I came across a Twitter post that had me saying to myself, this is why players want Scott Boras as their agent. Cody Bellinger is looking for $200MM for his next deal. There are reportedly 4 teams that will be in hot pursuit (hotter than the other teams): NYY, Giants, Padres, and Cubs. Of course that number was floated by Boras. Might as well get used to the starting point before the bidding begins. And of course I recognize and acknowledge that what he will be asking for will not necessarily be what he signs for, but how many big deals has he missed on? I can think of three: Mike Moustakas, 2018 JDM, and Carlos Correa. Moustakas was oversold, but like Eric Hosmer he signed for a lot more than what most thought he would get. Correa’s medicals stopped him from cashing in big time. And teams find it hard to pay DH’s $150MM-$175MM which is what Boras was shopping JDM for.
This winter he will get maximum contracts for Blake Snell, Matt Chapman, Jordan Montgomery, James Paxton, and Josh Bell. Do not look for the Dodgers to make a serious run at any of them. And the Dodgers do not have a prayer of extending Ryan Pepiot. If Boras was Spencer Strider’s agent, he would not have been extended. Nor would any of those other eight extensions Alex Anthopoulos negotiated. Atlanta does not have one Scott Boras agent. I would not be surprised if that was a criterion that Braves management looks at.
The Dodgers had their franchise SS in Corey Seager, who will be getting serious consideration as the AL MVP. Unfortunately, Scott Boras simply used the Dodgers to jack up the contract amount for Seager to sign with Texas. The Dodgers have a team first criterion, and in my opinion, Scott Boras clients are not team first players. They are not selfish. They recognize that MLB is a business, and they have hired the best negotiator for themselves. But it does make it hard to build a team around a Scott Boras client.
I know of one exception with a Boras client being more team focused than the individual: Steven Strasburg. He told Boras to get him signed with Washington, no matter what. He did not want to play for any other team. Contrast with Juan Soto. Scott Boras turned down a 15 year $440MM deal for his client. Max Scherzer would not talk extension. After an apparent growing relationship between Boras and the Nationals, once Steven Strasburg announced his retirement, the Nats do not have a single Boras client.
Going through the agency database, it is remarkable the number of elite young players in his client rolodex who will be hitting FA in a few years.
After this year’s crop, he has Corbin Burnes, Alex Bregman, José Altuve, and Spencer Turnbull ready for 2025.
Two or more years:
- Dylan Cease (2026)
- Zac Gallen (2026)
- Brendan Rodgers (2026)
- José Urquidy (2026)
- Alec Bohm (2027)
- Jonathan India (2027)
- Jesús Luzardo (2027)
- Tarik Skubal (2027)
- MacKenzie Gore (2028)
- Matt Manning (2028)
- Bryson Stott (2028)
- Braxton Garrett (2029)
- Gunnar Henderson (2029)
- Josh Jung (2029)
- Shea Langeliers (2029)
- Royce Lewis (2029)
- MJ Melendez (2029)
- Ryan Pepiot (2029)
- Spencer Torkelson (2029)
That is an impressive list of young clients.
Players hitting FA in 2028 are not even arbitration eligible until 2025. Thus $$$ will not be a factor for low revenue producing teams, making the necessity to trade these players non-existent…except of course for a monster overpay. I am certain that AF was not going to give CWS a bevy of top rated prospects for a player they will lose in 2.5 years.
Back to the question. Will Belli get $200MM? I would not count Boras out for getting him that contract. NYY just might make Belli a very happy CF in pinstripes.
09-05-2023 – MiLB Game Summary Reports
Sugar Land Space Cowboys (Houston) 6 – OKC Dodgers 0
Mike Montgomery and Tanner Dodson each allowed 3 runs: Montgomery in 4.0 IP and Dodson in 1.0 IP. John Rooney continued his surge over the last 10 games. He pitched a scoreless 2.0 innings with 2 hits. In 8 of his last 10 games, Rooney has not allowed a run. Bryan Hudson pitched a scoreless 8th inning.
OKC had 4 hits including 2 doubles: Jonny Deluca and Justin Yurchak. Yurchak had a 2 hit game.
JD Martinez was making his first rehab game and went 0-4.
Box Score
Springfield Cardinals 9 – Tulsa Drillers 1
Kendall Williams had a quality start. He allowed 3 runs in 6.0 IP. Ben Harris and Jack Little were hit hard and allowed 6 runs in their 2.0 IP.
Tulsa had 6 hits.
Key Offensive Performances:
- Austin Gauthier – 2-4, 1 run, triple (4)
- Imanol Vargas – 2-4
Box Score
Great Lakes Loons 2 – West Michigan Whitecaps (Detroit) 1
21 year old RHP (20 baseball age) Peter Heubeck had his best game since early July. In 5.0 IP he allowed 1 run on 3 hits. A single, a fielders choice, and a run scoring single in the 1st. He allowed only a single over the next 4.0 IP. He did not allow a BB and registered 4 K.
Jared Karros piggybacked off Heubeck and completed 4.0 scoreless IP on 1 hit. No BB and 2 K.
The opposing pitcher was Detroit’s 1st draft pick (#3 overall) in 2021. Like Heubeck, Jackson Jobe is 21 with a baseball age of 20. Jobe is #55 in MLB Pipeline’s Top 100. He allowed 2 solo HRs for the Loons scores. Dalton Rushing hit his 14th and Damon Keith hit his 11th.
The Loons had 4 hits with no Loon having more than 1.
Box Score
Rancho Cucamonga Quakes 11 – Visalia Rawhide (DBacks) 2
20 year old RHP Christian Romero and 3 other pitchers combined for a 3-hit shutout. Romero went the first 5.0 scoreless innings, allowing a single and double. He did not surrender a walk and registered 6 K.
Jonathan Edwards, Garrett McDaniels, and Madison Jeffrey followed. Combined they allowed 1 hit, 4 BB, 1 HBP, and 7 K.
RC had 11 hits including 3 HRs. They scored 1 in the first and then put up 4 consecutive crooked numbers in the 3rd-6th inning to score 11 runs. The biggest bomb was a grand slam by Jake Gelof. That was his 2nd HR. Gelof also hit his 7th double.
Key Offensive Performances:
- Kendall George – 2-4, 1 BB, 1 run, 2 RBI
- Thayron Liranzo – 1-2, 2 BB, 4 runs, 2 RBI, HR (23)
- Jake Gelof – 3-5, 1 run, 5 RBI, HR (2)
- Joe Vetrano – 2-5, 1 run, 2 RBI, HR (2)
- Luis Rodriguez – 2-4, 1 run
Box Score
Whether he is one or not, I don’t think 200 million will be that much of a stretch. Given his age and the way he has rebounded this season, my choice for comeback player of the year. I think he will sign with the Yankees. Going back to his dad’s team. RF fence in NY is a nice target for a pull hitter like Bellinger.
Kersh still having some issues with his shoulder.
There’s something special happening on offense in Rancho.
“Kershaw is reduced. The Dodgers are reluctant to use Ryan Yarbrough in anything other than a swingman role. Ryan Pepiot, Gavin Stone, Emmet Sheehan and even potentially Michael Grove can fit into the mix, but each is a rookie, just like Miller.
The Dodgers have survived, and thrived, to this point. But the list of issues grows. Backup catcher Austin Barnes exited the game in the eighth inning Tuesday night after getting hit on the side of the head by Nick Fortes’ backswing. And Muncy may be hurt.
‘This is where we’re at’, Dave Roberts”.
Kinda sums it up.
I happy to see Cody doing well. I guess the combination of healing from all his injuries and responding to his coaches he is having a nice year. I don’t know what he will get in free agency. Where does $200M from? I would think an AAV for a particular length might be more relevant. Cody will be 28 when he signs and turns 29 in July ’24. With his injury history how long of a contract does a team commit? Are his 2023 stats going to continue? If he had had a better year in 2022 and followed it up with the year he’s having now Cody would probably be looking at 7-8, $25M a year contract. But, there is a lot of uncertainty involved with his market value.
The Dodgers won’t be involved. I could see the Yankees paying top dollar for more offense while continuing to ignore their pitching staff. So many teams with dollars to spend don’t get it. It’s pitching, pitching, and more pitching that wins championships. Look at the Mets, Yankees, Angels, Padres for example. And, it’s not just in free agency. The drafting and development of pitching is not very good.
This is where the Dodgers excel. They have a plan and this year will be the beginning of a flood of pitching prospects to fill in the future pitching staff. In two or three years there will be some highly regarded position players joining a core of Betts, Freeman, Smith (hopefully), Lux, and Outman.
But, good luck to Cody. I hope he cashes in with free agency. I’m thinking he will be a Yankee come the Winter. He could hit 50-70 HRs and become the Hall of Fame player he has the talent to be.
Carry on.
Today, I’ll say Beli won’t get over 200mil.
But, if he has a big October and proves he can do it when it matters? Then maybe
The Dodgers might find themselves in a conundrum of some sort. What happens if Austin Barnes needs to go onto the concussion IL? I do not know his status right now, but he sure looked dazed when sitting next to the trainer. Will Smith did not go onto the concussion IL right away. The only other catcher on the 40 man is Diego Cartaya. Hunter Feduccia and David Freitas would be the only two other catchers that could be added and be eligible for the playoffs. Tucker Barnhart was not signed until September 1, making him ineligible for the playoffs.
Neither Feduccia nor Freitas are on the 40 man, so a space would have to be made. Either Yency Almonte, Michael Grove, or Joe Kelly would need to be moved to the 60 day IL, or someone would have to be DFA’d.
Also, it looks like LHSP Shōta Imanaga (Yokohama DeNA BayStars) will be posted this winter. Because he is LH, he could be high on the LAD want list. It is projected he would command something similar to Kodai Senga.
https://twitter.com/Shawn_Spradling/status/1699465583895441445?s=20
The Dodgers could be players in both Imanaga and Yoshinobu Yamamoto this winter. Yamamoto is projected to be more in the $180-200MM range.
Julio Urías has officially been placed on Administrative Leave. Ryan Pepiot is with the team, and is expected to be recalled for the start tomorrow, and presumably stay in the rotation.
Roberts today:
– The Dodgers could expect Joe Kelly and Michael Grove to come off the IL during the next homestand. They’re viewing Grove as a reliever going forward.
– J.D. Martinez is expected to be activated on Friday in DC.
– Austin Barnes cleared concussion protocol. Has a contusion on the side of his head but could catch tomorrow, Dave Roberts said.
– Pepiot can start/take down bulk innings for Thursday, which would have been Urías’ start day.
To all of US who wanted Lucas Giolito at the deadline. His first start with Cleveland, he went 3.0 innings and allowed 9 runs (all earned), 7 hits, 3 BB, 3 K, 3 HR. Since he was first traded to LAA:
7 games, 35.2 IP, 8.58 ERA, 7.69 FIP, .280 BAA/.988 OPS, 37 K, 18 BB, 11 HR
It looks like STB was correct with Lance Lynn, and those of us who wanted Giolito were wrong. Although who knows. Maybe Giolito was hoping he was going to get traded to LAD and when he wasn’t he went into a funk.
The Dodgers look pathetic now. They’re back to punting games again. They’ve basically given up. They really have no chance of winning the World Series this year.
They should take a look at what the Braves are doing and take lots of notes. Better change those philosphies and place priority on starting pitching.
This is hard to watch bb
Jeff, you’ve been most kind to point out that I wanted us to get Lynn at the deadline………..and I looked very good for awhile. But in fairness, I’ve got to stand up and take my lumps now. He looks just as bad, if not worse, than he did with the Sox.
I think we can assume we’ve now reached the low point in our season. Kershaw not right. Urias gone. Lynn started out well tonight but hit a brick wall. And I’m doubting at this point that we can depend on him for the playoffs.
It’s really beginning to look more and more like we’ll have a mostly rookie rotation in the post season. And whatever the case, it seems as though our starters won’t be going much more than 4-5 innings. That will put a heavy load on the bullpen.
If they add Grove in the coming week, at least we’ll have two guys (Grove and Yarbrough) who can go multiple innings, along with Sheehan and Stone if one or both don’t wind up having to start games.
As I said yesterday, remember this is supposed to be a reset year, sit back and enjoy whatever comes. It’s probably still more than we expected.
And one more thing, although we pretty much have the division wrapped up, if we continue to play this way, it’s not altogether impossible that the Central Division winner would catch us and we wouldn’t wind up with the first round bye. Our offense is a mess right now, but that won’t last, and we just need to get back on track within the next 7-10 days.
Is Cody Bellinger a $200MM Player?
I would not sign him for that. Mainly based on the length of the contract he will be seeking. He will need 8-10 years to get $200M. Contracts over 5 years are in general a bad idea.
Dodgers strike out too much. 12 SO in 33 AB tonight. Not a recipe for success.
My feeling is that he is not a Marine. He is mentally weak.
On another note the FO has some work to do this winter