I agree 100% that there are not a lot of pitchers who can go 6-7 innings in a playoff game. But to be contrarian, IMO AF looks for the best deal, and that may not always get the best player available at that time. The Dodgers could have signed Nathan Eovaldi last year. Texas paid $34MM for two years. Certainly not outlandish, and affordable. His fWAR value was almost $20MM ($19.9MM). If his 2024 fWAR is 2.0, he exceeds his contract.
When was the last time the Dodgers have signed a FA starting pitcher to a term longer than 1 year? Early on, but not lately. Instead the Dodgers did sign a reclamation project pitcher for 1 year…Noah Syndergaard ($13MM). I would have bet plenty that Eovaldi would have had a better year than Syndergaard.
Admittedly, there have not been many Aces that have been FA in the last few years, but there have been some. And I think for the majority of them, the decision not to pursue them were good choices. But there were others that worked out.
The top 3 last year, deGrom, Verlander, and Rodón were not good choices. Two were hurt most of the year, and JV earned a little more than ½ of his $43MM salary.
Chris Bassitt may not have been an Ace, but he is a top of the rotation pitcher, and he signed for 3 years $63MM. He had 200 IP last year with Toronto (averaged a tad over 6.0 IP). He had 181.2 IP the year before with NYM. There have been a few of us who wanted to see the Dodgers acquire Bassitt when he was with Oakland.
Last year I advocated for Zach Eflin who signed with Tampa Bay for 3 years and $40MM. Tyler Anderson was horrible last year, but aren’t all LAA pitchers? Would he have been better had he stayed with LAD. He will be 34 and 35 his last two years of his contract.
The year before, Kevin Gausman signed for 5 years $110MM ($22MM AAV) with Toronto, and has been outstanding. Marcus Stroman 3 years $71MM. Robbie Ray 5 years $115MM. Eduardo Rodriguez 5 years $77MM. Ray won the CY in his platform year while with Toronto, and pitched well (not great) his first year in Seattle. He had TJ and flexor tendon surgery last year. You cannot predict most injuries, and I was one who was hoping that the Dodgers would sign Ray. They didn’t, and as it turns out, good for them.
What I want to see is a change in the mindset. Get away from the 1 year reclamation projects. If there are no Aces, get the best #2, then the best #3. If it costs more and/or requires more years, so be it. AF has to look at the FA market (and trade market) differently this year. Whereas he could justify the reclamation projects in the past with his envious pitching staff, this year he needs proven top of the rotation pitchers, and then let the kids be the back of the rotation until they prove themselves.
The Dodgers have lost out on multiple pitchers via trade. The Dodgers very much wanted Luis Castillo and Pablo Lopez. They would not pay the asking price (which I have no idea what that was), and they went elsewhere. How much has the trade value of Diego Cartaya, Michael Busch, Gavin Stone, and others decreased. If the Dodgers had offered Cartaya, Busch, and Stone could they have acquired either Castillo or Lopez? They wouldn’t now because of the prospect capital tumble.
Jordan Montgomery (for 2023, 188.2 IP for 32 starts, and year before 178.1IP for 32 starts) ? Dylan Cease (for 2023, 177 IP in 33 starts, and year before 184 IP in 32 starts)? Mitch Keller (32 starts, 194 IP, average 6.0+ IP). They are out there. AF just has to be willing to spend $$$ or prospect capital, or both. Change the mindset.
Why didn’t Eduardo Rodriguez accept the trade with the Dodgers? I continue to believe that it was because AF would not give him extra dollars to waive the no trade deal. We will see how much he likes Detroit this year as he has opted out of his contract.
Negotiate in good faith with Scott Boras clients. Jordan Montgomery and Blake Snell would fit in nicely at the front of the LAD rotation.
I still believe the most likely top of the rotation FA pitcher in MLB that AF will target is Sonny Gray. Jim Bowden’s projection is 3 years $64MM. That is $21.33MM per year AAV. Not out of line. Is it out of the comfort zone for AF?
I do not pretend to know if the Dodgers value draft picks more than FA pitchers/players. I am more than positive that AF will not let the loss of draft picks stop them from signing Ohtani. But what does it do with signing Sonny Gray, Blake Snell, Aaron Nola, or Matt Chapman. Would signing Ohtani render the other FA with a QO out of bounds? More opportunities for Yamamoto, Imanaga, and Montgomery. And of course the reclamation projects.
Five pitchers that I would absolutely target for trades:
- Corbin Burnes (RHSP), Milwaukee (193.2 IP, 32 starts)
- Dylan Cease RHSP), CWS (177.0 IP, 32 starts)
- Logan Gilbert (RHSP), Seattle (190.2 IP, 32 starts)
- George Kirby (RHSP), Seattle (190.2 IP, 32 starts)
- Jesús Luzardo (LHSP), Miami (178.2, 32 starts)
A little more cautionary based on medicals, Shane Bieber (Cleveland) and Triston McKenzie (Cleveland), and Max Fried (Atlanta).
Others:
- Braxton Garrett (LHSP), Miami
- Cole Ragans (LHSP), KC
- Brady Singer (RHSP), KC
- Tarik Skubal (LHSP), Detroit
- Matt Manning (RHSP), Detroit
I am sure that there are at least a dozen more that I would never think of. But don’t try to make the perfect deal. It isn’t out there. Make a fair deal that will help the Dodgers in 2024 and not hurt them in 2025. Outside of pitching, the Dodgers do not have elite MiLB talent at the upper levels, and the pitching is a surplus that AF can pick and choose. They can certainly put a package together for pitching or position players.
One player that I mentioned last year, and one I hope that AF/BG pursues this winter. The Dodgers have been looking for a RH hitting OF who hits LH pitching. Washington Nationals OF, Lane Thomas. Against LHP in 2023, in 192 PA, .332/.375/.573/.948, 14 doubles, 1 triple, and 9 HRs. He will cost, as he has two years of control.
Back to my premise…Change the mindset. Don’t try to be perfect, just fair and good.
BTW, MLBTR has just published their annual Top 50 free agents and predictions. I will be reviewing it and commenting.
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/11/2023-24-top-50-free-agents-with-predictions.html
Great write up Jeff. I agree with you that AF needs a change of mindset and the way he has gone about constructing the roster the last few years. I am sick and tired of all the bargain bin and dumpster diving for reclamation projects shopping. Dammit, we have the money if we use it wisely.
Reading thru the MLBTR free agent predictions, I found myself wondering how accurate their predictions were from last year. I would be surprised if it was higher than 20%. I think they are guessing just as much as we are.
Not sure how we get those Seattle guys unless we unload some prospect capital. Vargas, Busch, Cartaya?
”There is also an understanding that Japanese stars often prefer not to play on Major League teams with other Japanese stars. Would the signing of Ohtani or Yamamoto prevent the pursuit of Sasaki (and other Japanese stars)? The answer is unclear.” Dylan Hernandez.
Sasaki is a 22 year old pitcher that the Dodgers are scouting, but won’t be available this winter.
And the prediction for Ohtani this morning was Dodgers, 12 years $528 million. I just can’t see it. Not without some safeguard clauses to protect the team if he doesn’t pitch again. I just read he’s worth over $200 million as a pitcher, and around $300 million as a hitter. Coming off surgery next year, at least early next year, his ability to hit like he has may be an unknown. That said, I can sure picture a lineup with Betts, Freeman, Ohtani in October.
The MLBTR FA predictions. Interesting read. We’re going to be seeing these predictions for weeks. I’ll make this prediction: Below Mendoza line accuracy on all of them.
Please no Sonny Gray. He’s a fine pitcher for a crap team that has no postseason goals. Let him go to Anaheim or one of those type franchises.
….”The top 3 last year, deGrom, Verlander, and Rodón were not good choices. Two were hurt most of the year, and JV earned a little more than ½ of his $43MM salary.” —— Need to give Friedman credit for what he didn’t do too!
I also like Gray. I will accept the honor for wanting Gray like STB did with Lynn last year.
I also like Lane Thomas. I would have to get a hell no from KC first though before I used trade chips for Thomas. His line against righties is .242.292.427.719 which makes him prone to platooning. His month by month stats were up and down as well so he is streaky.
Might Betts be the righty bat that plays decent defense at third?
I think the biggest factor that is sometimes overlooked when looking at past actions is that the Dodgers had a core at the top of the rotation with Kershaw and Urias (at least).
Thus the idea that this off-season may be an outlier makes more sense.
At least to me
Excellent articles the last two days Jeff!
it will be tough to replenish the pitching staff and sign Ohtani as most experts predict they will. I am not in favor of paying Ohtani $528 million, when he will only be a DH in 2024 and possibly in 2025. After his last TJ surgery, Ohtani only pitched two innings in the next two seasons. And even his hitting was impacted after his last TJ surgery.
It was amazing to see yesterday how little Friedman has paid for starting pitching in the last 10 years. His top external signings have been Bauer, McCarthy, Kazmir, Brett Anderson, Rich Hill, Maeda, and Syndergard. Most have been failures, except moderate successes with Maeda and Hill.
it is important to understand what a roster Friedman inherited when he became GM in 2014. On that roster were Kershaw, Greinke, Urias, Ryu, Haren, Beckett, Stripling, Jansen. Plus young stars like Seager, Bellinger, Pederson, Turner, Puig, and Kemp.
Friedman has managed to build a pitching staff around Kershaw, Urias, Ryu, and Buehler combined with castoffs and low budget signings. But the inheritance is now running dry, and either the Dodgers must develop their young pitchers or pay in the open market for pitching. At a minimum I would like to see the Dodgers sign Gray or Snell and Imanaga plus the normal pitching rehab project.
Who bunts.
From Bruce Kuntz on Twitter:
The Dodgers had 27 players in their minor league system elect free agency today. Some notables who are no longer in the org:
-RHP Tyler Cyr
-IF Yonny Hernández
-C Tucker Barnhart
-RHP Ricky Vanasco
-IF Luis Yanel Diaz
-1B/DH Imanol Vargas
-OF Yusniel Díaz
-1B Justin Yurchak
Jeff, you referred to Sasaki as a “lock down closer” above.
I don’t doubt that he’d make a great closer, but isn’t he viewed by most experts as a potential #1 starter?
From Morosi (ostensibly good for Vargas/Busch/DeLuca/Cartaya/etc.)
At the MLB GM Meetings, a trend to watch:
Team execs tell me trade conversations for position players are more serious now than at this time last year.
One reason: “Buying” clubs have more interest in players under club control than those available in free agency.
One thing about MLBTR’s predictions, they are the first to tell you that they are sheer guesses. It is a fun exercise for them. They have a contest every year where the readers get to guess. I cannot remember what the prize is. I entered it one year, and I was surprised that I got 8-10 right. I cannot remember the exact number I got right. I did not win.
Tim Dierkes, owner of MLBTR, wrote this when he was criticized for the large contract numbers:
He also told commenters who criticized the MLBTR’s team’s predictions to give their own predictions.
I have used that same approach. It is easy to criticize, but when I asked certain people what they would do BEFORE the season. Who would they target for the LAD roster, and how would they acquire them…crickets. I also find it incredulous when the response is that the Dodgers should have no budget. If it takes a $400MM budget, so be it. It’s not my $$$. I know there are those who believe AF should sign Ohtani, Yamamoto, Snell, Montgomery, and Chapman. And there is no excuse for not signing them. If they say no, just offer them more. There is no such thing as a player who wants to play on the East Coast vs. the West Coast. Just give them more $$$.
That seems to be the attitude of many of the commenters. I look at the exercise as it was intended. A fun exercise where they know they are going to be wrong an extraordinary percentage.
Jerry DiPoto said that the Mariners are looking to add contact hitters this year. That was one of the reasons they cut Hernandez loose. Teams are beginning to look for those kinds of bats. LA has enough guys that strike out too much, Muncy and Taylor. That is why I think signing Chapman is a bad move. He strikes out more than Muncy. Another reason why the Dodgers drafted Kendall George.
A few interesting names mentioned as underrated Free Agents in the Athletic. Among them:
Luis Severino, Gary Sanchez, Reynaldo Lopez, Frankie Montas. None linked to the Dodgers, but… if there’s room on the 40?
New White Sox GM, Chris Getz say “there are no untouchables”.
That tells me Dylan Cease will be traded.
And Louis Robert Jr. might be traded if someone presents him with a deal he can’t resist.
Are we interested in either of these guys?
Neither would come cheap.
Just for fun, I went to the Trade Simulator:
Dodgers get Robert Jr.
White Sox get Busch, Pages, Sheehan, Cartaya, Vivas.
Like I said, he wouldn’t come cheap.
I misread the report that indicated that Yoshinobu Yamamoto has been posted. The report was that the Oryx Buffalos have agreed to post Yamamoto, but the formal posting has not yet happened. Once he, and any other Asian player being posted, teams have 45 days to consummate a deal.