Oh shoot, the Dodgers lost another chance for a reclamation project when Rick Porcello retired.
I know many of us have looked at pitching. Maybe that is because of the Justin Verlander rumors, but as I have been saying for some time, the Dodgers are flush with depth pitching and do not seem inclined to pay the going rate for an Ace. So they will need for Gonsolin, May, Miller, Stone, and Pepiot to become plus SP for 2023 and beyond. With Urias being a client of Scott Boras, it is doubtful that he would entertain an extension, and the Dodgers are probably not going to pay what the Urias going rate will be for 2024. If Carlos Rodón is asking 6 years $180MM, what will Julio be asking. Both are represented by Scott Boras. They will have Buehler for one year before he hits FA, but what are the chances he returns to his Ace status after two TJ surgeries. For three recent double TJ surgery survivors, Mike Clevinger certainly has not, and while Nathan Eovaldi may be considered an Ace for Boston, he is not an Ace for a contender. Jameson Taillon had his 2nd TJ surgery August 2019, and was out the rest of 2019 and all of 2020. He pitched 144.1 innings in 2021 with NYY to a 4.30 ERA. He improved in 2022 to become a mid-tiered SP in FA.
Nevertheless, LAD has enough future starting pitching depth that they can backfill the rotation rather than look for up front starting rotation talent.
Trea Turner and his 6.3 fWAR has landed in Philadelphia. No longer will we be seeing this in a LAD uniform.
Thanks, Trea. We'll always have the slide seen 'round the world
— Doug McKain (@DMAC_LA) December 5, 2022
Now what?
So while I do not believe it will happen, I agree with Badger and others that the Dodgers DO need to find a long-term SS solution. If not this year, then when? Gavin Lux can be a terrific All Star 2B for the long-term, but I do not think he is the answer for SS. Forget what AF says. What is he supposed to say? “We cannot win with Lux at SS”. If not Lux, then who? Even if they go out and get a stopgap SS, who do the Dodgers have in the pipeline?
- Jacob Amaya
- Eddys Leonard
- Wilman Diaz
Jacob Amaya is not ready, and most evaluators do not think he will be a regular everyday SS, because of his 45 hitting skill and 40 power skill. He could become a good defensive utility infielder. Will he ever hit enough to be a regular?
Eddys Leonard primarily played SS last year, but in 2021 he started games at 2B (25), 3B (23) and CF (11), besides SS (35). He has a plus arm, and has enough speed to be a average SS. But he could be a plus defensive 2B.
Wilman Diaz has had a rough start to his career, and his prospect status has been dropping like a rock. Okay maybe rough start is way too kind. Horrendous start? But he is only 19, much too young to give up on. But if everything turns around for him, it will be at least three years before he is remotely ready. The Dodgers cannot wait that long.
Jorbit Vivas is limited to 2B.
That’s it. No other projectable SS in the pipeline. How did this happen?
So do the Dodgers find a stopgap SS or stopgap 2B (with Lux at SS) until Leonard is ready for his shot? Or do the Dodgers go out and sign one of the remaining elite 3.
If the Dodgers gamble and wait this year, will they be able to later find an elite SS? While there is no such thing as a can’t miss prospect, the Dodgers’ prospects have a ways to go to even be considered a legit everyday SS. Possible? Sure. Probable? I have my doubts.
Let’s take a look at the Dodgers position players on the 40 man. The Dodgers currently have a total of 37 players on the 40 man. Position players include:
- Catchers – 3
- Infielders – 8
- Outfielders – 6
Thus, they have 17 position players. At least 4 of them have no chance of making the team out of Spring Training…Diego Cartaya, Jonny DeLuca, Eddys Leonard, and Jorbit Vivas.
That would leave a current 13 man position player roster of:
- C – Will Smith – (R)
- 1B – Freddie Freeman – (L)
- 2B – Chris Taylor – (R)
- 3B – Miguel Vargas – (R)
- SS – Gavin Lux – (L)
- LF – James Outman – (L)
- CF – Trayce Thompson – (R)
- RF – Mookie Betts – (R)
- DH – Max Muncy – (L)
Bench
- C – Austin Barnes – (R)
- SS – Jacob Amaya – (R)
- 2B/LF/DH/PH – Michael Busch – (L) – Edwin Rios replacement
- OF – Andy Pages – (R)
The depth would have to come from the AAAA players signed to MiLB contracts. This cannot possibly be how the Dodgers break camp, can it?
They can interchange Vargas and Muncy, Vargas and Outman, Muncy and CT3. They can switch CT3 and Lux. CT3 says he is more comfortable at SS. This is how the Dodgers like to operate…a plethora of lineup changes. But is this a World Series Championship team?
The Dodgers currently have $46MM before they reach the CBT threshold. The Dodgers can afford to splurge on a SS. But will they? An elite SS could make everything else workable. The Astros gambled and struck gold with Jeremy Peña. The Braves may try the same with 22 year old Vaughn Grissom. With the Trea Turner signing, Dansby Swanson’s asking price just increased and could be out of Atlanta’s comfort zone. They were looking at $100MM, and we all know that is not going to be near enough to keep Swanson. With a current $221MM AAV payroll, letting him go may be the plan.
Or can LAD stretch $46MM out for multiple holes. A mid tiered middle infielder, a mid tiered OF, a mid to late rotation SP, and another middle reliever. The problem with mid tiered players is that if you rely on too many average players, you could end up with an average team. With their pitching, it could be good enough to contend for the NL West or at least a Wild Card, and then hope to get hot at the right time. I think that is how many out there believes it works. Dave Roberts has difficulty getting an elite team across the finish line, how do you think he would do with the above roster?
They can garner those players this via FA or via trade. The problem with a trade, is that they do not have a lot of MLB ready players they can afford to lose that teams will want. Plus, they could lose 2-4 Rule 5 draftees. That loss, with any trade, could hurt their MiLB system.
- Ryan Noda – Some have said he is already better than 10 MLB 1B.
- Carlos Duran – I can see several teams that might take Duran. He can remain on the IL for the full season.
- José Ramos – It will really take a non-competitive team to keep him on their 26 man for the full season.
- Justin Yurchak – Less likely, but some are predicting he will be selected.
It looks like JT could be a possible late signing, but with the Dodgers?
Other news out of the Winter Meetings is that the All MLB Teams were named:
First Team
Second Team
The Dodgers’ total of five 1st and 2nd team players were the most in the NL, and only trailed Houston’s six.
Baseball’s inaugural draft lottery will be held Tuesday, with reverse order of the standings no longer determining who picks first through sixth. MLB Network will air the lottery at 5:30 p.m. (PDT).
The Nationals, Athletics and Pirates have the best odds of claiming the first selection, at 16.5 percent.
Just in case Carlos Correa finds an offer from AF/BG too good to turn down, I found this article, FWIW.
https://www.click2houston.com/sports/2020/02/16/carlos-correa-opens-up-about-sign-stealing-scandal/
The Padres reportedly offered Trea Turner more than did the Phillies. That tells us two things:
1. Turner was honest about wanting to play on the east coast, and
2. The Padres are not afraid to spend big $$$ to win it all this year.
He might have stayed with the Dodgers had they offered what the Padres did, but there was no chance of that. The Padres offer was apparently enough to cover the state income tax difference between California and Pennsylvania.
The Cubs are serious enough about spending this winter, that they are comfortable playing this year’s Texas Rangers, with signing both Bogaerts and Swanson. Bogaerts has to be willing to move to 3B. Nico Hoerner at 2B, Dansby Swanson at SS, and Bogaerts at 3B. That is a formidable infield. But Chicago is going to need to outbid both Arizona and San Diego and others, for Bogaerts.
The Giants are looking to add two elite OF. They are feeling comfortable with their prospects for Judge and also want to sign Nimmo. Of course they were feeling comfortable with getting Bryce Harper as well.
The Giants have made big offers for Judge (SF) and Trea Turner (SD). The Dodgers have been short on their 2-year offer for Tyler Anderson, but struck gold with Shelby Miller. We have no clue as to whether the Dodgers actually made an offer for Justin Verlander. We do know that NYY did.
Or at least the following hinted at it.
https://twitter.com/nyporchsport/status/1599818142204952577?s=20&t=YqmJnn1MH9rPuAZulte7NQ
Andrew Heaney’s camp is reporting they have multiple three year offers but are looking for a 4th year. If the reports are true and not just bluster, I think it is safe to say, the Dodgers are not one of those teams.
Watching Trea was fun while it lasted. It will be interesting to see how he ages.
Morons on Twitter. Yep.
Hard to know at this point whether the Dodgers are being smart or missing the boat. They haven’t done much yet. That lineup listed here is not 111 wins but it isn’t a bad lineup. Maybe Lux finally breaks out and becomes a team leader from the shortstop position. Maybe Vargas becomes a version of Yordan. Maybe Amaya is Peña, Cartaya is Molina and maybe May, Grove, Pepiot, Stone and Miller will all become 4 WAR pitchers. Or, maybe we go ahead and pay the tax on $300 million payroll. We are the Los Angeles Dodgers. We have more money than god. Not the capital g God, but you know, a lesser god. And not a lesser god like the Musk god either, more like Goddenheim. Never mind. Feel like I’m digging myself another hole here.
Off season ain’t over yet. And I have an accupunctuation appointment this morning. Maybe I’ll feel more better after that.
Doncon might be our best SS prospect.
NYY signed Tommy Kahnle for 2 years $11.5MM.
I like Swanson a lot with the exception of him being rooted in Georgia and we would be yanking him out of there by the roots. Will those roots grow deep in LA soil?
I like Correa as well. He wants a big contract but doesn’t promise to be able to play 154 innings.
I am one of the few that won’t be disappointed if Lux is the Dodger shortstop. Justs don’t put Muncy at second.
I also like Betts at second base. That would open spots for Outman, Thompson, and a free agent like Haniger. If Vargas plays third then Taylor is the insurance at SS, 2nd base, and outfield. Muncy would be the backup for 3rd and DH. Although I think Busch could be the DH as well and less cost.
I am also okay with starting the season with Urias, Gonsolin, Kershaw, May, and Pepiot/Grove/Jackson/Miller/Stone for the rotation. Since Gonsolin, Kershaw, and May maybe being 130 to 150 inning pitchers in 2023, the Dodgers could go with a 6 man rotation.
The Dodgers need to reset their CBT in 2023 and have a chance of signing Ohtani in 2024.
I would rather have Swanson or Correa more than Haniger but again, either way, I won’t complain prior to the midpoint of 2023 if things don’t work out. Hopefully Taylor and Muncy were disappointments last year because of injuries and are now healthy.
Despite it reeking of short-termist, which I despise.
I kinda like how “all-in” the Padres are.
I wonder if sports are one of the few areas that Short-Termism has more upside.
Rosenthal:
White Sox might move Hendriks but said to not want to trade Anderson.
Unlikely the Dodgers start with “say, Lux at Short, Outman in CF and Vargas in CF….”
Dodgers in on Correa according to two agents for other (not CC) players
Wishful prediction: Freddie persuades his good buddy Dansby to join him in L.A. It would sure make Freddie’s son happy.
Also, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Dodgers offer Gallo an incentive-laden one-year contract.
Some random thoughts as we enter Day 3 of the Winter Meetings:
Even future HOF pitchers have trouble trying to figure out what AF is going to do. Kershaw was quoted:
I agree with Kersh about the fun. This is a fun time of year for year-round baseball junkies like me. It is also a time for fan impatience and exasperation (including me).
Clayton Kershaw also had this to say on re-signing with Dodgers:
I hope Andrew puts together a team that can make another run for Clayton, Mookie, and Freddie. I hope his sights are higher than Andrew McCutchen.
————–
It is interesting to look at the MLBTR Top 50 FA list. After the elite 3 remaining SS, here are the remaining infield players available:
· 1B – Josh Bell
· 2B – Jean Segura
· 3B – Brandon Drury and JT
· SS – None after the elite 3
————–
Tommy Kahnle – $5.25MM spent – 13 games, 0.3 bWAR
Danny Duffy – $3.00MM spent – 0 games
Blake Treinen – $8.00MM spent – 5 games, 0.2 bWAR
They get to do it again with Treinen in 2023 with another $8MM and expected games = 0.
————–
The Padres offered Trea Turner more than $341MM, eclipsing Francisco Lindor as the highest paid infielder. It is not as if they were driving the cost up for the Dodgers. That is insane for a position they do not need. It also seems like Trea was thinking once you hit $300MM, what is another $41MM anyway when I can stay back east.
JPL star LF, Masataka Yoshida has just been posted. He is a 29 year old left hand hitting OF with excellent bat to ball skills, but limited power. Teams have 45 days to make their best offer. Increased from 30 days of negotiation to 45 for this year.
Friedman tried to sign Trea and Verlander. Sometimes what makes Friedman great is he gets outbid. Time will tell. Example: Anthony Rendon
Sometimes he doesn’t get outbid. Example: Bauer
Heaney to the Rangers.
Rangers to sign Andrew Heaney on a 2 year $25MM guarantee deal, with an opt out. It has incentives that could increase contract to $37MM.
Via Twitter.
What’s right about Friedman:
Tyler Anderson, Andrew Heaney, Chris Martin and Tommy Kahnle made about $23 million combined last season
After showcasing improvements with the Dodgers, they’ve now combined for $93 million in guaranteed money as free agent signings this offseason
Friedman will do the unexpected. He’s always working on something. And it’s no surprise who he wants is Ohtani.
Swanson shows up on “the most likely to be overpaid list.” $25 million for 5-6 years. He had his best of 7 years at the right time. He won’t do 5.7 WAR again.
“If the owners didn’t have the money, they wouldn’t spend it.
The owners have TONS of money.”
Maybe. Try selling that to fans in Oakland, Pittsburgh, Miami, Tampa, Cleveland, Baltimore, Minnesota, KC, Milwaukee etc. Something to remember, it’s not the owners that are paying these salaries, it’s the fans. Always has been. What teams have the highest tv contacts? What teams have the highest FCI costs? That information is available and the answers are not all that surprising.
Shame on me for listening to Jon Heyman. He has taken back his report that Judge has agreed to sign with SF. I assume that he is close to signing with some team.
Bellinger to Cubs.
Gonna be a very different, but still awesome team.
Related: Andrew Friedman yesterday on if LAD needed to add another OF (whether it be Bellinger or someone else):
“I think we have really talented guys in place … It would be nice to lengthen but I don’t think it’s critical. I think we can allocate other places & be a really good team.”
NOTES!
From Baerga:
Judge and Correa to the SF Giants.
From Dave Roberts presser:
— LAD will add an OF this winter, likely one who can handle CF
— Getting another SP is likely, but might be lower cost add similar to Tyler Anderson last year
— Not a reach for 5-6 prospects (Vargas, Miller, Stone, Pepiot, etc) to “impact” team. Roberts specifically also said prospects like Bobby Miller, Gavin Stone and Miguel Vargas will all contribute this season.
Bellinger’s deal is $12MM salary in 2023 and a $5.5MM buyout of a mutual 2024 option not expected to get exercised. How often do mutual options get exercised anyway? They are calling it a 1 year $17.5MM deal. He will need roughly a 2.2 fWAR to justify that deal financially. I am hoping that Belli goes beyond 2.2 fWAR.
I am not surprised that Belli did not re-sign with LAD. But when Roberts was asked about adding an OF, he said they were looking to add an OF who can play CF. Welcome to LAD Kevin Kiermaier. 😀
https://twitter.com/Jack_A_Harris/status/1600286003175907329?s=20&t=N2Z6ZO9TQfaYbQkzY2asLg
In his presser, he says the Dodgers will look for a SP but one more in line with last year’s Tyler Anderson. Welcome to LAD Michael Wacha or Michael Lorenzen.
Expects 5-6 rookies to make an impact.
No mention of the need for a middle infielder. Doesn’t need to have said it without recognizing they need one. Why let on to the FA.
Giants sign Mitch Haniger 3 year $43.5MM. $14.5 AAV. Not an issue for SF. Still in on Aaron Judge.
Opt out for 2024.
Sorry Bums.
Phillies sign RHSP Taijuan Walker to 4 years – $72MM. $18MM AAV.
Phillies have increased their AAV by $45MM, and are still $7MM shy of the threshold. They have done well thus far this winter. They are still looking for a back end reliever.