Many think Ohtani to the Dodgers is pretty much a lock. But if they miss out on Shohei, who should they target then in the starting pitching and DH positions?
Quite the question. Do they bring back fan favorite Justin Turner, or re-sign JD? Yardbarker suggested they bring back Joc Pederson. Unlikely since Joc doesn’t hit lefties at all.
Do they pursue free agent pitchers, or make some trades for the arms they need. I think their # 1 pitching target in free agency should be the Japanese lefty, Imanaga. Yamamoto would be the top choice, but I get the idea he is going to cost a ton of money.
I do understand how AF works now though. I have to believe although he will deviate some from the norm, he will also load up on those guys the Dodgers feel they can fix, or help get better. Especially pitchers.
I am a hard NO on Teoscar Hernandez. The reason? High strikeout totals. 211 last season, and according to his baseball reference page, over 162 games he averages 191 K’s. That to me is way too damn many missed chances.
Some say his stats took a dive moving to a pitchers park like Seattle. But a pitcher’s park has nothing to do with whiffing that much.
I still think they should pursue, or at least kick the tires on a trade with the Nats for Lane Thomas. I really like that kid. I also think they should test the waters on Jeimer Candelario as a third base option.
Let’s hear your ideas and thoughts. Time is getting short and the real hot stove is definitely getting warmed up.
We have no idea where Ohtani is going to sign. His negotiation meetings are very secret and if any information is leaked, that team will no longer be considered. The Dodgers still check off most of the presumed boxes. But others have seemingly gained some steam, especially Texas.
Like with the Dodgers, Ohtani is not going to overly help the Rangers and their outstanding offense, and it does nothing to help with their pitching. I am not going to undertake a marketing study to determine whether Texas would benefit more or less with Ohtani and global marketing. LA has the largest Japanese population outside of Japan.
However, the point is that none of us have any real insight as to where he will sign. I also believe we are all guessing that Ohtani is going to sign by the Winter Meetings. That is just sheer conjecture. Ohtani does not owe anyone to sign early.
I still contend that Ohtani would be more of a business investment than a baseball improvement. JDM had 103 RBIs as the DH last season. How many more runs can Ohtani produce. The Dodgers had a half million more in attendance than the next team, so he is not needed to fill the stadium. But he would help the business with global partnerships and global marketing.
The Dodgers do not need much more offense. They can always use it, but they do not need it. But they DO NEED pitching. I may be in the minority, but I do not believe the Dodgers will exceed 3 years and reach 9 figures for a pitcher. That is just not what they do. Imanaga? A good choice, but he is nowhere close to being discussed as a Dodger target. Of course with as tight lipped as the Dodgers are, who really knows who they are after.
All I can do is look at AF’s history. Brandon McCarthy, Scott Kazmir, Brett Anderson, Kenta Maeda, Alex Wood, Tyler Anderson, Andrew Heaney, and Noah Syndergaard. Why do I believe that all of a sudden he will look to sign one of the top tier pitchers. All AF has said is that he wants additional starting pitching. But he did not hint to what talent level he was referring.
I think he will be shopping in the Lucas Giolito, Jack Flaherty, Seth Lugo, Michael Wacha, Kenta Maeda, Hyun-jin Ryu, Michael Lorenzen, Luis Severino, Mike Clevinger, and Lance Lynn market.
I prefer Lane Thomas, but that would mean AF would have to trade some of his prize prospects. No, I do not believe the Dodgers will acquire Mike Trout. He will look at Adam Duvall from the right side or Jason Heyward from the left side. I believe there is better than 50-50 chance that both Vargas and Busch will find their way on the Dodgers roster. Vargas because he is RH (and his trade value is near bottom) and Busch because he has more ceiling than any other Dodger prospect.
Baseball America just came out with the top ten Dodgers prospects. Comments are per BA.
Per Baseball America each of the pitchers need a lot of work to achieve their ceiling.
If not Ohtani then pitching.
The Dodgers won 100 games without an ace. Kershaw was the closest to it with 13 wins (13th) and 131 IP (85th). Imagine what they could have done with better starting pitching.
It would be advantageous to find youthful long term bats. Vargas and Busch look like it in the system. I believe both will be successful but I also believe one will be traded. It’s possible, even likely, others may step up next year.
So if we don’t get Ohtani, and I still believe we will, I see Vargas at third, Muncy at DH and Busch traded for pitching. We don’t need Trout. We need pitching and the Dodgers will bring more than one in.
I disregard all the rumors and hype because of course FA is interested in everybody at this point. Someone who is not being mentioned only means it wouldn’t make good headlines.
On the field we need pitchers,of course, and then 2 proven rh bats to play OF and 3rd base. I do not see a place for Vargas or Busch but they could be traded for a player we need. I am assuming Heyward gets re-signed otherwise Busch could be a lh OF although I’m not sure he is a fit in RF.
Last year we let JT go and replaced him with JD. They both earned similar money and both batted well. But JD could only DH and JT could DH and play 3rd. JT was a fan favorite. He would fill 2 of the needs and could platoon w Muncie.
If I were an observer at a high school dance and watching the HS QB I might think that he is interested in a number of girls there. Some people I talk w might tell me he is most interested in the Prom queen which makes sense because she is beautiful and has recognition of the whole student body.
But early in the evening he is talking to lots of girls to gauge their mutual interest. He will double back to a few later on. Of course with his high school brain he would want the prom queen. But would she make a good girlfriend? Think Ginger or Mary Anne. I also have no idea what the QB is thinking, I can only speculate.
Isn’t this much like the off season? FA is said to be interested in everyone, especially Ohtani, Yamamoto etc. But on the field Ohtani doesn’t fill a need and might not be able to even DH when the season starts. Yamamoto is a good pitcher but Imani is also good and he is left handed,which we need.
If the Dodgers are really going big, then I want to see the Ed Sullivan show: Sign Blake Snell, Eduardo Rodriguez and JD Martinez. Then a blockbuster trade with Tampa Bay for Tyler Glasnow and Randy Arozarena.
Betts. 2B
Freeman. 1B
Arozarena RF
Muncy. 3B
Martinez. DH
Smith. C
Outman. CF
Vargas. LF
Lux. SS
Starting staff:
Blake Snell
Eduardo Rodriguez
Tyler Glasnow
Bobby Miller
Walker Buehler
Top tier starting pitching should be the #1 priority this off season.
Sure would be nice if either Busch or Vargas could handle 3B. As I see it, we already have a DH. Max Muncy. I do not like having a player that can only DH. I would like to see Muncy DH against righties and Will Smith DH against lefties.
Get a better backup catcher so Smith can get more days off and days as a DH.
It is time to give Fedducia a shot and move on from Barnes.
Agree with those who say high-end starting pitching is the biggest need.
I can make up a workable lineup from what we already have:
C–Smith
1B–Freeman
2B–Vargas
SS–Lux
3B–Busch
LF–Taylor
CF–Outman
RF–Betts
DH–Muncy
The trick is the improve a position or two. LF, 3B & DH jump out.
Rotation is likewise doable:
Miller
Buehler
Pepiot
Sheehan
Stone
Obviously, 2-3 spots here are questions as well.
One down. Aaron Nola re-signs with Philadelphia – 7 years, $172MM. He just set the bar for Boras. With Snell and Montgomery both Boras clients, that leaves Yamamoto and Gray as the top tier starters the Dodgers will be bidding on. Gray has a QO, so if they sign Ohtani, he is out.
SF, NYM, NYY are viewed as the top three for Yamamoto. I still do not believe AF will ever sign a pitcher to 7 years, even one who is 25. Until he does, we only have his history to inform us.
Nola, Wheeler, Suarez, and since Nola’s average $24.5MM is only $8.5MM over what he made last year, I am going with that Dombrowski is not done.
I will be pleasantly surprised if the Dodgers sign any pitcher above the talent level of Eduardo Rodriguez.
I like the Nola deal for both sides. Usually, i think baseball players should pursue the highest compensation they can, but Nola obviously wanted to stay in Philly.
Good on him.
Most good players love playing in Philly.
If Dombrowsky wanted him back, Nola wasn’t going to be allowed to leave.
And, he supposedly turned down larger offers from other teams.
For those who are on the bubble regarding “real” umps vs. electronic.
Courtesy of Codify Baseball:
MLB umpires had better accuracy calling balls and strikes this regular season than in any other regular season in history.
They missed over 21,000 calls.
Hearing Busch for Cease might be close. Other pieces involved but might be part of separate trade. Stay tuned.
A very interesting Rosenthal article in the Athletic on Ohtani’s worth. A few unnamed baseball execs weigh in:
“I would argue if he’s not pitching, he’s at least going to play the outfield, maybe center field,” one executive said. “At least at this stage of his career, he can really run. And you would think he could throw well enough.
“It’s still paying a lot for a corner outfielder, especially when you’re paying some for at least for the prospect of him pitching. But that’s a little bit of a soft landing if the pitching thing doesn’t work out. He’s one of the best athletes in the game. He should at least be able to play right field.”
In the piece it was mentioned that WAR is now closer to $9m than $8m. If he could play a corner outfield position, and I see no reason why he couldn’t, his value goes up. Along with the global bonanza his NIL would bring its being said again $500 million is not out of line, but medical records must be made available.He intends to pitch but nobody knows how much he may want to after 2 surgeries.
Some very creative contract structures are talked about, including $25m next year (a record for a DH) with an opt out and a team option of $396 over 9 years. A record $44m AAV. That one makes sense to me.
This will continue to be the most speculative subject for MLB until it is resolved. Everyone hopes it gets done soon so what follows can actually happen.
As the leading cheerleader for AF to get Lance Lynn at the trade deadline last season, I’m pleased to report I can’t make that mistake twice.
He has signed a one year deal with the Cardinals ($10MM).
Alex Anthopoulos is known for acting quickly every winter.
A few days ago he traded 5 guys for Aaron Bummer, which left him with 30 men on his 40-man roster.
Today he signed Reynaldo Lopez to a 3 year/$30MM contract and I’m sure that’s just the beginning.
He’ll probably fill up his entire 40 man roster before Andrew makes his first move.
Just different ways of doing business, I guess. Can’t argue with either guy’s success rate.
Blake Harris posted a quote from someone (although he didn’t say who) that claimed the Dodgers were in on Nola and offered him a deal for $165MM. Since he didn’t say where the quote was from I have no idea whether to believe it, but that leads to some questions:
1) Is Andrew actually willing to give up 4 draft choices (that’s what he would lose if he signed Nola and then signed Ohtani) ?
2) Does Andrew already know he’s not signing Ohtani?
3) Did AF want to make Dodger fans happy by pretending to go after an ace pitcher while at the same time making sure not to actually get him?
4) Can you actually believe anything you read online?
Baseball America’s New Top 10 list for LAD:
1. IF Michael Busch
2. C Dalton Rushing
3. RHP Gavin Stone
4. OF Andy Pages
5. RHP Nick Frasso
6. OF Josue De Paula
7. RHP Kyle Hurt
8. RHP River Ryan
9. C Diego Cartaya
10. LHP Maddux Bruns
Glaser did a nice chat on BA’s site. It’s paywall, so here are just a few highlights:
QUestion:
Between Frasso, Knack and River Ryan, who has the best chance to remain a starter in the big leagues?
Kyle Glaser
This is the million dollar question. Knack is the one who has proven he’s durable enough to start and has the most feel for pitching of the group, so you might have to defer to him. At the same time, I can see a scenario where any of the three end up being the right answer to this question. Pose this question to Dodgers officials, and you’ll get a different answer from everyone you ask.
Question
What injury did Payton Martin suffer this summer? I couldn’t find anything written up about it. Are there internal team concerns about his smallish frame?
Kyle Glaser
Martin is healthy, he just got shut down due to his age and the Dodgers being cautious with his workload. There aren’t any concerns about Martin’s frame. He’s a good athlete who has lots of room to fill out. As long as he fills out and gets stronger, which he has the frame to do, he’ll be fine.
Question:
Are the Dodgers still the industry leader when it comes to identifying + developing prospects? Do you feel like other orgs have closed the gap if so?
Kyle Glaser
They Dodgers are still the class of MLB when it comes to scouting and player development. Other organizations may be close in pitching or hitting individually, but no other team does both simultaneously as well as the Dodgers do.
Also had good things on:
Eduardo Quintero, Elkins and Wrobleski
More questions and Kyle Glazer responses in Baseball America.
Question: What ever happened to Kody Hoese? Can we declare him a bust?
Glaser response: Hoese’s lack of bat speed caught up with him. He was never a great athlete and everything just slowed down a tick as he got older. Even the Dodgers acknowledge it was a busted pick. It happens.
Question: Do you see a consistent role for Deluca on the Dodgers in 2024?
Glaser response: Yes, likely as a platoon outfielder who mashes lefties.
Question: Am I wrong in assuming that due to their ages, guys like Busch, Deluca and many of the pitchers (Frasso, Knack, Ryan, Hurt) are starting to lose trade value?
Glaser response: There is some degree of truth there in that model-driven teams are going to ding them because of their ages. Scouts still like these players and want them in their orgs. A team that trusts its scouts is going to value these guys as they should be.
Question: Two lower level prospects, Rayne Doncon and Jeral Perez; do they project to hit enough to reach MLB ?
Glaser response: Doncon is a no. He can crush a fastball but all you have to do is throw him three breaking balls in the dirt and he’ll swing and miss over all three of them. Perez is a maybe, but he’s so far away.
Question: Is (shortstop) Vargas and (outfielder?) DePaula the real deal offensively (all stars?) and can they become 45-50 rated defensive players in the big leagues?
Glaser response: De Paula certainly has all the tools to be the real deal offensively. The odds of him becoming a 45-grade right fielder are very, very, very slim. He’s really bad out there right now. Vargas is really promising, but we’re talking about teenagers in the DSL. He has enormous potential but it’s way to early to declare him a future All-Star.
Question: What’s the confidence level that Rushing can stick at C?
Glaser response: Decently confident. Rushing has the makeup, physicality and toughness to stay behind the plate and he’s improving as a receiver. It’s more going to come down to him supplanting Will Smith, which he won’t. That’s why he’s listed at first base in the future lineup. But in a vacuum, he has a decent chance to stick at catcher.
Question: Do you think Maddux Bruns will be able to control his stuff enough to stick in a big league rotation one day?
Glaser response: I think the odds are very slim, but to Bruns’ credit, he took steps forward last year. If he continues to progress, there is an outside chance he throws enough strikes in a Michael Kopech kind of way, where it’s not pretty but he is starting in the majors.
Question: Kendall George was a surprise supplemental first rounder but had a strong debut. Will he land in the teens or does he need to show some more pop?
Glaser response: George landed in the teens. He had a really promising pro debut. Power isn’t his game but it doesn’t need to be. He can be a contact/speed center fielder, which is plenty valuable
I said the same thing about Bruns in my upcoming post.
I very much like what Glaser said about Kendall George. Do not try to put lift and power in his swing. Let him make it or not based on the talents he was drafted with.