dodgers in the next couple of years.

Peter Heubeck – 21 year old RHSP – Heubeck is another of those big arms that has not been able to put it all together yet.  He was the 2^nd LAD pick (3^rd round) in the 2021 draft behind Maddux Bruns. Heubeck has a four pitch arsenal with his best pitch his plus curve with a down break.  His fastball sits 91-93 and touches 95, but gets good vertical movement.  He has a power slider that reaches 87-88 exactly where the Dodgers want it. He also has a change that is developing, but shows signs of fade and sink.  Heubeck is another big strikeout pitcher with questionable control, albeit better than Bruns. His BB/9 was 4.52.  Not good, but improving.  Heubeck is too good and too young to give up on. He did reach Great Lakes as a 20 year old.  He should start at Great Lakes, and from there???

Hyun-il Choi – 24 year old RHSP – In 2021, he was honored with the organization’s “Branch Rickey” Minor League Pitcher of the Year award.  After undergoing elbow surgery and rehabilitation in 2022, Choi finished the 2023 season with a 4–5 record and 3.75 ERA in 16 games at Great Lakes.  Choi is looking forward to catching up with teenage countryman RHP Hyun-Seok Jang.  Choi is the opposite of Bruns and Heubeck.  His control and command are better than his “stuff” at this stage of his career.  This is his 6^th year in the organization, so he is going to need to prove he is worthy to be kept on the MLB roster next year, or be lost to another team.  I like his chances.  You cannot be “Pitcher of the Year” in the LAD organization, and not have skills.  He could also be a nice part of a package in a potential trade.

What happens when a 2021 minor league pitcher of the year that averages 91 starts averaging almost 94?🧐

Hyun-il Choi lifetime PR in gym last week as we get ready for spring training . @TreadHQ pic.twitter.com/FlfNZMyikZ

— Drew Hall (@DTreatss) January 25, 2024

Jackson Ferris – 20 year old LHSP – I am a Michael Busch fan, but in the long run, the Dodgers should make out far better with Ferris than they would have with a blocked Busch.  Ferris and Payton Martin should be the stars of the next wave, and could have higher ceilings than any of the current wave of SP.  Ferris’ has a solid to plus 3-pitch arsenal with his fastball being his best offering.  His fastball sits at 92-95 and touches 97 with excellent carry.  He can live at the top of the zone with his fastball.  His curve is a swing and miss pitch in the mid-upper 70’s with a 12-6 break.  He is also developing a mid-80’s change.  Ferris struck out 77 batters in 56.0 IP, with a 3.38 ERA in his professional debut.  He could start at Great Lakes, but they may want to keep him in Rancho to keep him out of the early season cold weather at Great Lakes.  He is a potential 3 level pitcher in 2024.

Payton Martin – 19 year old RHSP (okay 20 year old baseball age) – I have written quite a bit about Payton Martin.  He has the makings of a top of the rotation pitcher who is just learning his trade.  He was committed to East Carolina as a SS.  The Dodgers loved his athleticism and decided to draft him in the 17^th round as a pitcher.  He signed for $125,000.  He has already reached #10 on a couple of lists.  The Dodgers are being extra careful with Martin who has not pitched much.  As a 19 year old he skipped rookie ball in the ACL and moved directly to Rancho.   At Rancho, even though a very limited sample size (14 games, 12 starts, 39.2 IP), Martin dominated California League hitters.  He had a 2.04, a 1.13 WHIP, and a .213 BAA.  Pretty impressive for a 19 year old converted SS pitching full time for the first time.  He is another who should start at Rancho and stay out of the cold weather for the early months at Great Lakes.  With two 20 year old starting pitchers with the ability of Ferris and Martin, the next wave could crest very high.

Jesus Tillero – 17 year old (18 on May 2) RHSP – Signed January 15, 2023, from Venezuela, at $497,500.  While it is difficult to get overly excited about a teenager in the DSL, what Tillero did last year in the DSL went above and beyond routine following.  He has a plus fastball that sits 94-95 and touches 97 (at 17) with excellent vertical break.  He has an above average slider that should get considerably better under the Dodgers tutelage.  He is developing a change, that should get better.

Tillero started 10 games and pitched 30.2 IP.  He compiled a 1.47 ERA, a 0.82 WHIP, and a .170 BAA.  He had 34 strikeouts and 6 walks.  He did not allow a HR.  He also has a 50 control which is verified by his walk total, and his command is also positive with the below average batting against. He is 2 years younger than either Ferris or Martin, and could match their accomplishments at their same age.  If he does, that will make 3 solid potential LAD starters in the next wave.  Then again, he could be a bust, but I do not think so.

Hyun-Seok Jang – 19 year old (20 in March) RHSP – Jang was the #1 Korean High School pitcher, and decided to sign with the Dodgers rather than face the KBO draft where he was sure to be the #1 pick.  The Dodgers chose not to pitch him at all in 2023.  He was assigned to one of the two DSL teams just as a place to assign him.  Jang has 3 plus pitches (fastball, curve, slider, with a 50 change and control). He sits 93-95 and touches 97, at 19. As I said yesterday, there is no reason to believe he cannot be another Chan Ho Park or Hyun-jin Ryu. We will get our first look at Jang this year.  Will it be in the ACL or will it be at Rancho?  Jang is the fourth teenager who could become a top of the rotation SP once he fully develops and matures.

Brady Smith – 19 year old RHP – Smith was the third round pick by the Dodgers last draft.  Same round as Dustin May (2016), Ryan Pepiot (2019), John Rooney (2018), and Peter Heubeck (2021).  He did not pitch for the Dodgers in 2023. He is another athlete who got a late start to his senior baseball season due to his basketball season.  Smith has a plus upper 70 MPH curve.  Last year his fastball sat at 91-93 topping at 95 with arm side run. He has a low 80’s slider that he will need to get up to 87-88. He has 50 control.  But that was as a part time baseball player/pitcher.  Without basketball, he will be able to concentrate on pitching.  He is also skinny for his 6’2” frame.  Smith will be worth watching to monitor how he physically and pitching matures.  Now that he is solely pitching, maybe he will take a Payton Martin move…or maybe not.

A couple of other pitchers of note:

Jerming Rosario – Made Great Lakes as a 21 year old from the DR.  67.0 IP at GL with a 4.70 ERA with 82 strikeouts and 33 walks.  Rosario. has always been a favorite of mine.  He was signed the same year as was Diego Cartaya.  Rosario turns 22 in May.  He still has time, but with the talent ahead of him, it will probably not be with the Dodgers.  Rosario is not considered a legit LAD prospect, but I like him, so I can include him.

Edgardo Henriquez – He is 21 (22 in June) who is returning from TJ surgery.  He will continue as a SP.  His fastball was a plus pitch that sat at 94-98 and topped out at 100. He also has the makings of a plus slider and average curve.   He is another hard thrower with minimal control.  He does have a lot of relief risk, but with a plus pitch, above average 2^nd pitch, and average 3^rd pitch, he will continue to start, until he doesn’t.  I look forward to watching both Henriquez and Carlos Duran as they come back from TJ surgery.

There are others very much on the fringe that I will be watching this year.  Those will eventually have to be converted to relief to be a viable pitcher in the LAD organization.

The Dodgers have plenty of pitching talent to cover until the next wave starts to break.