I struggled a little as to how I should approach this topic. I could simply do what a lot of writers and bloggers are doing and repeat what the Dodgers needs are and who they are linked to. Instead I thought I would say what I think will happen. More of an editorial. I am basing what I believe will happen on what AF has done in the past. He may prove to be a baseball executive with a change in his offseason strategy, and as a Dodgers fan, I will be pleased. I am hoping that he looks at 2024 as a season they could win it all with the right player personnel…hint, hint, elite pitching.
Here goes.
The Dodgers are about to embark on what has been described as an aggressive approach to the Winter Meeting. I am on the I won’t believe it until I see it train. We have been here before. I cannot remember the last Winter Meeting where the Dodgers were aggressive. This year it is a day shorter than most years. In the past, the Meetings ended on Thursday with the Rule 5 Draft. This year the Rule 5 draft will again end the Meetings, but it will be on Wednesday.
One writer wrote what I consider a fair reading as to where the Dodgers stand going into the Winter Meetings:
The Los Angeles Dodgers have some fundamental questions they are going to have to answer this offseason. Coming off another strong regular season only to get bounced early from the playoffs, LA looked surprisingly vulnerable as a team despite the fact that they had two viable MVP candidates in Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman on their roster.
The rotation is a mess, the bullpen could use some more depth, and the lineup outside of Mookie and Freddie is a mix of unproven young guys and guys that have been around for a while that are getting older and have some warts to their games.
2024 is absolutely going to be a transitional year for the Dodgers as a result. If the wrong moves are made, LA could find that their run of dominance in the NL West coming to an end with the Diamondbacks already nipping at their heels and the Giants looking to make a splash this offseason.
Before the end of the meetings, I do expect Shohei Ohtani to be a LAD. IMO, the owners are behind this transaction. $500MM-$600MM will be recouped very quickly so that the owners will make out very well. The baseball team? Now that is another question.
The Dodgers scored 900 runs during the season and lost 3 games to none to Arizona, being outscored 19-6. I agree that Ohtani will be fun to watch in the lineup, but he will do nothing to help the rotation. Exactly how many more runs will Ohtani provide over what JDM provided last year?
Currently the rotation is more reminiscent of a bottom half team. In the NL West, the D-backs, Padres, and Giants have better top of the rotation pitchers than do the Dodgers. If you read all the Dodger news sites, they are expected to be in on Blake Snell, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Jordan Montgomery, and Shōta Imanaga. They are also linked to Lucas Giolito and now Seth Lugo. I think those are more realistic options for AF and BG.
Per Jack Harris, LA Times:
“Lucas Giolito has emerged as one of the Dodgers’ targets, according to people with knowledge of the situation unauthorized to speak publicly. Jack Flaherty and Seth Lugo have also been linked with the team of late, while other veterans such as Michael Wacha and Marcus Stroman could also bolster the club’s pitching depth.”
Looks like someone a lot more connected than me is writing about what I have been saying all along. The Dodgers will add two to three pitchers. They just will not be elite.
AF and BG have both said they are confident that the current team is a WS contender as it is. But they acknowledge that they need at least two additional starters. They have never said two top of the rotation starters. It has been the Dodger bloggers and writers who have added that little caveat.
The Dodgers have bid on star payers and star pitchers, and outside of Trevor Bauer, have been unsuccessful. Oh they did sign Scott Kazmir and Brandon McCarthy.
I see no way AF/BG will agree to what Yoshinobu Yamamoto wants in terms of $$$ and years. Especially the years. It is so far out of their comfort zone that it is not conceivable. IMO this has Steve Cohen will do whatever it takes to sign Yamamoto. NYY, Chicago Cubs, Boston, and SFG are all planning on negotiating with Imanaga. The next time AF/BG is successful outbidding those teams for elite players/pitchers will be the first. Okay, second. Trevor Bauer. But Bauer was buying exactly what the Dodgers were selling; low number of years and high AAV. That is not what players are looking for free agency anymore.
There are current reports that Imanaga’s market is quickly approaching nine figures.
Montgomery and Snell are Boras clients. AF/BG are going to need to do something they have not yet done…negotiate in good faith with Boras. I am skeptical that they will succeed. Montgomery could end up back in St. Louis or Texas. I have always believed he was Texas’ to lose, and Texas has zero problems negotiating with Boras.
The rumor going around lately is that Seattle will sign Snell and then look to trade one of Bryan Woo, Bryce Miller, or Emerson Hancock for a ML bat. I think some fans just make this s*** up and watch it take off. Regardless, I do not see any way that Snell will end up a Dodger. Too much of his success comes against LAD for him to give that up. He is more likely to end up in SF.
That leaves the trade route. Corbin Burnes, Dylan Cease, Tyler Glasnow, and now Shane Bieber. I was an advocate for Bieber 2 years ago. Not so much now. But the Dodgers believe they can fix anyone.
There are questions as to whether Bieber will be traded at all. Per The Athletic…”So, is there much of a point to moving Bieber for, say, a couple of midlevel, non-top-100 prospects? What does that accomplish, other than reducing an already-microscopic payroll? And would that return outweigh the draft-pick compensation the team would net if Bieber walks after the 2024 season?”
There are multiple teams that will be involved in trade talks for those pitchers, and many (if not most of the low revenue/payroll teams) are not considerations for the top FA pitchers. Cincinnati and Baltimore are two teams that are very much involved with the top trade targets, and they have prospects galore to spend. Many MLB journalists are picking Baltimore to come away with Dylan Cease.
Cubs…Atlanta…Arizona…Every playoff contender from 2023 that is looking for that last edge to get them over the top will be in on the trades for those specific pitchers. Will the Dodgers be willing to overpay for a rental ??? They have been reluctant to do so in the past.
My choice would be Corbin Burnes. However per Jon Heyman, “the trade market for starting pitchers — which includes Tyler Glasnow, Dylan Cease, Shane Bieber and Corbin Burnes — is strong. However rival teams see Burnes as someone likely to remain in Milwaukee, which has a chance to win. “
Just like the AL Central (Cleveland), the NL Central is winnable by as many as 4 teams, and Milwaukee at has a much better chance with Burnes. They can re-assess at the trade deadline. Same with Cleveland and Bieber.
None of the others, including Dylan Cease move the needle for me as much as Burnes. Glasnow would be my #2 choice. While he represents a huge injury risk, he has a very high ceiling. And that could be the difference in October.
The biggest question for me is not whether the Dodgers are willing to spend $500-$600MM on Ohtani, but what are they willing to do after, IF they are successful in signing Ohtani.
I am prepared to mosey on up to a heaping plate of crow if the Dodgers are aggressive and do acquire top pitching. But if they do not, I do not expect much else to change from 2023. They will score runs, but for 2024 they may have to score 10 runs a night to be successful.
Cleveland’s current rotation – Shane Bieber, Triston McKenzie, Tanner Bibee, Gavin Williams, and Logan Allen.
LAD current rotation – Walker Buehler, Bobby Miller, Ryan Pepiot, Emmet Sheehan, Ryan Yarbrough.
The last three for Cleveland were rookies last year who had better results than did Dodgers rookie Bobby Miller. The Dodgers do not have the rotation that Cleveland has. But the Dodgers have enough for their offense to beat up on most teams. Will it be enough to win in October?
What do you think WILL happen. Not what you want. But if you want to comment as to what you want, go ahead. The comments are for you.
Gavin Stone: #4 starter and ROY
I fully expect the Dodgers to wind up with an elite starter, whether or not we get Ohtani.
Yes, I expect AF to change his MO.
I wouldn’t be surprised to see us sign Yamamoto even after signing Shohei but if he chooses to go elsewhere, Andrew will come up with a starter who will begin the season as our #1, even if that means finding a trade for a pitcher nobody is even talking about as a potential trade candidate.
There, I said it.
I have no clue. At all.
I think the FO has earned my trust though. Unlike the BoSox’
I think we will be surprised by AF’s off season moves as he indeed goes BIG and signs Ohtani and acquires at least one big time SP (Yammamoto, Burnes, Cease, Glasnow) either by trade or FA and also signs or trades for at least one tier two SP (Giolito, Flaherty, Wacha, Lugo, Bieber, Stroman etc).
With the signing of Joe Kelly and the return to good health of Trienen and Freyersein the BP is set and we’ll see youth inserted this year for the occasional injury or phantom IL (Knack, Hurt, Grove, Frasso etc).
For trades I suspect he uses some, but not all with the likes Busch, Vargas, Stone, Cartaya, Knack used as trade pieces.
One thing is certain, before anyone actually signs a contract a trade must happen to make room on the 40 man roster. An announcement on an agreement might happen first but the trading must happen before the actual signing takes place. I know this is obvious to most of us.
Jeopardy Theme Song!
Dodgers need pitching more than they need Ohtani. Yamamoto and Imanaga over Ohtani a big yes but not likely to happen. Maybe one of the two to go along with Burnes, and Glasnow. Lets see what happens.
I find it interesting how most people understand/accept that signing Ohtani to a large contract would pay for itself in international sponsorships,etc. That Ohtani’s hypothetical $50 mil would be recouped pretty quickly from new revenue streams.
Then, those same people wonder ‘wait, will we have any more money to spend to improve the baseball team?” Ummm, if Ohtani’s money gets paid by international sponsorships and new revenue streams, then yes, we have more money!
No other player on the market requires blending the business decisions AND the financial decisions/potential revenue, like Shohei Ohtani, unless we’re signing Lebron James, Christiano Ronaldo, or Taylor Swift.
If Ohtani is a business AND baseball decision, then the business part takes care of it self, AND the baseball part has more funds to play with!
Hence, I foresee Ohtani signing this week, and that will NOT preclude a Corbin Burnes trade or even another top of the rotation starter, PLUS signing a back end reclamation project (because we just have to do it) in Giolito, Flaherty, etc.
I look for a really fun week for all of us. Can’t wait! Now, as a Bears fan on this Sunday, it’s time to continue rooting for the Carolina Panthers to lose so we can get that top pick and draft Caleb Williams.
Stealing this from Twitter:
Three Winter Meetings Expectations
1. Trade market turns up: the lack of top-tier position players on the FA market has created increased demand in the trade market.
2. A signing or trade leaves that the industry speechless.
3. The return of the Mystery Team! 🕶👿👥
Hopefully AF/BG will make a big splash but I sometimes wonder if they juggle too many balls at one time.
Living in WA, I would be happy to attend Mariners games with Pederson and Ohtani joining Rodriguez in their lineup.
Story on MLBTR this morning says Ohtani will probably not announce where he is going for at least another week or so. This complicates things for some of the other free agents since many are waiting to see what Shohei does. The Dodgers roster is currently at 39 players. Heyward is not on the official roster yet and neither is Kelly. The roster has 23 pitchers, 4 catchers, 4 outfielders and 8 infielders. Some will have to be moved before any signings take place. Trades and or DFA moves seem inevitable.
Now, if the Dodgers do sign Ohtani, I doubt very seriously that they sign one of the other free agents who received a QO. Which means Snell, Hader, Bellinger et all. The reason is simple. LA signs Ohtani or any of the other QO recipients, they lose 2 draft picks in June and 1 million bucks in international pool money. If they sign a second player with a QO, they lose 4 draft picks and the money. The picks would be 2, 3, 5, 6. And we all know how AF likes his picks.
I am in Jeff’s camp at this point. I will believe it when I see it.
AF and Gomes have to take an approach that may not be in their comfort zone. Pitching is the most important and expensive commodity in baseball. This is the first time they have gone into the offseason with such a weak starting staff. Either a large and long contract in free agency or a trade involving a few prospects is going to be necessary to re-establish a dominant staff.
Do what it takes to trade for a top end starter. As I have mentioned many times the Dodgers have more than enough prospects to do so. It would be good for the Dodgers and the prospects in that they will have a chance to pitch in MLB.
Is everybody ready?
The start of the Winter Meetings is here. One of my favorite 4-day periods of each year.
The meetings are the only event where I will force myself to watch the eternally obnoxious Greg Amsinger on MLB tv. Otherwise, I shut off the tube every time he appears. Coverage starts today at 4:00 PM Pacific time.
Waiting for the first news to come out of the meetings is like the first uphill on a great roller coaster. You’re kind of holding your breath and when you get to the top of that first hill it’s either total exhilaration (good trade/signing), absolute fear (bad trade/signing) or the realization that this really isn’t as good a ride as you’d anticipated (lack of anything interesting from your team).
Here’s hoping for total exhilaration!
Jon Heyman reports multiple bids “well north” of $500MM and wouldn’t be surprised if it doesn’t get to $600MM. Insane if that is the case. But, Heyman has issues with what’s really happening. He likes to see his name in print. If the Dodgers pay the $600MM number I would be shocked considering AF’s past history in free agency. Come Farhan, step up to the plate! Lol.
I am not sure where Heyman is hearing this since these meetings are supposed to be held in secret. Heyman may not always be right. but he doesn’t just make s*** up either.
Just to keep the AAV down to $50MM that would be a 12 year deal. If the owners did not want Ohtani as an investment, AF would have backed off by now. IMO, the Dodgers will be in it until the end. It could also be some level of gamesmanship from the other teams in the negotiations trying to drive up the cost knowing how much the LAD owners want Ohtani, and thus limiting the amount they can use for their actual needs.
If Ohtani does in fact hold off with an announcement for a week or two, the Dodgers could once again find the best FA and trades to be gone by the time Ohtani agrees. But that will not dissuade them from the Lucas Giolito, Michael Wacha, Seth Lugo, Jack Flaherty signings.
nothing
If we turn our ears from idle fan speculation to what I hope is informed speculation:
Morosi:
Dylan Cease trade market is robust as the winter meetings begin in Nashville.
Dodgers, Braves, and Orioles are all involved, sources say, and other teams also remain engaged with the White Sox.
The Mariners and Rays are trade partners to watch in Nashville this week.
They have spoken about Isaac Paredes, as I reported earlier today.
Randy Arozarena is available, and it is believed his name has come up in different scenarios, as well.
Heyman:
Tons of trade interest in Tyler Glasnow. Not surprising.
Brewers are moving closer to a deal with Wade Miley. Would be 1 year.
Alek Manoah’s name has come up in Juan Soto trade talks with the Padres. Could be a good change of scenery guy.
Nope
For those who have been discussing potential third baseman, I’d like to throw another name into the hopper.
Mariners and Rays have discussed Isaac Paredes, who plays third, second and first but last year mostly third for the Rays. .250/.352/.488/.840 last year with 32 homers and 98 RBI. He’s a better fielder than Max and bats right handed. Next year will be his age 26 season and he has 4 years until free agency.
How about Isaac, Fred? Jeff D? Anyone?
Jim Leland elected to the Hall of Fame, only one of 8 candidates to make the cut. Lou Pinella missed by one vote. Joe West one of five candidates who got less than 5 votes. 12 needed for election. The players side will be announced in January. USC to play Louisville in the Holiday Bowl in San Diego. Will Smith will love that.
First trade of the meetings went down a little while ago. The Atlanta Braves get Jarred Kelenic, Evan White, and Marco Gonzales from the Mariners for Jackson Kowar, Cole Phillips and cash. Braves are taking on 19.25 million in the salaries of Gonzales and White. Dodgers deal with Joe Kelly is for 8 million.
Getting my truck serviced this morning, heading for Los Angeles on Thursday.
The Dodgers can build a very good team without spending $600 million on Ohtani or $200 million on Yamamoto, Snell or Montgomery.
Homegrown players who have sacrificed for the Dodgers like Seager, Pederson, Bellinger, Ryu, and Turner are let go instead of extending and without getting any trade value. And now they are considering paying Ohtani a guaranteed $600 million, when they will only guarantee Walker Buehler $8 million for 2024 before he becomes a free agent. Buehler is the same age as Ohtani and has been a better pitcher in the MLB. Buehler has a career record of 46-16 and era of 3.02. Plus he has been great in the postseason with a 2.94 era and Dodgers are 10-6 in his starts. Depending on his medicals, it would be wise to extend Buehler now to give him some insurance while retaining him in a cost effective manner. He has gone to battle for the Dodgers and helped them win divisions, pennants and a World Series title. Reward your own guys first.
Some more thoughts on the Ohtani situation. It’s been written that Ohtani wants to win and money isn’t important to him. That, obviously, that’s not the case or he would have signed with the Dodgers already.
For what amount? Let’s say it’s the $600MM figure that’s currently being thrown around. The caveat? It’s for 15 years with approx $150MM deferred for years 16-30. That should give the Dodgers baseball’s best player at a CBT number that would allow them some them additional financial flexibility to further improve the team. This would give Ohtani his desire to play for a championship and generational wealth yearly through age 60. Something like this would be something I could go for. Not that that makes any difference. Lol.
Carry on.
Atlanta now being included in Ohtani rumors. If he wants to win and hit in a home run park……
I have for a long time wanted Chris Archer to be a Dodger. Well, finally it has happened.
The Dodgers have hired Chris Archer as a special assistant in their baseball operations department, as the righty himself tells Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. It doesn’t seem as though he has a clearly defined role as of yet, telling Mackey that he’s sampling a few different things.
This is an interesting list :
https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/home-runs?sort=no_doubters&sortDir=desc
Atlanta’s stadium is middle of the pack as far as home run metrics. So is Dodger Stadium. Stadiums that aren’t? Yankee Stadium and Angel Stadium.
I still believe Friedman will do what is necessary to keep the Dodgers at the top of the list in wins and entertainment value. Though for opposite reasons, along with Jeff, I too am prepared to eat crow if Friedman gets shut out this off season.
JJ Piccolo (KC GM) is looking for SP. They are not shopping in the same arena as are the Dodgers, Giants, NYY, NYM…But he did say, Bobby Witt king Jr. is the face of the franchise and is not going anywhere. They know he is special but they intend to hold onto him as long as they can. They are working on getting an extension. Piccolo says they know what is important to Witt, and they are moving forward
Mike Hazen says he wanted Eugenio Suarez for his glove as much as his bat. They also like his leadership. Hazen has said that he is looking at SP and a veteran bat. He brought up that Arizona started four 23 year old players in October. The name mentioned and keeps getting mentioned is JD Martinez.
Yoshinobu Yamamoto will be traveling to the US this week for face to face meetings. I assume there will be coast to coast travels. Unless he gets overwhelmed, I would not expect Yamamoto to sign until closer to Christmas.
John Mozeliak says they will be trading one of their OF this Winter. He said they are looking for relievers. Tyler O’Neill is getting a lot of attention. He can’t seem to stay healthy, but if he can replicate 2021 he is going to help someone. They are not trading Lars Nootbaar or Jordan Walker. That leaves Dylan Carlson, Alec Burleson, and Tyler O’Neill.
Jung Hoo Lee will be posted today. He is in play for a lot of teams.
Dodgers have to hope that San Diego is not successful in trading Juan Soto. If they are, they look to be all in on Corbin Burnes. We know A.J. Preller will not be outspent prospect wise for a player he wants. Merrill, Snelling, and Lesko are all potentially available. 17 year old catcher Ethan Salas is probably the only untouchable for Preller.
Whit Merrifield has no problem driving a runner in from 3rd with less than 2 outs with an out. He said that is his job to drive in the run. He indicated that he is not the guy who has a runner on 3rd and goes 0-2 because they did not like the pitch. He does not like that approach, and does not appreciate players like that. He prefers 2B, but understands that versatility is part of his game. He said he likes to hit with RISP and says he has done well in that role. I checked…WRISP he slashed .295/.351/.459/.810 with 375 RBI in 860 AB. WRISP and 2 out – .280/.365/.440/.804. If you prefer slug and OPS, Merrifield is not your guy. If you prefer good bat to ball skills, and the guy who is willing to give himself up, Merrifield could be your guy. I have always loved Merrifield’s game. The Dodgers could do much worse than to look at Whit Merrifield. I doubt they look at him with CT3 and Miggy Ro already on the roster. Whit is a good throwback baseball player.
For those following at home, the trade simulator APPROVES the Braves/Mariners trade!
Gonzalez, Kelenic, White and Cash comes to about 3
Cole Phillips is 3.2 (other Mariner acquisitions are nil)
Doc just stated on MLB tv that Mookie Betts will be his every day second baseman.
Hooooorah!!!!!
Brewers signed LHSP Wade Miley to a 1 year $7MM contract, with a $12MM club option with a $1.5MM buyout, with incentives. They also signed former RHP Joe Ross who sat out most of 2023 receiving from his 2nd TJ surgery. 1st round draft pick by San Diego in 2011. Long time member of the Nationals. Was part of that huge 3 team trade with San Diego, Washington, and Tampa Bay that also included Trea Turner also going from San Diego to Washington.
It sure looks like Milwaukee is at least going to start the season trying to see how they compete in the vert winnable NL Central.
Apparently the Braves are looking to flip Marco Gonzalez. I would imagine he would be included in the package looking for a front line starter. I wonder how CWS feels about Marco.
The reports are still out there that the Dodgers could be looking to upgrade at SS. The Dodgers had their shot at a long time SS with Seager and Turner and said no. Lux was given the job. I do not see how you tell Lux he is not the SS over Willy Adames or Jorge Mateo (Baltimore) or Tim Anderson (FA). You have to give Lux a season to prove himself…right?
And he has to make it as a SS as Dave Roberts has said that Mookie will be the everyday 2B. Now the Dodgers need 2 corner OF. Everywhere else is solid for the position players.
https://twitter.com/BlakeHHarris/status/1731760412579012806?s=20
For those interested in such things, courtesy of Codify:
Highest percentage of plate appearances ending in a home run, walk, or strikeout (qualified hitters in 2023):
Kyle Schwarber, 53.9%
Jack Suwinski, 51.1%
James Outman, 48.0%
Brent Rooker, 47.7%
Max Muncy, 47.3%
Shohei Ohtani, 46.4%
Erick Fedde is nearing a 2 year deal with an unknown team. I brought his name up before as someone who intrigues me. He has always had good stuff, just could not put it all together with the Nationals. He went to the KBO (NC Dinos) and flat out dominated. 180.1 IP, 2.00 ERA, 29.5% K rate and less than 5.0% BB rate. The intrigue? Merrill Kelly left as a mediocre pitcher to KBO and came back to MLB with Arizona and is now dominating MLB. He did not pitch nearly as well in his four years in the KBO as Fedde did in his one. He is expected to surpass $5MM annually. This is a low risk high reward type pitcher.