In a 162-game schedule, it does not take a mathematician to determine that 81 games mark the halfway mark. But traditionally, the All-Star Break is the determinant of the end of the first half. And yet the Dodgers have played 97 games, 16 games passed the actual halfway point.
It used to be that the MLB draft was held early June. Teams could focus on the upcoming draft before concentrating in earnest about where their team stands for a potential determination of seller or buyer. There were also less playoff teams allowing for the chasm between the buyers and sellers to widen.
Now the draft is at the same time as the All-Star Break, and the Commissioner’s plan to keep more teams in the playoff hunt is working well this year. Currently 12 NL teams are within 3.5 games of the final WC spot, and 9 AL teams are within 5.5 games. The trade deadline is July 30 at 3:00PM PT. That is less than a 2-week sprint for teams to determine if they are buyers or sellers.
Even with the number of current LAD players on the IL, it is extremely unlikely that the Dodgers will lose a 7.0 game lead in the NL West over the next 65 games. As an aside, where would the Dodgers be without Shohei Ohtani??? The LAD will be a different team with Mookie and Muncy back. I do not know when Muncy gets back, but hopefully he will have 2-3 weeks to work on his timing. It is a different Mookie this year, once less reliant on slug and more selective approach at the plate. And was hitting extremely well WRISP, something he is going to need to remember how to do come October.
So, what do the Dodgers do to help take them over the top, or at least help them to get past the NLDS without embarrassing themselves. And no I am not one to believe that it falls on luck once you get to the playoffs. When you have a one-dimensional approach and playoff teams can find a way to take the Dodgers out of that approach, the task is easier to defeat them.
For the last two years, the Dodgers have relied on slug first and were not able to generate runs in winnable games. For the life of me, I cannot understand the thinking that the Dodgers inability to hit WRISP boils down to luck. Choke up on the bat, hit the ball where pitched, and not try to hit the ball 500 feet. Swing at first strike. And of the Earl Weaver special, a 3-run HR, happens all the better. But IMO, without worrying about slug, there was one inning in 2024 that was emblematic of what this team can do.
11th inning – 7-7 tie against SFG:
Free runner on 2B, next seven batters:
- IBB
- Double
- Double
- Single
- Single
- Triple
- Sacrifice Fly
7 runs later the Dodgers had an overwhelming victory. The problem?? They shat the bed the next game. Why such inconsistency? It is not the talent or lack thereof. Is it roster construction? The RVS approach? Taking on Dave Roberts’ too nice personality? Probably all of the above. But it is not luck that has beaten them. It is teams taking the Dodgers out of their approach, and the Dodgers inability to find a way once they are out of that approach.
Do the Dodgers need Crochet or Skubal? Or will a Flaherty or Fedde or Eflin or Kikuchi do? Crochet and Skubal are more long-term assets that will cost a bundle in prospect capital, and contrary to the thinking of many, something that LAD does not have. For this exercise, let’s forget about pitching for right now. Let’s also forget about Kiké, CT3, Heyward, Barnes as players well past their prime and not players who are likely to drive a lot of trade interest.
Lux, Vargas, Outman, Ryan Ward, Drew Avans, Andre Lipcius, Trey Sweeney, Hunter Feduccia, Kody Hoese, Alan Trejo, Chris Owings, Austin Gauthier. Only the biggest LAD pollyannaish believe any of those will be frontliners for a Crochet or Skubal. I do believe that Diego Cartaya is showing enough that he can be considered a legit backup to Smith next year.
The LAD #1 prospect, Dalton Rushing, is a legit top 100 prospect and could be a headliner if properly packaged. The only other AA prospect that might interest teams in 22-year-old SS Alexander Chance Freeland.
The Dodgers prospect capital lies in the unknown A Ball and Rookie Ball and in their pitching:
- Josue De Paula
- Thayron Liranzo
- Kendall George
- Joendry Vargas
- Jeral Perez
- Emil Morales
- Eduardo Quintero
- Zyhir Hope
- Alexander Albertus
These guys are at least 2-5 years away from being impactful at the MLB level. Only one is a top 100 prospect, and like it or not, that is what drives trade deadline deals. Dodger fans can hype the prospects all they want, but that is not going to make them more of an interest to a team looking to trade elite talent to jump start their rebuild.
Do the Dodgers want to trade their future? I suspect they are willing, but probably not as much as some fans want them to be.
With Tyler Glasnow, the Dodgers do not need an Ace. If they somehow get Yamamoto back, they do not need a #2. But if he is not back, this is where the Dodgers will look to find a suitable Co #2 with Gavin Stone. I am not convinced that Bobby Miller nor Walker Buehler will be So while Crochet and Skubal would be great, I do not believe the Dodgers have the prospect capital to get either one…that AF is willing to leverage the future with.
Erick Fedde is a logical target for this role. Jack Flaherty, if healthy, is a logical target. Zach Eflin is a soft tossing RH version of Paxton. I am not as much of a fan of Yusei Kikuchi as others, but he too is a logical target. There will be others who will pop up, but IMO the Dodgers will not push for Crochet or Skubal. They may drive the price up, but they will be 2nd or 3rd best in that deal.
Where hope comes into the equation, is that I am sure the Dodgers will be hoping that Landon Knack, River Ryan, James Paxton, or Justin Wrobleski pitch as Brandon Pfaadt did last October as the Dodgers #4. Or are the Dodgers counting on Brent Honeywell being that addition?
The Dodgers have to spend for a Fedde or Flaherty. Two #4 or #5 pitchers do not help. Get one of the two. Eflin or Kikuchi as backup only.
Offensively it does not matter who they target if they choose to continue with their singular approach to slug. With Mookie, Shohei, Freddie, Smith, Teoscar, Muncy, Pages, and Rojas, they do not need Luis Robert Jr. at that cost. I like the idea of Randy Arozarena and his playoff bat in the LAD lineup. They would have to live with Pages defensively in CF. Is Brent Rooker a legit target? He certainly fits the slug mold the Dodgers look for.
Or do they believe that the offense when fully intact is lethal enough that they might concentrate on CF defense and look to add Kevin Kiermaier.
Can the Dodgers improve on the bench roles of Kiké, CT3, Vargas???
Now that the traditional first half of the season is complete, and the draft is over, the next two weeks the eyes of the LAD fans will be on AF to see how he plans to attack October. The rumors will be running high, and it will be near impossible to figure out what AF will be looking to do.
So, what can we expect the cost to be? KC just acquired a setup reliever, Hunter Harvey, from Washington. The cost, 22-year-old 3B prospect Cayden Wallace, KC’s #2 prospect, and a competitive balance pick in the 2024 draft (#39 overall). Washington used the pick to draft well thought of catcher, Caleb Lomavita, from Cal. That was for a 29-year-old setup reliever with a 4.20 ERA and 1.22 WHIP.
If we are into hoping, let’s simply hope that AF guesses right as to who the best fit for the Dodgers will be for October.
I agree with those assessments Jeff. I think Dodger fans are dreaming if they think the Dodgers have enough prospect capital to outbid the Orioles, or some other team for Crochet. I totally believe Skubal stays right where he is.
Ragazzo (spelling ?) has a rumor out that the Dodgers working on a trade for Crochet and Robert jun.
https://www.reddit.com/r/baseball/comments/1e6rxp9/ragazzo_sources_dodgers_are_heavily_in_on_chicago/?rdt=41317
Go Dodgers!!!!!!!!!!
Without knowing when Yamamoto returns or how well Kershaw will perform they need to get a #2 starter. The worst that could happen is that Yamamoto and Kershaw come back strong and they end up with an abundance of.pitching. The abundance would be Playoff pitchers.Glasnow, the new #2, Yamamoto and Kershaw with Paxton and Stone in the bullpen.
But they also need another bat either at 3b or outfield. I’m not as worried about the bullpen as others are, especially with the possible return of Kelly.and.Graterol and some starters moving to the pen.
Since the start of the 20th century, the Dodgers have never won the World Series in any of the 10 seasons in which they won 100 or more games.
I’know willing to include Outman in a trade for Robert.
Dodgers 2025 schedule is out on the Dodger website. I found it interesting that they play the Cubs 7 times next year. 2 in Tokyo, 3 in LA and 2 more in Chicago. The also play the Angels 5 times next year instead of 4. The Yankees return to LA next season. They finish the year on the road against the D-Backs and then Seattle. The seven games with the Cubs are all completed before the end of April. Most of their games in April are at home.
Had some time on my hands this morning so I’ve compiled a shopping list for AF.
He says he’s going to shop at the top of the market (filet mignon) but might add lesser pieces if the deal is right (hamburger).
I’ve grouped these players by position and have only included guys that I have read (at least once) MIGHT be available. Doesn’t mean they will be and if they are it doesn’t mean Andrew will be high bidder or even interested.
Outfielders:
Robert Jr.
Arozarena
Pham
Rooker
Winker
Happ
Infielders:
Bichette
Hoerner
Paredes
Rengifo
McMahon
India
Donovan
Rodgers
Edman
Starters:
Skubal
Crochet
Eflin
Eovaldi
Snell
Flaherty
Fedde
Kikuchi
Bassitt
Gray (Jon)
Bullpen:
Miller
Erceg
Estevez
Finnegan
Yates
Scott
Puk
Fairbanks
Bear disclaimer:
Rockies owner doesn’t like to trade his favorite players
GM’s don’t like to trade within the division
Yes fake stat that Ohtani had most Extra base hits before Allstar game in Dodger history. But Dukes 1954 total was at halfway mark in fewer games
Reds DFA Edwin Rios. Another in the looooong line of LAD prospects who give credibility for the Dodgers for having a great farm system because they make MLB (a great accomplishment), but do not fall into the regular everyday position player role. Rios, Bannon, Calhoun, McKinstry, De Luca, Cody Thomas, Beaty…
Something else for Andrew to consider as he talks to other teams is the players who are already, or will be this winter, eligible for the Rule 5. If he doesn’t plan to put them on the 40-man roster this winter, he should try to include them in a trade so he doesn’t run the risk of losing them for nothing.
Some of the better known:
Trey Sweeney
Austin Gauthier
Ben Casparius
Edgardo Henriquez
Ryan Ward
Drew Avans
Kody Hoese
There are currently 9 players on the IL, most of whom will probably be back with the team next year, so all in all, a lot of space is going to be needed.
I know AF has come under some warranted scrutiny. It comes with being the POBO of the Los Angeles Dodgers. I have been critical, but mostly because of the draft. But I have more often been positive with AF as he somehow finds a way to build a 100 win team. Shohei, Yamamoto, Glasnow, Teoscar, Paxton. Where would the Dodgers be without those players this year? They would probably be in a position for selling at the deadline.
Glasnow and Paxton were previous injury prone pitchers, but they are not the ones who have been injured. I do not believe that Glasnow was truly injured, and Yamamoto never showed any inclination for injury. Instead it is Mookie, Muncy, Miller, Sheehan, Graterol, Frasso, Hurt…all injured during the year (okay Frasso last November). Joe Kelly signing was more than curious. Ryan Brasier signing a two year deal also curious.
It is clear to me that the Dodgers re-signed Kiké Hernández and Jason Heyward because AF/BG were not convinced that those in OKC were MLB ready. The Dodgers are not a low market team. They spent $1 Billion++ on two players. I do not believe they were/are concerned with a few million for Kiké or Heyward. So IMO any argument about unwise $$$ spent is specious. Obviously not this year, but previously (as recent as 2023) they were both successful at the MLB level.
Cavan Biggio. On the surface it certainly looks ludicrous. But for me it makes sense. They had no idea how long Max Muncy would be out. IMO, initially they felt it would be a short term, and when he was back, Biggio would be DFA. Why bring up a player that they still believe has a shot just to be DFA and lose via waiver wire when Muncy came back. They wanted a LH bat that left Lipcius out, and they knew that Sweeney was no way MLB ready.
Should AF have known that Outman would go into the toilet in 2024? Should AF have had a backup for Outman? I guess he sorta did with Pages.
Lux? I do not know if Adames was actually available in the Winter. Most observers say NO. Then who? I thought Nick Ahmed could have been a good bridge SS, but he was just released by SFG. Joey Ortiz might have been a good SS target, except the Dodgers did not have a Corbin Burnes available. Tim Anderson? Ahmed Rosario? As it turns out, Paul DeJong would have been a good FA signing, but who knew? IMO, Lux’s problems are more a faction of between the ears, and not talent. When things were going good in 2022 for the then 24 year old he had a 2.8 bWAR. When things go bad, they spiral downhill for him. In 2022 he was mentored a lot by Freddie. A lot of LF line drives. In 2022, he went back to his MiLB swing and found success. But he has once again regressed to that 2020-2021 swing trying to pull everything for power and he acts like he is in quicksand. I think Lux would succeed in a small market environment with little pressure.
The Dodgers have had to navigate a plethora of unplanned and unknown situations (injuries) this year. I am not certain that it is a realistic criticism because AF did not anticipate all of them. I also do not think that the team has to have 13 position player All Stars.
Betts
Ohtani
Freeman
Smith
Muncy
T. Hernández
Pages
Rojas
Heyward/Vargas/ (or Kiké)
Bench: CT3, Lux, Barnes
If all were available, would that really be a bad lineup? The bench could (and should be) upgraded.
No…AF is not on any hot seat, nor should he be.
Now with regards to minority owner and CEO/President of the LA Dodgers, Stan Kasten, he is the absolute last person Mark Walter will fire. The value of the Dodgers has skyrocketed since the Guggenheim group acquired LAD. The global marketing of the brand is unsurpassed probably by any of the American professional sports leagues. Kasten’s job is to build value for the organization and he has done that expertly. And I would surmise well beyond any pre-purchase projections. I do not believe he is involved in the everyday baseball operation of LAD. He will get involved (as any owner group would), with the huge FA signings/extensions, but not the day to day roster construction.
Or how about this news: “Major League Baseball and Guggenheim announced a new partnership today which names the global investment and advisory firm as presenting sponsor of the 2025 Tokyo Series. The Tokyo Series presented by Guggenheim will feature the Los Angeles Dodgers taking on the Chicago Cubs to open the 2025 season at the Tokyo Dome on March 18 and 19.”
Does anyone really believe that Stan Kasten is NOT doing his job? MLB joined Guggenheim in yet another global partnership, with Guggenheim being named as a presenting sponsor. I do not see where the Ricketts family was named as a presenting sponsor. What more could he do to grow the brand globally?
I do not have a clue as to what AF is going to do in the next 11 days. But in my estimation it will mean squat if they do not address the elephant in the room, and that is their inability to hit WRISP consistently enough, especially in the playoffs. Somehow, someway, situational hitting has to take a higher priority.
Great to have you back and commenting, Jeff. Hope your cruise was terrific. Have you officially returned?
When is your surgery, and can you take your computer (or phone) into the operating room? With your commentary on the current (and future) team and Bear’s writings on the historic Dodgers, you’ve built a truly wonderful site here.
Your Biggio scenario makes perfect sense, but that doesn’t mean I have to like the way it played out.
What do you think we could get if we packaged Lux and Outman? Flaherty??
Every Dodger swinging as hard as they can on every pitch. Seemingly
I think I am starting to see what the Dodgers see in Vargas’ glove.
Greinke, Hill, and Bauer.