I think fans want the Dodgers to make some real adjustments. I firmly believe that the fans are not going to accept what they might consider, half-measures this time. If Freidman goes after a bunch of reclamation projects, fans will not be happy.
MLBTR had a post yesterday where their experts predicted where the top 50 free agents will land. All guess work of course because at this point in time, no one has any clue where anyone is signing.
They have Ohtani signing with the Dodgers. But they only had one free agent pitcher signing with LA and he isn’t Japanese. They think Sonny Gray ends up with the Dodgers.
I think, well, I believe, the Dodgers will go hard after at least one of the Japanese import pitchers. And I believe it will be the lefty, Imanaga.
He makes more sense than Yamamoto. First, he is left-handed. Second, he is not going to command as large a contract as the very hyped Yamamoto.
Fans like big splashes. AF’s last two were the Betts trade and signing Freddie Freeman. But it has been a while since he brought in a name pitcher. And he has never done that with a free agent pitcher.
Let’s hear your ideas as to who AF should target.
Gray seems mediocre to me. I would much prefer to take a chance on the Asians. Japanese and Korean work ethic is unbeatable. We need some new blood and L.A has a big Asian population to support these players. We are a Pacific Rim team, the future of baseball.
After Ohtani, pitching.
I read again this morning that Burnes might be available. I’d say he’s worth a couple top prospects. Who? I don’t know. I’d go to the trade simulator but it would probably tell me the entire Tulsa Drlllers roster wouldn’t get it done. So, just overpay for Imanaga and be done with it.
Urias hasn’t been charged yet. What’s taking so long? This has a Bauer feel to it. As far as I’m concerned the relationship problems between two people are none of my business. If the woman doesn’t file charges then back off. He pushed her into a fence. Maybe he saw a scorpion at her feet. Having said that, if Urias is my client or my employee, I would insist he gets into therapy and stays in it.
If you’re asking for our opinions I would like to see us acquire 2 top of the rotation pitchers, a good rh bat or 2 to play OF or 3b. I would like to see us add some grit and leadership to the team, someone like Gibson, Reggie,Yaddy.
I like trades, they can save money and fill needs by trading players who are blocked in our system. They just take more work and finesse to get done.
I do not think Ohtani is what we need, at least before these other needs. There, I said it!
Sign Imanaga. Trade for Burnes. All these prospects are losing value as time goes on. Either find a place for them or use them to acquire starting pitching. It seems Milwaukee is rebuilding and could use a infusion of MLB ready (?) prospects. Sign Flaherty, Giolito, or Wacha.
The only position players I would like to see signed is Gurriel for LF and Heyward resigned to platoon in RF with Deluca. Gurriel is a RH bat with above average power and below 20% K rate. Plus defense. A 4-5 year deal for $15M per seems good. Also, he had good playoff production in 2023.
I guess it would be cool to get Ohtani. With his injury history and current health status I don’t see any other teams on the west coast that could risk a half a billion dollars for one player except for the Dodgers. Therefore, these $500-$600M figures seem to be more media contrived numbers. I guess we’ll find out soon enough.
Carry on
Another offensive superstar
A veteran SP or two
No more Peralta-type stop-gaps
Lux, Vargas & Busch in the starting lineup
I’m a fan. I want the Dodgers to win a World Series. I think they could get more value by spending Ohtani money on several players.
There are maybe too many questions. Is Lux healthy enough to play SS. Are the young pitchers ready for a bigger role. Will Muncy hit above the Mendoza line. Willo Vargas or Busch be any good.
My preference would be for the Dodgers to bolster their starting pitching with Burnes, Imanaga, Sonny Gray, and/or Snell. And add a RH bat for LF/DH. They have plenty of money and prospects to get these acquisitions done.
But before everyone panics about not adding all of the free agents, IMO if the Dodgers just retain their existing players they have a playoff team that can win 90+ games. The lineup is better than last year’s lineup that set a Dodger scoring record for this century:
Betts
Freeman
JDM
Muncy
Smith
Outman
Lux
Heyward/Taylor
Busch/ Vargas
Bench: Taylor, Vargas, Kike, Rojas, Barnes, Deluca
Starting Pitching:
Buehler
Miller
Pepiot
Sheehan
Yarbrough
Grove
Stone
Kershaw
The Bullpen is already solid, but will be really good if if they bring back Brasier and Shelby Miller.
I don’t advocate just bringing back the same team, but if they had this roster, I think they could win the NL West. It should be fairly easy to use the additional $70-$100 million in budget to make the team a World Series favorite by focusing on starting pitching.
Over at ESPN and behind their paywall is a retrospective look at the Rangers and the steps taken to win the WS.
https://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/story/_/id/38841610/mlb-2023-world-series-rangers-trades-semien-seager-scherzer
Here are some of the lessons that Dave Shoenfield took away:
Lesson: Be lucky.
Lesson: Find players blocked in other organizations.
Lesson: Hope your bullpen gets hot at the right time.
Lesson: Spend the money!
Lesson: You can never have too much starting pitching.
40% is pretty much luck.
I really like the 2nd one.
On thet final note, Schoenfield expands that he anticipates the Dodgers to heed this lesson this off-season:
The Dodgers will be getting Walker Buehler back, but they’ll be without Kershaw and Julio Urias, leaving Bobby Miller as the only proven holdover from 2023.
If I bring up the name Matt Mervis, how many out there know who he is without looking him up? 6’ 2”, 225, Bats left, throws right. Age (today) 25 years 208 days. He was supposed to be the Cubs 1B last year and one of the favorites for NL ROY. Did not happen.
Mervis’ MiLB Career Metrics
· .277/.370/.528/.898, 67 HR, 277K, 154BB, 1322 PA
· 5.07% HR rate (HR every 19.73 PA), 20.95% K rate, 11.65% BB rate
Mervis’ AAA Career Metrics
· .287/.392/.550/.943, 37 HR, 139K, 93BB
· 5.32% HR rate (HR every 18.81 PA), 19.97% K rate, 13.36% BB rate
Here is another MiLB player. He is 6’ 1”, 210. Age (today) 26 years 1 day (about 5 months older than Mervis).
Career MiLB Metrics
· .283/.390/.529/.919, 79 HR, 389K, 216BB, 1640 PA
· 4.82% HR rate (HR every 19.73 PA), 23.72% K rate, 13.17 BB rate
AAA Metrics
· .293/.385/.544/.930, 48 HR, 169K, 58BB, 973 PA
· 4.93% HR rate (HR every 20.27 PA), 22.51% K rare, 11.82% BB rate
Both players made the MLB debut in 2023.
Mervis – 99 PA, .167/.242/.289/.531, 3 HR, 32K, 8BB
2nd Player – 81 PA, .167/.247/.292/.539, 2 HR, 27K, 8BB
These players are as good of a comp as you may find.
2nd player? …Michael Busch.
Why did I bring this up? I was reading that the Cubs are looking to move an even younger Christopher Morel from 2B/CF to 1B. I was looking for a potential home for Michael Busch, but learned they have Michael Busch.
I really do not know what level of competence that Mervis has as a 1B, but the Cubs are concerned that Mervis will not be a consistent hitter at the MLB level. I am betting that Mervis will get another shot to win the 1B in ST, but Morel will be at the ready to take over.
Busch will never take over 1B for the Dodgers. But if the Cubs are not convinced that Mervis can be an everyday 1B, they are certainly not going to trade for Busch.
Now that is one team. But I am sure that I can find others who could be comps. Older MiLB All Stars on the cusp of MLB, but not quite there. The question is that while Busch/Mervis will be MLB players, will they ever grow into a regular lineup? The Dodgers need to make that same decision this year for Busch/Vargas at 3B, at 2B, at LF. All are in play.
The Yankees want and need more balance between their righty bats and their lefty bats and therefore are said to covet Bellinger and are willing to trade for Soto. If they get neither then Muncy could be someone the Yankees would want.
The Cubs want a first baseman.
If the Dodgers sign Ohtani they will have Ohtani, Lux, Outman, Muncy, Freeman all in the everyday lineup and hitting from the left side. That leaves Smith, Betts, LF, and RF hitting from the right side. They have DeLuca and Taylor as in-house candidates for those outfield positions.
The in-house rotation is Buehler, Miller, Pepiot, Sheehan, Grove, and Stone. I like its potential and ceiling but realize the floor is worrisome. May might not return until 2025. Gonsolin should return in 2024. Adding a one year rental would build a bridge to Gonsolin and give Grove and Stone another year to prove themselves.
Burns would be a good bridge if a trade were made. So might Flaherty. Giolito, Gray, etc would be longer term assets and free up Grove and Stone for trades. Yamamoto would basically represent a lack of faith in Miller, Pepiot, and Sheehan.
A six man rotation or a piggyback system to reduce the demand for innings from Buehler and keep Yamamoto in his comfort zone reduces the number of in-house pitchers the Dodgers could use in trades.
I think the Dodgers would be more fun to watch if Ohtani were on the team and as long as they win 95 regular season games and make the playoffs, I’ll take fun over dominance. That assumes dominance is obtained from having several Aces on the staff.
So, here is my wish list in order of priority:
Sign Ohtani
Sign two from Flaherty, Giolito, Gray, Wacha, Imanaga
Trade for Witt using some combination of Busch, Vargas, Cartaya, Miller, Muncy (3 team trade), Pages, Tulsa Prospects, Pages. Taylor (3 team trade)
Trade for Burnes if Witt is not obtained.
Sign either Gurriel or Heyward depending on whether or not Muncy remains a Dodger.
I just do not get the fascination with Snell. He is a 5-inning pitcher, he walks too many and in his 8 years in the majors, he has had two good seasons, 2018 and 2023. All the rest of his seasons he has been mediocre. Not worth what Boras is going to ask for.
Could Ohtani hit 60 home runs this year now that he won’t pitch?
Since we’ve been talking about trading for Witt Jr or Bichette (dream on!), I decided to go to the Trade Simulator, a site which I find lots of fun but totally crazy on occasion.
This was one of those times.
Bichette value: 55
Witt Jr value : 83
They consider Bobby Miller for Bichette, even up, a mild overpay for the Dodgers.
I think, and maybe they’re right to do so, that they add lots of value to a prime prospect who has lots of control remaining, as opposed to an established young star with less control.
Bichette has 2 years remaining at roughly 12 mil and 17.5 mil.
Witt has 4 years remaining and earned about $750,000 this year.
I have been a Dodger fan for most of my 75 years. Here is what I would like. Another shot at least at winning a World Series. I realize it is not that easy to win the whole thing anymore. Back in the days when just two teams played in the post season, it wasn’t easy either. Especially if you were the Dodgers playing the Yankees. I think a couple of things need to be addressed. First and foremost, this team needs consistent starting pitching. So, a couple of front-line starters first and foremost. They need to strengthen their defense, not weaken it. So, a guy like Teoscar Hernandez is not someone I think they should pursue. His defense is ok, but sorry, he strikes out WAY TOO MUCH. They do need at least one RH bat with some pop. If they do not re-sign Martinez, the only RH hitter on the roster with any power is Mookie. Will Smith, if recovered from his bumps and bruises that curtailed his production for a couple of months this season, can give you 20 plus dingers. But he and Mookie are it without Martinez. Freeman is good for 25-30 long balls, and we know Muncy is a 30-homer guy. More consistent contact and less strikeouts. MLB needs to fix the umpires. I have seen some bad umpiring over the years, but I cannot remember a year where it was this awful. It needs to be addressed.
Not worried about the Dodger bullpen, except for their workload. AF always seems to find a gem or two to put down there. I think it is time to spend some of that prospect depth they have and fill a couple of holes. Let’s think they do not sign Ohtani. Ok, Max can DH and share that duty with Will Smith when he needs a blow from catching. Trade for a third baseman with some fielding chops and a decent bat. I would love to see them get Lane Thomas from the Nationals. The guy definitely has some skills. If they do not sign one of the Japanese free agent pitchers, sign Giolito to a one-year deal like they did Thor and let Pryor work his magic. I would also like to see them bring in Wacha. Guy has some nasty stuff and he pitched well this season. He is coming off of two good years in a row, would probably jump at a three-year deal and be a lot cheaper than Snell, Montgomery or any of those other guys.
I think people who think the Royals will trade Witt, or the Jays will unload Bichette, are totally dreaming. Bichette is only 25. Jays would be more likely to unload Biggio. Some have suggested Chapman at third. Chapman is an Aplus glove, and a decent power hitter. But he suffers from Muncy’s disease and strikes out a ton. Jose Ramirez, with Cleveland seemingly in a rebuild mode, would be a trade target for third. Great glove and some power. I just want to see the team play consistent and good baseball. You know, like they have over the last 11 years.