We are now at the start of the 2nd half, and the draft is behind us. AF/BG now need to ink the 22 players drafted before the August 1 signing deadline Interestingly, the trade deadline, and the deadline for draft picks to sign or the team losing that are both August 1. I am sure that baseball organizations are more than capable of walking and chewing gum at the same time. Different factions within the organization handle the two facets of player acquisition. However, AF will have veto power over every transaction…draft or trade.
More and more teams are sliding into the seller class, and I would expect more will as the deadline approaches. Trade scenarios are going to be headline material for the next near three weeks. Many teams that are (or should be) sellers are posturing that they will in fact be buyers at the deadline. So there are going to be some outlandishly crazy scenarios.
No matter how many times I get scoffed at, I remain convinced that the team as it is RIGHT NOW, cannot win the NL pennant much less the WS. The injuries continue to mount and we still do not know when Clayton Kershaw will pitch next. The players who were acquired to be reserves or platoon at most (Miguel Rojas, Jason Heyward, and David Peralta), are playing a more prominent part of the lineup.
I am not going to do the research, but can anyone tell me when was the last time four rookie pitchers were prominent for a WS team?
One thing I have learned is that LAD fans seem to want to hold onto all of the prospects or believe they have more value as MLB players with LAD than being trade material for more imminent needs.
Besides the four rookies: Emmet Sheehan, Bobby Miller, Michael Grove, and Gavin Stone, the Dodgers have three starting pitchers who become Rule 5 eligible this December: Landon Knack, Nick Frasso, and Kyle Hurt. Nick Nastrini, River Ryan, and Ben Casparius are Rule 5 eligible December 2024.
Two other players that will become Rule 5 eligible this winter and need to be considered are Yeiner Fernandez and Kendall Williams.
Current Rule 5 draft eligible players that could draw interest this winter: Hunter Feduccia, Devin Mann, Ryan Ward, and Alec Gamboa. Alec Gamboa absolutely needs to be considered. Once he was permanently moved to the bullpen, he has been outstanding. He knows his role in 2023, and he has been excellent in relief. Plus Gus Varland got through once already.
Two more pitchers that need to be considered are Carlos Duran and Edgardo Henriquez. Duran is eligible and Henriquez will be in December.
I bring this up, because it absolutely needs to be considered when discussing trades. As I often say, you cannot keep them all.
With that as a preface, here are some LAD trade scenarios postured by a couple of baseball journalists.
My comments in italics.
Per BleacherReport – Zachary D. Rymer
Dodgers get LHP James Paxton and OF Adam Duvall, Red Sox get RHP River Ryan and LHP Maddux Bruns.
- James Paxton is an interesting target. He pitched 7.2 shutout innings on June 30 on 110 pitches. For June he pitched 7.0, 6.0, 6.1, 4.0, and 7.2 innings. He added 6.0 IP on July 8. That is 5 QS. He was pitching well in the 4.0 game, so I do not know why he came out. But he was over 100 pitches in 2 of the games and over 90 in all five.
- I am not sure that the Dodgers need Adam Duvall. But maybe he can become the Jorge Soler, Steve Pearce, David Freese, Scott Brosius in the WS. Maybe they change Duvall to JT.
Dodgers get LHP Jordan Montgomery and OF Dylan Carlson, Cardinals get RHP Gavin Stone, RHP Nick Frasso and LHP Maddux Bruns.
- Jordan Montgomery should be a huge priority, but not so much Dylan Carlson. Louis needs to trade at least one of their OF and packaging Carlson with Montgomery may be the only way. But I would not trade Stone, Frasso, and Bruns for a rental and multiple years of a mediocre CF.
- This is more of a concern now that Montgomery is on the IL with a hamstring injury. How severe?
Dodgers get RHP Shane Bieber and SS Amed Rosario, Guardians get 2B Michael Busch, OF Josue De Paula and SS Rayne Doncon.
- Amed Rosario falls into the same category as does Dylan Carlson. He may not be desired, but you may not get Bieber without taking Rosario. Plus, if I have an untouchable it is Josue De Paula. Switch Andy Pages for De Paula and it becomes more palatable for me.
Dodgers get RHP Marcus Stroman, 3B Patrick Wisdom and RHP Michael Fulmer, Cubs get C Dalton Rushing.
- Stroman, Wisdom, and Fulmer for Rushing? Why do the Dodgers need Patrick Wisdom or Michael Fulmer? I like Stroman, and the Cubs are not extending him. Thus he is a rental as long as he chooses to opt out after 2023 (which he will do). Is Fulmer better than the back four of the LAD bullpen? I do like Stroman, but I do not think I want to trade Rushing straight up for Stroman much less take on the other two.
Dodgers get RHP Lucas Giolito and SS Tim Anderson, White Sox get RHP Nick Frasso and C Jesus Galiz.
- Giolito and Anderson for Frasso and Galiz. If this is even a consideration, AF should begin negotiating now.
Eight trade scenarios. I failed to write down the author of these eight proposals:
Dodgers/CWS options:
Option 1:
Dodgers get Tim Anderson and Kendall Graveman for Jorbit Vivas and Ben Casparius.
- Anderson and Graveman for Vivas and Casparius? While the cost is very minimal, neither Anderson nor Graveman are needs. Although, I would like to see what Graveman might cost on his own.
Option 2:
Dodgers get Lucas Giolito for Landon Knack, River Ryan, and Eddys Leonard.
- Lucas Giolito for River Ryan, Eddys Leonard, and Landon Knack is doable. That is LAD prospects #12, #17, and #18. I would prefer to keep Knack, but to get a pitcher at the level of Giolito, the values are going to be up for the number of teams that will be in on him. This will probably not be enough when all of the teams are bidding.
Option 3:
Dodgers get Dylan Cease for Michael Busch, Nick Frasso, River Ryan, and José Ramos.
- Dylan Cease for Busch, Frasso, Ryan and Ramos – I do not believe that AF is going to trade 4 prospects for a non-rental. That is not who he is. Should he? For Cease, maybe he should. Is Cease a lesser version of Alek Manoah…one year wonder? Or is he the CY candidate he was in 2022? That is a risk.
Dodgers get LHSP Jordan Montgomery and RHRP Jordan Hicks from St. Louis for Landon Knack, José Ramos, and Maddux Bruns.
- Montgomery and Hicks for Knack, Ramos, and Bruns? Is Hicks really that much of a late inning reliever? He strikes out a ton, but his WHIP is 1.48. Too many BB and almost a hit an inning. The Dodgers have plenty of pitchers at that level. But I do like Montgomery. What would it take to get him alone?
Dodgers get Marcus Stroman from Cubs for River Ryan, José Ramos, and Alex Freeland.
- Marcus Stroman for River Ryan, José Ramos, and Alex Freeland. Why in the world would Chicago do that deal? It is going to take a lot more to get Stroman. Yes Stroman would be a rental, but he is the Cubs Ace. The Dodgers have a good and deep farm system, but will their #12, #21, and #25 prospect be all that is needed to get Stroman? I would bet there will be more teams willing to pony up more. Somewhere between Rushing and this offer could get it done.
Dodgers get Corbin Burnes from Milwaukee for Dalton Rushing, Nick Frasso, Nick Nastrini, and Rayne Doncon.
- Milwaukee learned a valuable lesson last year with Josh Hader. They are not trading a non-rental top of the rotation pitcher when they are in the playoff hunt.
Dodgers get Lane Thomas from Washington for Nick Nastrini, Yeiner Fernandez, and Rayne Doncon.
- The one RH bat that I have mentioned is Lane Thomas. I have no idea why Washington would trade him, but he is the one player they can extract talent for. If all it would take to get Thomas is Nick Nastrini, Yeiner Fernandez, and Rayne Doncon, why is AF waiting?
Those are my comments. What say you?
Keith Law, normally a fan, not a fan of the Dodgers draft!
Most of these are huge overpays.
Adding an SP, no matter how much we need one, who will pitch 10-12 times for us this year isn’t worth multiple AA studs.
Playoffs are where we most need arms, so high end all the way.
Maybe we take back a bad contract to make it work.
There are some head scratching proposals listed above. Why is it necessary for the Dodgers take on a player they have a minimal need in order to get a pitcher they want? I would be good if they could obtain a starting pitcher. A pitcher that is available to pitch when his turn comes up in the rotation. Montgomery has been that kind of pitcher last last three years until his recent hamstring injury. So, no to him. No to injured players hoping they will be ready for the postseason.
I like the following starters. None are aces, but at this point I would be looking for guys that dependable, effective, and can pitch into at least the sixth inning on a regular basis.
Shane Bieber – having a down year, but still shows up when it’s his turn.
James Paxton – had TJ surgery last April, but has been very effective this year.
Dylan Cease – regressed this year after a excellent 2022. Buying low?
Marcus Stroman – having a nice year and will probably cost a lot. LAD has the prospects. A great teammate and leader.
Lucas Giolito – Another workhorse and the player that should be AF’s main target. He’s a FA after the season, a local guy, and could be signed long term. With Urias and Kershaw probably not returning, a veteran starter like Lucas should be considered.
The Dodgers have a ton of pitching depth in their farm system. They all are not going to be pitching for the Dodgers in the future. The team has catching depth. I believe they are two of the positions that teams typically can use. Do what it takes to strengthen the pitching staff. Their offensive is more than enough to be successful in the playoffs. Healthy, veteran pitching should be the aim here with the front office.
Carry on.
No to any trade that is not an obvious and definite upgrade. Don’t waste prospect capital unless it significantly improves the team and their chances to win a championship. I don’t see many players out there that would make a big difference in the Dodgers chances at a championship. It will be a sellers market and that means overpaying. And no top prospects for rental players.
From the great Baseball Trade Value Simulator:
Trade 1:
Cardinals GET Nick Nastrini 11.5
Dodgers GET Jordan Montgomery 14
Trade 2:
White Sox GET
Maddux Bruns 3.4
Diego Cartaya 54.5
Nick Nastrini 11.5
River Ryan 5.6
Dodgers GET
Dylan Cease 48.5
Lucas Giolito 14.8
Cash 10
Trade 3:
Dodgers GET
Jack Flaherty 3.3
Cardinals GET
Ben Casparius 1.1
Eddys Leonard 0.9
Carson Taylor 0.9
All this trade talk bores me.
For those who are ready for 2024:
https://www.mlb.com/dodgers/schedule/2024-03
I hadn’t realized what a nice year Paxton was having. Might definitely be worth a look. We could use some of our Rule 5 eligible guys to tempt the Sox.
I’m still interested in Lance Lynn. His last game was excellent and he’ll come a lot cheaper than Giolito.
Lane Thomas intrigues me. I’d give them Feduccia, Ramos and Knack but I’m not sure that would do it. They’re all just about MLB ready which might suit the White Sox more than the above-mentioned players.
Still think we need a veteran for the back of the bullpen so we can use Phillips in high leverage instead of just holding him back for the 9th inning. Hudson would have been perfect but we can’t count on him. I’d love to get Hendriks but I’m not sure he’ll be healthy enough to pitch again this year. Elbow problems are scary.
So maybe we should go after Graveman. He’s an experienced closer with a good track record.
Stop the presses!
We’ve just signed centerfielder Jake Marisnick (who wasn’t good enough to keep a roster spot with the Tigers) to a major league contract.
This means that Jonny D. is probably on his way to OKC as I write this and someone will have to be lopped off the 40 man roster or Thor will have to be moved to the 60 day IL (the more likely result).
Who needs Lane Thomas or Luis Robert when you can have Jake Marisnick?
No need to answer that one, folks.
I want Miller, Stone, and Sheehan to be successful and part of the long-term rotation. If they can add Giolito and extend him that would be great. Finishing 2023 with Kershaw, Urias, Gonsolin, Miller, Sheehan, Stone, and Giolito works for me.
So, get Giolito and depending on that cost make another trade for a young controllable 3rd baseman. If the Yankees trade for Soto like Jeter recommends then maybe they will want to refill some of the holes in their minor league system.
Muncy and some of the Dodgers pitching prospects that have been identified in the trade scenarios here for Oswald Peraza. That one is for you STB. You asked and I obliged.
Some good news coming out of the All-Star Break.
Ryan Pepiot is joining the OKC on a rehab assignment and is scheduled to start tomorrow’s game in Sacramento.
Will be great if he and Stone can both regain their form
How do you guys feel about Arenado? It sounds like there might be an actual possibility that they would consider moving him although the odds are still not great.
I did some checking and found that his contract really isn’t all that bad.
This is his age 32 season. His contract runs through age 36. If the Pads traded for him they’d immediately extend him through age 50.
These are his net salaries (after deducting what the Rockies are paying him)
This year – 19 mil
Age 33 – 30 mil
Age 34 – 27 mil
Age 35 – 22 mil
Age 36 – 15 mil
His defensive metrics are way down this year but there are many instances where other players have had a bad defensive year and then bounce back after that.
He’d be a righty bat to put in the middle of the lineup, but, of course, he ain’t exactly a youngster any more.
Any takers? If so, what would you offer in trade?
Marisnick. Gallo 2.0. Hope it works out better than Gallo. At least we didn’t give up anything but cash to get him.
Lots of rumors concerning Giolitto. Not sure what to believe at this point.
Jeff, have you ever done a prospect deep dive on Liranzo? If not, I would enjoy reading one. Thanks . . .
LAA is 7.0 GB Texas in AL West, and 5.0 GB Wild Card with 6 teams ahead of them, and tied with one other. Playoff odds at 10.7%.
Here are the current injuries:
· Logan O’Hoppe – Shoulder surgery
· Max Stassi – Hip injury
· Zach Neto – Strained oblique
· Brandon Drury – Shoulder contusion
· Gio Urshela – Fractured pelvis
· Mike Trout – Surgery broken hamate bone
With the injuries, below is their current lineup:
· DH – Shoehei Ohtani
· LF – Taylor Ward
· CF – Mickey Moniak
· 3B – Anthony Rendon
· 1B – Mike Moustakas
· RF – Hunter Renfroe
· C – Matt Thais
· 2B – Luis Rengifo
· SS – Andrew Velazquez
With Trout out…AGAIN…their chances at the playoffs are going south.
It is not any wonder that the Angels are reportedly (Bluto, I do not know if they are informed or uninformed), reconsidering their stance on trading Ohtani. Just like with Juan Soto, it is still considered unlikely. How did that turn out?
Arte Moreno will not allow Peter Minasian to trade Ohtani to LAD. It will be bad enough for them to trade Ohtani. Their attendance will take a huge hit. They are not going to compound that by lifting up the hated Dodgers and trading Ohtani to them.
I would just as soon wait until he becomes a FA, and then putting whatever the best offer AF (and owners) can put in front of him.
Interesting MiLB RP who just exercised his opt out clause with Texas, Ryan Tepera. He signed a 2-year contract with LAA. He pitched well the first year, not so much in 2023. He was released by LAA and Texas signed him to a MiLB contract. With Texas’ AAA affiliate, Round Rock, he pitched much better. He had 8.0 scoreless IP, and his K rate was at 37.9% against a 10.3 walk rate. His fastball velo is back up to where it was in 2020-2022 (93). For that period, Ryan threw 139.1 IP and a 3.29 ERA.
Yes it is AAA, but isn’t that where the Dodgers are getting their relievers from now anyway?
During his 2020-2022 run, Tepera was in two playoffs. Here are his playoff stats:
· 5.1, 1 run, 2 hits (singles), 5 K, 1 BB, 1.69 ERA
He is not the high leverage closer type most would like to see the Dodgers acquire, but he is a decent middle reliever. Open up the competition.
The Athletic had an article about Muncy today and I found the following paragraphs very interesting:
“Last year, just three qualified hitters had a lower batting average on balls in play than Muncy (.227). This year, even after the new restrictions on the shift made seemingly to benefit left-handed pull hitters like Muncy, that number’s gone down. Only the Mets’ Pete Alonso (.186) has a lower BABIP this year than Muncy (.192).
Both marks would be the lowest for a qualified hitter since baseball’s expansion in 1961, which would suggest some positive regression is coming.”
The biggest complaint people have about Max’s hitting this year is his average. He’s certainly contributing homers and RBI and he’s drawing his walks. He just isn’t getting enough hits. This might explain it.