Fangraphs has just published their top 49 LAD prospects. I am an advocate of Fangraphs’ methodology, although they make mistakes just like BA, MLB, ESPN, The Athletic, and Baseball Prospectus. Their list certainly reflects how mediocre the LAD drafts have been for position players. The Dodgers have exactly two in the top 30 who were drafted by LAD: Dalton Rushing (#2) and Hunter Feduccia (#25). Only two other LAD prospects in the top 30 were drafted in the Rule 4 Amateur Draft, and both of those players arrived via trade: Trey Sweeney (#26) and Noah Miller (#27).
I am not forgetting Michael Busch who would have been in the top 5, but was traded for LHP Jackson Ferris, the LAD #17 prospect. Kendall George (#32), Jake Gelof (#34), Austin Gauthier (#39), Kyle Freeland (#42), and Dylan Campbell (#46) are the only other LAD prospect position players drafted by the Dodgers who are ranked in the top 49 by Fangraphs. And to be absolutely correct, Gauthier was not drafted, as he signed as a UDFA.
Per Fangraphs, the #1 LAD prospect is River Ryan and he came to LAD via a trade with San Diego for Matt Beaty. The next two pitchers on the list also came to LAD via trade: Kyle Hurt (#5 from Miami in the Dylan Floro trade) and Nick Frasso (#10 from Toronto in the Mitch White trade).
The highest rated pitcher that the Dodgers acquired via the draft was LHP Justin Wrobleski (#11). Justin was an 11th round pick (#342 overall) out of Oklahoma State.
Again, I would like to remind everyone as to what level Fangraphs actually believes the LAD prospects will be in MLB. This is based on what the evaluators perceived FV is at based on what they have seen to date and projections in their development growth.
The only 55 FV for the Dodgers is River Ryan. That puts Ryan as a #3/#4 SP or mid closer. Last year he was graded at 45. That was a big jump for River.
The Dodgers have five 50 FV players:
- Dalton Rushing – C (Last year FV 45)
- Diego Cartaya – C (Last year FV 55)
- Thayron Liranzo – C (Last year FV 40)
- Kyle Hurt – RHP (Last year FV 35+ — Big jump for Kyle)
- Joendry Vargas – SS (Last year no FV – too early to grade)
That is three catchers who are all considered to have FV equal to average regulars. One has to ask…Do the Dodgers truly need three catchers with this level of FV evaluation? Is Kyle Hurt a #4 starter or low closer/high setup reliever? Joendry Vargas has much more time to improve on his FV with good production in the US.
Kyle was also upgraded from a Multiple Inning Reliever to a Starter.
Next we have the bubble players. Regular or bench? For the 45+ FV players, they can move across that 50 barrier with a good year.
45+ Future Value:
- Andy Pages – OF (Last year FV 50)
- Josue De Paula – OF (Last year FV 45+)
- Emil Morales – SS (Not signed last year)
- Nick Frasso – RHP (Last year FV 40)
Andy Pages was at 50 before his injury last year. He looks like he is going to get back to that level. Josue De Paula stayed at 45+ because he does not have a defensive position. Fangraphs is pretty adamant for not naming a player to their top 100 without having some level of defense. If he can show any ability to play adequate OF, he will be a 50 or greater FV and be named to Fangraphs Top 100.
I am a little surprised to see Emil Morales this high. Joendry Vargas had not yet played and was not given a FV last year. Morales who was the LAD #1 IFA signed this year has also not yet played professionally. He is projected to play in the DSL this summer. How did he rate a FV? Don’t know, but I like the score.
The possible development growth for both Joendry Vargas and Emil Morales are exceptional. Both have been unfairly compared to Fernando Tatis Jr. at a similar stage. I say unfairly because that is a huge bar to get over. If either of them simply approach the talent of Tatis Jr., I will be overly excited. Both are SS who figure to move at some point. Vargas at 18 is 6’ 4” while Morales at 17 is 6’ 3”.
45 Future Value:
- Justin Wrobleski – LHP (Last year FV 40)
- Eduardo Quintero – OF (Last year too early to evaluate)
- Gavin Stone – RHP (Last year FV 50)
- Payton Martin – RHP (Last year FV 35+)
Quintero falls into that Joendry Vargas and Emil Morales category. He could rocket to 50+ or the bottom could fall out. Teenagers are tough to grade, especially when they have not yet played in the US.
Stone has dropped from a #4 starter to a #5 starter. Most publications have Gavin at the back end of a rotation. That does not mean that he cannot move to a mid-rotation pitcher, but for now, most publications have him as a #5.
Payton Martin has a lot of helium attached to him, and could move into the top 100 for Fangraphs next year with a solid season, which I expect.
The Dodgers have eight 40+ prospects:
- Peter Heubeck – RHP
- Oswaldo Osorio – SS
- Jackson Ferris – LHP
- Maddux Burns – LHP
- Ronan Kopp – LHP
- Reynaldo Yean – RHP
- Edgardo Henriquez – RHP
- Carlos Duran – RHP
This is where decisions as to where futures lie need to be made. Kopp and Duran have already been moved to the pen, and have real futures there. Yean was always a reliever, and well thought of. This should be a decision year for Heubeck and Bruns, both 2021 draft picks (#3 and #1 respectively) and Edgardo Henriquez. I am a little less critical of Ferris because he has not had that Dodger pitching lab exposure as of yet. Fangraphs has already moved Bruns to SIRP (single inning relief pitcher). We will see what the Dodgers think.
Too finish off the 40 FV players, the Dodgers have 15. Included in this group are 4 SP, 3 SIRP, 1 catcher, 1 1B, 2 3B, 2 SS, 1 CF, 1 RF.
They also had 12 players rated 35+. The one I am most looking forward to learning more about is 22 year old LHP, Wyatt Crowell. Crowell was a 4th round pick in last year’s draft. He is another in the long line of TJ rehab pitchers the Dodgers have tapped into. He was expected to be in the Florida State rotation last season, but was out due to the surgery. Crowell should be ready to face the competition this year, but like most of the pitchers coming off TJ surgery, I suspect they will be very cautious with him this year. At 22, I would hope that he would end the season at Great Lakes. Monitor his innings, but push the competition.
Bluto had included Fangraphs assessment of the system, but I want to reiterate what I have been saying and Fangraphs reported:
When talking about the long wait time for some of these lower level prospects, Fangraphs writes:
“That’s okay for now because the big league roster is so complete (though I stand by what I wrote in my 40-man roster deadline piece when I said they’re taking a risk standing pat at shortstop because I’m not convinced Gavin Lux can play there), and it’s not easy to come by great position player prospects when you’re almost always picking at the very end of each round, but this system lacks good hitters from the domestic draft.”
Underlying comment emphasis is mine.
I cannot conclude this post without including the following. Austin Gauthier is a BASEBALL PLAYER, and one who will not be denied.
Austin Gauthier goes grand for his first @Dodgers Cactus League roundtripper! pic.twitter.com/Zmo6ItfYOu
— MLB Pipeline (@MLBPipeline) March 2, 2024
Giants sign Matt Chapman to a 3 year $54MM deal. $20MM in 2024, $18MM in 2025, and $16MM for 2026. He can opt out after 2024 and 2025. He would have been much better off accepting QO from Toronto.
This was certainly expected. I am glad Zaidi decided on Chapman over Snell (thus far).
Gauthier the perfect replacement for Taylor at 1/16th the price in 2026.
Sweeney, Gauthier and Ramos have impressed. Pages has shown some flash too. Vargas, Swaggerty, and Rushing, not so much. Swaggerty got caught off base, and the runner from third tried to come home and was thrown out. And he has not showed much on defense. I will go out on a limb and say Vargas begins the year in AAA. MT over on his site says Lux will be traded in the next week or so. He believes he is on a short leash. Well unimpressive as his two starts at SS have been, I think that is passing judgement way too early on a guy who has handled the ball exactly twice. I just cannot see them trading Lux for everybody’s favorite trade target, Willy Adames, who would be a one-year rental, is older, and who strikes out a ton. It would also throw the balance of the offense off. As of right now, the 13 who will most likely make up the roster has 6 left-handed bats, Lux, Outman, Heyward, Ohtani, Freeman and Muncy, and 7 right-handed bats, Betts, Kike and Teoscar, Taylor, Smith, Barnes, and Rojas. Trade Lux for Adames, it is 8 and 5. Adames has more power. Lux is a better contact hitter with a lot more speed.
OKC will now be known as the Oklahoma City Baseball Club. Not the OKC Dodgers. All the other affiliates have kept their names. What there webpage now looks like.
Really nice outing by Glasnow. Sure hope he stays healthy…
Same goes for Treinen….
Gauthier is certainly turning heads. Nice opposite. field power. His stock is rising. I like the idea of Gauthier as CT3’s successor, but I don’t know how his glove compares. But just in case AF has a blockbuster in the works, Gauthier’s value is rising.
And I hate to ask, but is gritty veteran Chris Owings better than Lux? I’m trying to be optimistic, but….
Those are my quick impressions from the game
As for the Fangraphs prospect rankings:
The more I read about how promising Rushing, Cartaya and Liranzo are, the more I hope Will Smith gets extended.
Perhaps Rushing and Cartaya will be ready to move up in ’25, and Liranzo in ’26 or ’27, but maybe not.
The chances that any of these guys will be good enough to take Will’s job are slim. Pay the man.
If the Dodgers pay Will, it would be easier to trade the catching prospects…..
OK, here’s the plan. First, extend Will.
Next, send Lux, Cartaya, Vargas and Knack for 2 years of Devin Williams and one of Willy Adames.
I thought about including Gauthier instead of Miguelito, but I think Pages and Ramos have made Vargas expendable.
I need help understanding Glasnow’s curveball. I get he’s 6’12” and the breaking ball is a nice 11 to 5, but why is it so hard to hit. I’m missing something from TV. Guys swing right thru it. From TV it’s not one that I go “WOW” but he just misses bats.
I like that he likes his fastball for big 3&2 pitches. It’s a good fastball. Challenge the hitter, especially now.
His interview was great and helped me understand a little. He explained that his deuce doesn’t “pop up”. No hump in it coming out of his hand. But there’s something else I’m not seeing.
Vargas will be competing for the all time record for number of pop ups in 8 games.
Is Owings quietly make the 26 man? He or Pages. I need to start looking at the 13 position players. Off the top of my head there’s room for 1. Smith and Barnes, Freddie, Mookie, Lux and Rojas, Muncy, Hernandez, Kike, Outman, Hayward, and Ohtani. Room for one.
I’m telling ya. Brasier, Treinen, Graterol, Hudson and Phillips on the back end are all we need. I hope any rumors of bring back Kenley Jansen are just that – rumors. That ship has sailed and I personally don’t need a rerun of that 3 year drama, waiting to see if his cutter will break. Forget about it!
Any word on Graterol?
I’ll give you another reason I do not like Adames. He sucks against LHP. Has reverse splits during his career. Less power and a ton of K’s.
Well I will go out on a limb and say that Gavin Lux will not be traded in a week. That just sounds like someone is invested in Lux doing poorly and being right. But as if now, Andy Pages has moved to the 27th man. Better hitter, better power, and much much better defensive OF than Vargas. The more someone gets people to focus on Lux and Outman, the less likely they might be looking at Vargas. Vargas seems to be sliding down the organizational ladder rather than climbing it.
Pages now leads the Dodgers in HR (2) and RBI (8). And Pages hit his 2nd HR off Imanaga, so no MiLB pitcher. Pages is also playing CF. I don’t think Vargas will be playing any CF.
Gratrol finally got into a game. Typical Graterol outing. 2 ground ball outs, a walk, and a pop up. 10 pitches.
Sweeney and Hoese showed good arms.
DePaula homers as does Padlo.
Dodgers beat the Cubs 8-5, win for Yarbrough, loss to Imanaga. Wepf got the save. Up 11-3 in the 9th at Maryville. Outman, Padlo and Vargas with long balls, Pages, DePaula go yard against the Cubs.
In an alternate timeline in which he doesn’t miss most of 2023 due to injury, Pages is a starting OF on opening day this year. Heyward better produce.
Yarb going 2.1 IP makes me think he’s an option for SP5 especially if it helps with bullpen space. Stone would be left out in that case.
Two (maybe three) things I found interesting about the Fangraphs list:
Oh wait, I totally agree Fangraphs is a great resource, if anyone cares.
I would love, but do not expect, someone on the player dev side to discuss why the team has such an emphasis on developing young arms as starters.
One day, two wins, 11 and 8 runs scored. 8 given up. Five homers and a 3 run double. Not a bad day at the office. 3 of the long balls from guys not expected to make the roster, actually four. Vargas is borderline.
I haven’t seen Gowdy. Who is he?
I only have a couple of minor league hats, both belong to the Quakes, one is camo and the other is their blue-black cap. One of the cooler logo’s I have seen belongs to the Astros AA Texas League Corpus Cristy Hooks.