Blake Snell has reportedly agreed to a five-year-182-million-dollar deal. For those of us who never thought AF would deal with Boras, let alone sign one of his players to a long-term deal, this is a total surprise and goes completely against AF’s MO. So, what does this say about how LA approaches filling the other obvious holes in the lineup. For one thing it is very obvious that money is not going to be a problem. But the one big difference between Snell and Fried. Fried has a QO attached to him, so if LA signed him they lose prospect capital and 1 mil in international pool money. Burnes has no QO, but he is going to get at least a 7-year deal. Not sure AF is down with that. 
Reconstructing the bullpen has begun, it remains to be seen if they can get Treinen to come back. Kershaw will sign sometime next spring when he has some sort of timetable for him to be able to pitch again. Adding Snell gives them a left-handed ace. The six man could be Ohtani, Yamamoto, Glasnow, Snell, Miller, Knack, or Gonsolin, May, or Sheehan, who should be back at some point. Of course, they can still try and sign Sasaki. Trust AF to load up on arms after what happened this year.
The Dodgers strike first bagging one of the big three free agent pitchers. They could still try to re-sign Buehler, but I think Flaherty is off of the table. Needs are still at SS, LF, RF, and a power bat off of the bench. I think Pages, Rushing and Outman are at this point nothing better than platoon pieces. I do not trust any of them to be an everyday player. Would like to hear all opinions on this move and what LA might do going forward. 
Totally unexpected. AF had us all in the dark.
Bear started the post, so I will include what I was planning on writing in this one.
I had a post ready to go, but then the Blake Snell to LAD for 5 years and $182MM was reported, and my post became yesterday’s news. Oh well. I need to adapt.
Top LHSP prospect Jackson Ferris has been comped to Blake Snell at similar ages. MLB Pipeline wrote in his scouting report:
Now he has Blake Snell as a mentor.
Next week, right before the Winter Meetings, Blake will turn 32 (December 4). His contract will take him through his age 36 season. The crying of fans of other teams is laughable, telling everyone who wants to listen that the Dodgers are destroying MLB. Every team in MLB could have signed Ohtani last year with the deferrals. The Dodgers are reaping a huge return on their investment, and I am not just talking about baseball return. Ohtani wanted to play for LAD. He should not be allowed to sign with LAD because John Fisher (A’s), Richard Montfort (Rockies), Bob Nutting (Pirates), three of the worst owners in MLB, look for revenue sharing for themselves before spending to put a competitive team on the field? The Dodgers invest in their team and are rewarded with the great TV deal and nearly 4 million fans in attendance every year.
2 of the top 4 and 3 out of the top 20 jersey sales are Dodgers (Ohtani, Betts, Freeman).
They don’t just invest in personnel, but their analytics (nerds) department is second to none. They have elite development tools and teachers. They put together the best possible organization to win a WS championship every year.
The Dodgers draft late every year, and since the International bonus pools have been in place, the Dodgers are near the bottom in bonus $$$ for IFA every year. And yet they continue to win. It is not because of FA. Shohei Ohtani, Freddie Freeman, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, and now Blake Snell are the only FA signed by LAD. Muncy and Brasier are considered free agents, but they were really waiver wire pickups as they were released by their former teams.
These bitter jealous fans are calling for a salary cap, which will never happen. Upset fans want MLB to be as “competitive” for championships as are NFL, NBA, and NHL. Funny, but MLB is the only League that does not have a salary cap and still has the most different championship winners since 2000.
It sure appears that MLB is the most competitive.
Teams could have signed Snell this year with the deferrals. They choose not to. Is it going to pay out baseball wise? Probably not. But there could be more revenues because of continued playoff baseball and hopefully deeper playoff baseball.
Blake Snell is the top of the rotation LHSP LAD has not had since Clayton Kershaw and his glory days. Snell is a west coast guy, being born and raised in Seattle, WA. He was drafted in the first round (52nd overall) in 2011, out of high school by Andrew Friedman and Tampa Bay.
Snell pitched 5 years for Tampa Bay before he was traded to San Diego for C Blake Hunt, RHP Cole Wilcox, C Francisco Mejia and RHP Luis Patino on December 29, 2020. He was kryptonite for LAD in the 2020 World Series. And if manager Kevin Cash did not overthink/overanalyze the situation, the results for Game 6 could have been different.
Snell became a free agent after the 2023 season and signed with SFG late in 2024 Spring Training as one of the Scott Boras 4 that went very bad for $cott. Snell chose to opt out of the final year of his 2 year contract and become a free agent again for 2025. No qualifying offer, so LAD does not lose draft picks or $1MM IFA bonus $$$.
He signed with LAD for 5 years $182MM with significant deferrals. It is reported that his AAV will be in the $32MM range. That is right where he was predicted to sign for. MLBTR had him signing for 5 years and $160MM ($32MM AAV). Steve Adams was the only MLBTR writer who predicted the Dodgers.
Snell has been a pitcher near the elite level in results for most of his career. He is a 2-time CY winner and has two ERA titles, both 2018 and 2023. In 211 starts and 1,096.2 IP his career ERA is 3.19. His FIP is in the same ball park at 3.35. He averages 11.2 K/9. His one negative point is his walks at 4.1BB/9. His career ERA + is 128.
Snell is not a work horse, but he certainly holds his own. His last 4 years are 128.2 IP, 128.0 IP, 180.0 IP and 104.0 IP. That averages 135 IP. His 2024 total was down primarily due to the late and ineffective start to the season. The Dodgers are not looking for 180. They will be happy with 140-150-160 IP. He could be a natural fit for a 6-man rotation.
I have no idea what type of personality or club house guy he is. But I trust AF knows.
One other point that I am extremely pleased with is that LAD will not have to face Blake Snell for at least the next five years. He has owned the Dodgers over the course of his career. 14 games started, 68.2 IP, 2.62 ERA, 1.063 WHIP, 86 K, 31 BB, and 6 HR.
Snell now gives LAD a rotation of:
How about that playoff rotation of Yamamoto/Snell/Glasnow/Ohtani. On paper, there is not a better playoff rotation. And that is for at least the next 4 years.
Like Bluto, I whiffed on Snell. He is the first $cott Boras client AF has signed for more than 1 year. He signed for 5 years when the previous AF would have balked at anything above 3 years.
Where does AF/BG turn next? Do they add an OF or SS? Do they add another SP. The RP will come. Right now I am happy with Blake Snell.
With Snell on board that very likely takes a trade for Crochet off the board for good.
Would turn to Robert jun now. Outman, Fiduccia/Cartaya, Freeland, Knack/Wrobleski ?
Would open a few needed spots on the 40 men plus bring in a great CF with pop on a cheap contract.
Go Dodgers!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
As Blake Snell was in a hurry to sign this off-season, I think AF wanted to make sure he got an ace lefty ASAP. The White Sox seemed to want what AF didn’t want to give up, so AF said “F”-it, I’m just going to go get Snell and keep all my guys. You never know, perhaps the White Sox will come to realize they should have taken AF up on his offer and come back to him offering Crochet at AF’s price. Maybe we get 2 ace lefties this off-season, or maybe we don’t! Would that cause a wrinkle?
Great signing by AF and BG. The Dodgers will continue to acquire new talent and they are not done yet. Soon we should read about Teo signing (hopefully) and a trade or two to add to the BP (Lux for Devin Williams).
Great time to be a Dodger fan. Terrific ownership, the best developmental team in baseball, great analytics and a manager/coaching staff that knows how to build team cohesion.
Run it back!
This is why we should never be too enamored with all the rumors.
Does the Snell acquisition take Buehler off the table for the Dodgers???
Agree with Bear & Jeff 100%. Some outlets are saying the Snell signing takes Flaherty, Buehler, & Teo off the table. Baloney! I still see Teo as a significant need for a weak outfield. Rumors are that Soto has eliminated the Dodgers. No surprise there, especially with them lowballing him on years. Typical AF move when he’s fishing for someone he really doesn’t want to invest too many years in; like he did with Harper.
It’s always about projected WINS. I believe the Dodgers have their own analytics team doing just that – projecting Wins over the next 5 years for every player they are serious about.
We only have the projecting sites available by a search. I use what is printed at fangraphs. There is no way of knowing what a 32-36, year old obviously past his prime Snell will produce in the way of Wins but as I pointed out yesterday projecting that contract out I see no way he averages 4.4 WAR over that stretch, but Dodger geeks apparently do. And maybe they are just looking at the next 2-3 years, I don’t know. They believe he will help win another championship and that is all that matters.
Soto is a 6-7 WAR offensive player in his prime that will likely produce those numbers for at least another 5 years. Nobody past 26 is going to be productive for 13 years. It isn’t about that. It’s about the NOW. What can these guys do this year. And after that the NOW in algorithms may be only 3 years. Wish I knew. I don’t.
I was hoping for Snell’s signing by AF. Without the QO attached and a reasonable amount of years, Snell had to be AF’s main target in the premium starter market. But, to see him signed for five years at $36M per was shocking to me. But, he does fit the Dodger profile for a starting pitcher. That is pretty much a less than 120 innings a year, five inning outings, and frequent trips to the IL. But, he’s power LH pitcher! Happy to have him. It’s not my money. But, it makes no sense to me. Not that makes any difference.
I’ve written in the past about the decrease in innings expected from a starting pitcher and more reliance on the bullpen to get through a game. My reasoning was that you could reduce the salaries of starters because less was expected from them with most pitching 4-6 innings. Sure, you had a half dozen or so that could give you a healthy 200+ innings a year and would be paid accordingly. But, for a 5-6 inning pitcher, a $25M max salary would be expected. Well, this was, obviously, flawed thinking.
Snell has been in MLB for nine years. Two years (2018 and 2023) were Cy Young years where he pitched 180+ innings with a record of 21-5 and 14-5 respectfully. His other seven years he was a below .500 pitcher, averaging 105 innings a year, and with many trips to the IL. Two good years out of nine. An average WAR of 1.5 in the seven non CY years. How that justifies a 5 year/$181M contract for a 32 year old is interesting to say the least. But, again, not my money. The market is the market. Maybe, AF and Guggenheim are pushing the market up to put other teams in financial stress.
Anyway, welcome to LA and the Dodgers Blake Snell! Please, stay healthy.
Carry on.
The most surprising thing is how close to top of the market the Dodgers spent. Not this probably changes given deferment and how the market plays out, but I’m still surprised.
Still think there is zero chance for Crochet, Adames and Soto. Even less for a Robert Jr trade unless way under market.
but a great start
Sign Teoscar and Max Kepler to play rightfield and decide which of those three to keep as platoon outfielder I say yiu go with Rushing more pop in his bat then yiu have Pages and Outman in the minors if anyone get hurt. Kepler is a scrapper like Kiermier was but huts pretty well they also need to decide if they bring back Keke I sure like him better then Taylor and Barnes on the bench. You could have Rushing Keke Barnes Rojas Taylor as your bench and teoscar edman Kepler as the starters in the outfield oh and they have to get Adames at shortstop then Muncy at 3b Betts at 2b Freeman at 1b and Smith catcher. That’s a pretty good starting nine and ohtani as dh. And improved bench.
Some nice takes on the Blake Snell signing. I agree with Ram. There were plenty of rumors tying Snell to LAD. If the Dodgers had not signed Yamamoto, I do think they would have been a favorite to sign Snell last year. AF drafted Snell, and has always been enamored with him. They wanted him at the deadline, but there was no way SFG was going to trade him to LAD. But it was still a surprise to me that it happened.
Steve Adams, MLBTR, did predict LAD would sign Snell, and the MLBTR prediction was 5 years $160MM. With the present value of the deferred $$$, the contract is believed to fall between $160MM and $165MM. They got that one darn close.
Not as many predictions, but a lot of noise linking Snell to LAD.
I was pessimistic because Snell is a $cott Boras client, and was seeking 5 years. Come on, that is not the Dodgers. Something changed last year in the LAD operating plan.
I think this came together quickly by design. The Dodgers wanted a top of the rotation LHSP, and looking back at comments, they may have wanted this to happen early. Everything else will now come into focus because their #1 need has been satisfied.
Snell wanted to make sure there was not a repeat of last year, so he too wanted to sign early. It was a perfect match.
I do not think it is a surprise that the first two top FA off the market were a most coveted player…LHSP. Both pitchers signed for just about what MLBTR predicted.
As I said above, I agree with Badger. It is going to take a 20 fWAR to justify this contract financially. Not going to happen. Then why did they go against their SOP? I also agree with Badger that this is a now moment. The Dodgers want to win now, and they are now willing to overpay for that increased opportunity. The Dodgers seem to have learned that the further they go into the playoffs the more revenue they generate. The team retains 40% of the gate receipts for the guaranteed playoff games. The team retained about $30MM, and it would have been more if either of the NLCS or WS came back to LA. The Dodgers would have retained 100% of the gate receipts for games 6 and 7 in both series. For a team with $300MM payroll, that 10% of the total payroll, all because they went to the WS. Then add on additional parking and concessions…
That is also incentive to gain the home field advantage as 2 of the last 3 games of a 7 game series would be at the home of the team with that best record, and they would retain 100% of those receipts.
Winners beside LAD, Snell, and Boras? – Corbin Burnes, Max Fried, Jack Flaherty, and maybe Sean Manaea.
I do think something has shifted, and I’m not sure it’s entirely financial tolerance.
I think it’s indicative of something that’s been going on for quite a while but it largely unaddressed, organizational depth.
That is the rising baseline of position players and pitchers. Basically the Dodgers organization is full of above average players. And because Dodger replacements are so high-level that it’s hard for the team to improve unless it’s via a high-impact player.
Look at all the positions/pitching slots that don’t have a “superstar”: RF, LF, Catcher, or 2B/SS. To improve on those players the team needs better than a player with an OPS+ of 102 in his first year (Pages) or a career OPS+ of 124 (Smith at Catcher), or a player coming off major surgery and still reached an OPS+ of 101 (Lux).
Similarly at pitcher unless the player is better than Miller/Knack/May/Gonsolin then why would the Dodgers acquire them?
In the Pen it’s full of above average arms both in the majors or in the minors (Dreyer, Vanasco, Lao, Heubeck, Gowdy)
Blake Snell posted this before the trade was announced.
https://twitter.com/noahcamras/status/1861620274019606632
Between the extra $ for the WS win and the huge amount of extra $ they’re bringing in from Ohtani, AF and friends are dealing from a whole different deck than all the other teams.
So, let’s say the Big 6 to start next year are Ohtani (maybe a month late), Yamamoto, Snell, Glasnow, Gonsolin and one of Buehler/Sasaki/Eovaldi/Severino/Bieber/Manaea/Miller/Knack
That leaves the following starters in the minors, all of whom will be ready to start in the majors either this year or sometime in 2026: Sheehan, Stone, Wrobleski, Ferris, Frasso, Casparius and whichever of Knack/Miller doesn’t make the rotation this year or possibly both of neither makes it. They control Catman for 2 more years, Glasnow for 4 and Snell/Ohtani/YY for 5 or more. When are the young guys going to get a shot?
I think they need to package a couple of our good young pitchers along with a position player (Lux) or two and go after either a young shortstop like Abrams (buyer beware since his maturity level is lagging behind his playing skills) or a really good young outfielder who can play center field. I doubt the Red Sox would move Duran but it wouldn’t hurt to ask. They need pitching and their best prospect (top 3 in all of baseball) is a guy who can play center, Roman Anthony. So they have a replacement for Duran or maybe they’d consider trading Anthony for the right package.
After we get a shortstop or CF in trade, we have Edman cover the other position.
I’ve come to the conclusion the AF won’t be high bidder for Adames. If he is, that negates everything above but we still have to do something about all those young pitchers who can’t be kept at OKC forever.
Hmmmm, I’m starting to sound like Bradley, but with better spelling.
Sign Buehler to be our closer. 😉
Let’s go a tad deeper on this Snell signing. He received a $52MM signing bonus. How much of that came from the teams increased playoff revenues? That left $26MM per year remaining, but $13MM of that is deferred. So his cash contract for the next five years is $13MM. How is this not a good deal for LAD?
Maybe that is it for large signing bonuses for this year. But now Ohtani and Snell have $15MM combined salaries for the next five years.
Jeff, you said “Something changed last year in the LAD operating plan”.
I think the big thing is the Ohtani contract. Ohtani made a huge concession in deferring most of his money. This puts the onus on the Dodgers to honor that commitment and most likely move them out of their normal comfort zone.
I want to wish everyone a very Happy Thanksgiving. I will be leaving for California Monday morning. There probably won’t be much baseball news until after the holiday weekend. I did read a little while ago that if any evidence is found, MLB is willing to investigate the Dodgers about tampering with Sasaki. This was said by Manfred.
Okay, maybe I was the only one totally shocked by this deal. But what would really shock me is if LA dumped 700 million more on Juan Soto. Yes, he is the best bat on the market. He is just 26 and entering his prime years. He has some holes in his game, his defense being one of them. But I still think the Mets are the odds-on favorites to sign him. I see the Dodgers bringing Teo back. He really wants to be there and he is a positive force in the clubhouse.
Ive been advocating for the Dodgers to sign Snell for the last two years now, and finally they did. A+ work Friedman. Im thinking dynasty here.
For the Dodgers right now —
It’s Good To Be The King!
After reading the opposing thoughts and opinions about whether the Snell signing was somewhat predictable or something out of character for Friedman, I couldn’t help but wonder why anybody thinks they know Friedman enough to make a strong argument either way.
He has made large offers to several players who chose to take a different offer. Anthony Rendon and Bryce Harper come to mind. Friedman has probably made offers we don’t know about as well.as trade offers we don’t know about.
He has signed inexpensive players and players with histories of injury. He has sign expensive players.Yes, it’s been awhile since he has signed a Boris client but Boris has the majority of players teams want and to exclude Boris clients excludes the best free agents. Also, Boris will do what his clients want him to do.
What is it about Snell that makes him such a surprise?
Happy Thanksgiving Jeff, Bear, and all my fellow Chroniclers.
Per Heyman
The Yankees have upped their offer to Soto