I was doing a little self-reflection in light of Bluto’s comment about his self-confessed overreaction to Thursday’s debacle. Was I overreacting? And in retrospect, I concluded that I was not overreacting.
First, I react to the game itself. Did it stink? 100%. Was it emblematic of who they are? Not that game.
Friday’s game was on the other side of the spectrum. Total elation for the win. Is that an overreaction? Not to the game. But I also do not believe that game is emblematic as to who this team is.
Prior to Friday’s win, the Dodgers were embarrassed for 3 out of the previous 4 games.
The talent is there. Pieces are missing, just like with every team. But the talent on the LAD roster is elite. But something seems to be missing. Mookie? They are 10-6 since he went on the IL (.625 winning percentage).
The team started out as most of us believed they were capable of. After the first 39 games, the Dodgers were 26-13, a 108 win pace. That includes a 14-2 run at the end of the first 39 games. Thus, before that run, they were 12-11.
For the next 50 games, the Dodgers are 28-22 (.560 winning percentage), or a 91 win pace.
Since Max went on the IL, the Dodgers are 25-18 (.581 winning percentage), or a 94 win pace.
Thus, outside of the Dodgers 14-2 run, they are 40-33 (.548 winning percentage), or a 89 win pace.
Run Differential is even more telling:
- 14-2 Run – 69
- 1st 39 games – 74
- Last 50 Games – 35
- Since Max on IL – 33
- Since Mookie on IL – 8
For a 16 game run, the run differential is 69. Outside of the 14-2 run (73 games), the Dodgers have a run differential of 40.
See chart below for where the Dodgers fall within those 5 game sequences:
R/G = Runs per game
RA/G = Runs against per game
HR/G = HR per game
Outside of the 14-2 run, the HR/game have been very consistent. What isn’t consistent is hitting WRISP. Take a look at the team stats and they are at the very top of most of the offensive metrics. There is no question that this team has the capability of hitting. It is the timing of the hitting that is inconsistent.
The team, more importantly RVS, needs to watch Freddie with 2 strikes and the game on the line. No overswing with a launch angle designed to hit the ball 450 feet, when simply a single will do. Freddie has done that twice in the last 4 games. There are those out there that think Freddie listens to RVS. No he doesn’t. He has not changed his approach since he came over from Atlanta. He is still a line drive hitter who sprays the field, mostly up the middle and gap to gap. Check out Freddie’s 2024 Hit Spray Chart below:
This is what Freddie was trying to get Gavin Lux to do in 2022, and he Lux was doing well. Lux needs to go back to try and emulate Freddie and stay away from the RVS school of pull side power. How many times has he simply just rolled over and grounded out to 2B and jogged down the 1st base line.
The big question is which team is this? They have a 50 game run that shows they are a bit better than average. Good enough to get into the playoffs and then hope for luck. This is the approach many fans like. Just get to the playoffs and hope. But it is teams that make their own luck that I want this team to be. I agree with Orel that they need put on their hitting pants for more than 1 inning a game. Friday’s game was an excellent example. Of course the 4 HRs had something to do with that.
In Friday’s game with the scored tied 5-5, Miguel Vargas led off the 8th with a single. Gavin Lux came to the plate, 0 for his last 17 AB, and he did not even think about bunting. He did what he most often does and that was to ground out to 2B. Fortunately the ball was hit slow enough and close enough to 1B that the play at 1st was the only play. The result was there, and for that we should be happy. But his intent was not to ground out slowly to 2B, and that is what the problem is.
I do not have an answer, or I would be making the millions that Andrew Friedman and Dave Roberts make. I can certainly question, and often times obnoxiously do. But it is concerning that this team is so complacent at times, and cannot get out of their funks timely enough. There is no spark, no fire, no sense of urgency. That is what has decimated this team in the last two NLDS. Yes, last year the starting pitching was bad. But they scored a total of 6 runs in the three games, including two 4-2 losses in Games 2 and 3. The pitching got the blame (deservingly), but the offense should not have gotten a pass.
They do not need to get away from their slug personality, but they do need to do the little things in critical situations like what Freddie did on Tuesday and Friday nights. Don’t strike out or pop up with a runner on 3rd and less than 2 outs. Get the runner to 3rd with no outs. Bunt when the situation calls for it. How about a little hit and run once in a while. Nothing like the runner on 1st taking off with a RH batter at the plate, and the batter letting the pitch travel and punch it through the right side. Yes it does take bat control, something that used to be taught.
I have no idea what AF/BG plan to do with the trade deadline. But I sure hope to see a different approach to the all or nothing swingers they seem attracted to. I love Teoscar Hernández, but they already have one (or two or three or four). Nico Hoerner replacing Lux at 2B (can also play SS) seems like a great tradeoff. Maybe the Cubs would like to get rid of that Hoerner salary. Lux and pitching for Hoerner?
I like the approach that Miguel Vargas is showing this year. JDM told Vargas to be himself. He is not JDM and JDM is not Vargas. That seems to be taking hold this time around. I want to see more. Keep him in the games.
Could be worse. NYY, after being the best team in MLB for first 72 games of the season, have gone 5-13 since (before Saturday). And then you get remarks like this from Aaron Judge’s personal hitting instructor:
“They’ve lost 13 out of 18 while he’s hitting like an MVP,’’ Richard Schenck posted to his Twitter account Thursday. “The Yankees offensive player development is terrible.’’
Schenck’s post was in response to a YES Network tweet July 4, quoting broadcaster Michael Kay saying of Judge: ”He hits, they win. That simple.’’
Manager Aaron Boone’s response:
“People are going to say things, and certainly everyone is entitled to their opinion,” Boone said. “Especially when you go through a tough stretch and you wear this uniform, I know people are going to take shots and things like that.
You can’t get all consumed with all that stuff. We’ve got enough to worry about, making sure we’re buttoned up and putting our best foot forward every day. So that’s the focus.”
Judge’s response – I didn’t say it, go ask Schenck.
Other specious observations from this amateur baseball fan:
Why does Lux seem to be late on most groundballs not hit right at him. Is it always due to where he is positioned? Orel made that comment on Friday’s game on a ball hit by Willy Adames that alluded Lux to his left. He said it was the pitcher who did not pitch the ball where he should have. I get that, but does that explain it completely? Lux seems to miss a lot of balls hit to his left. Could it be he does not react immediately to the ball? I have watched countless 2B make that same play. I first started to pay more attention after watching the Nationals’ Luis Garcia make play after play to his left against LAD. It cannot be proven of course, but I think Luis Garcia makes that play on Adames’ ball. I think Ketel Marte makes that play, Marcus Semien, Nico Hoerner, Thairo Estrada, and I believe Brice Turang all make that play. I wish I had a video recorder that I could synch up batted ball to reaction. Split screen with a timer to time his reaction. As I said, it is something that is rattling around in my brain with no clear answer.
That play in the 4th by Miggy Ro on Brice Turang was eye-popping. Turang was safe, but the effort was exceptional. There is only a handful of batters who are safe on that play. I agree with Sam Oyed that the Turang infield single seemed to unnerve Glasnow. It was that one inning. His 5th and 6th innings were just as dominant as the first three innings. His velo was slightly up over his 2024 average, so I do not think he was running out of gas. He allowed 6 hard hit balls, and only 2 > 100 MPH. Hoskins HR was 99.3 MPH.
Not a good pitch. Certainly not where he wanted it.
MiLB GAME SUMMARY REPORTS
Las Vegas Aviators (A’s) 4 – OKC Baseball Club 2
Ryan Ward slugged a 2 run HR (PCL leading 23rd) in the 1st for a 2-0 lead. Hyun-il Choi gave up a 3-run HR in the 2nd for the lead. 3 singles in the 4th gave LV their 4th run.
#Dodgers OF/1B prospect Ryan Ward hit his 23rd homer of the season in OKC
Ward has a .970 OPS on the year pic.twitter.com/URzsm3zygF
— Bruce Kuntz (@Bnicklaus7) July 7, 2024
Tanner Dodson, Jack Dreyer, and Michael Flynn completed 4 scoreless innings, but the offense could not generate any additional runs.
- Andre Lipcius – 2-4, 1 run
- Ryan Ward – 1-4, 1 run, 2 RBI, HR (23)
Tulsa Drillers 7 – Wichita Wind Surge (Minnesota) 4
Kendall Williams completed 6.0 innings, allowing one run on a solo HR. He gave up 5 hits in total , 3 BB, and 2 K.
Tulsa tied the score in the 6th when Dalton Rushing was HBP and scored on a Damon Keith double.
In the 7th, Griffin Lockwood-Powell walked and moved to 3rd on Brandon Davis’ double. Both runners scored on a Bubba Alleyne triple. Alleyne scored on Yeiner Fernandez’s sac fly. Taylor Young drew a BB and scored on Dalton Rushing’s single.
In the 8th, GLP drew a BB, Brandon Davis singled, and Yeiner Fernandez walked to load the bases. Alex Freeland hit a 2-run scoring single to give Tulsa a 7-1 lead going into the 9th.
Lucas Wepf was summoned to close it out. But he surrendered a 2-run HR and a solo HR in the 9th before he got the final out.
- Dalton Rushing – 2-3, HBP, 1 run, 1 RBI
- Brandon Davis – 2-4, 2 runs, double (15)
- Bubba Alleyne – 1-4, 1 run, 2 RBI, triple (2)
- Damon Keith – 1-3, 1 BB, 1 RBI, double (6)
As an aside, Minnesota drafted Luke Keaschall as a CF out of Arizona State in the 2nd round in last year’s draft at overall #49. Billy Gasparino passed over Keaschall for Kendall George.
- Keaschall (21) is from Watsonville, so he is probably a Giants fan. But he is probably a better choice for the Dodgers than is George.
- Keaschall High A – 197 PA – .335/.457/.544/1.001, 12 doubles, 7 HRs, 30 BB, 29 K, 14 SB, 1 CS
- Keaschall AA – 170 PA – .291/.400/.411/.811, 9 doubles, 2 HRs, 21 BB, 37 K, 5 SB, 3 CS
- Kendall George Low A – 250 PA – .277/.376/.310/.686, 3 doubles, 2 triples, 33 BB, 51 K, 21 SB, 8 CS
- Keaschall is already Twins #5 and MLB Top 100 at #94.
George was LAD 1st round pick at #36 overall. He is LAD #10 prospect.
West Michigan Whitecaps (Detroit) 2 – Great Lakes Loons 0 – 8 innings
Jackson Ferris pitched the game of his short career. 7.0 shutout innings, 2 hits, 0 walks, 1 HBP, and 11 K. This was a scheduled 7 inning game, Ferris throws 7 shoutout innings, and he gets a no-decision. Three Whitecaps pitchers matched Ferris with 0 runs, even though they allowed 4 hits and 5 walks.
Top #Dodgers LHP prospect Jackson Ferris was EXCELLENT today for Great Lakes
7.0 IP
2 H
0 R
0 BB
11 K
96 P / 71 SFerris has continued to dial it in as the season has gone on & he’s had some fantastic starts lately. Looking like a big future piece for LA pic.twitter.com/x57XSnZiTR
— Bruce Kuntz (@Bnicklaus7) July 7, 2024
Michael Martinez allowed 2 runs in the 8th, and Great Lakes stranded runners on 1st and 2nd with a pop out and 2 Ks.
Jake Vogel was 2-2 with a BB, while Kyle Nevin and Thayron Liranzo had the other two hits. Nevin’s hit was a double (13).
West Michigan Whitecaps (Detroit) 5 – Great Lakes Loons 3 – 7 innings
Great Lakes broke out a 2-0 lead, and 3-2 lead but could not hold it. In the 3rd, with two outs, Noah Miller and Dylan Campbell singled. Miller scored when Kyle Nevin reached on a fielding error. With runners on 1st and 3rd, Campbell and Nevin tried for a double steal, and Campbell scored before Nevin was tagged out.
Jose Rodriguez walked a pair in the 4th, a passed ball moved the runners to 2nd and 3rd. A two-out double tied the score
Sam Mongelli hit a solo HR in the bottom of the 4th.
In the 6th with Garrett McDaniels on the bump, he allowed a walk, 2 singles and a double to push across 3 for the eventual win.
- Noah Miller – 2-3, 1 BB, 1 run
- Chris Newell – 1-3, double (13)
- Sam Mongelli – 1-3, 1 run, 1 RBI, HR (4)
Visalia Rawhide (Arizona) 10 – Rancho Cucamonga Quakes 6
Despite a pair of homers from Cameron Decker, the Quakes dropped Saturday’s game in Visalia, a 10-6 decision to the Rawhide.
Decker’s first homer, a two-run shot, broke a 2-2 in the fourth, giving Rancho a 4-2 lead. That was the last time Rancho led though, as the Rawhide scored five times in the fourth and took the lead for good, on their way to a series-win over the Quakes for the second time this week.
Down 7-4 in the eighth, Decker struck again, hammering his second two-run homer and third of the year, making it 7-6.
That’s as close as the Quakes would get though, as an error in the last of the eighth allowed three unearned runs to score, as the Rawhide took a 10-6 lead and held on for the win.
- Jesus Galiz – 4-4, 3 runs, 3 doubles (14) – 2 passed balls for 13 thus far in 2024.
- Cameron Decker – 2-3, 1 BB, 2 runs, 4 RBI, 2 HR (3)
- Sean McLain – 1-3, 1 BB, 1 run, 1 RBI, double (4)
- Wilman Diaz – 2-4, 1 RBI
ACL Dodgers 8 – ACL Padres 7
Like many I used to look at batting averages to determine how good a player was. I learned early to just get on base so I looked at that too. Now the go to measurement is OPS.
Looking at the Dodgers team stats this morning it’s clear to me that something is clearly amiss.
The league average OPS in ‘24 is .706. The Dodgers have 7 player below that figure and one, Pages, barely above it at .715.
Lux .547
Heyward .698
Kiké .567
Taylor .485
Outman .532
Barnes .529
Biggio .452.
For a team that stresses OPS something appears to have gone terribly wrong.
I think it’s important to note that yes, the team is among league leaders in runs scored. But these numbers, and WRISP numbers, are in my opinion indicative of a system problem that needs to be addressed.
I’ve said all year that taking get me over Strike 1’s is just wrong. I believe in Corey Seager’s approach which has resulted in an OPS over 1.000 on the first pitch. I’ve also criticized the team’s all or nothing approach with 2 strikes.
Is it the RVS approach? I believe so, and is not going to change. These 7 players that are well below league average are going to have to take it upon themselves to learn how to hit line drives. And yes, watching and repeating what Freddie does would be a good place to start.
Thank you for your take on the Dodgers situational hitting. And irrespective of RVS’s past successes, it’s obvious–with every monotonous, tiresome rollover to 2B–Lux does not benefit from his coaching.
As fans, if we simply watch the game and how it is played and performed by players like Lux and Vargas, we see that Lux has problems on both ends, fielding and hitting. No one needs to tell me anything about his swing, stance, attitude, or where he should be playing. It’s self-evident that he is not doing well.
OTOH, I see a completely different picture regarding Vargas. If he has indeed turned the corner on his hitting, and that HR was beautiful he hit yesterday, he should be given every opportunity to maximize his playing time.
Without going into naming the players I feel are really not contributing this season, what the hell does the FO expect the fans to feel and think regarding their continued use of players that are not getting better? So many fans feel that players who have had really good seasons in the past will magically have another and all you have to do is march them out every game. Brings to mind Kemp and how hard it was to accept that he didn’t have it in him any more. If you are not having more really good years than not, you don’t belong on my team.
Outman will be the next experiment and I hope Vargas doesn’t suffer for it. Outman’s splits and SO frequency are a problem especially for a team that is trying to build up its bottom rotation pieces.
Muncy is probably gone this year. I have to question the trainers and what kind of program they have a guy like Muncy on. Usually overweight, I would think athletes should pride themselves on being and staying in shape. Muncy is oft injured. If he didn’t hit so many HRs, he would have been traded long ago. In a way, the Dodgers will have to learn who those players are that will help this team win games without necessarily being all or nothing players. I was hoping Heyward would rise this season but alas, he has not, and the team should try and move off of him and free up the space for the Farm. Isn’t that what the Farm is all about? They commit to the wrong players too often. It’s that algorithm, I say.
I agree w your statement about there being a lack of fire and urgency. That’s what I have been saying for a few years.
Is it because the team takes on the personality of the manager? Is it because there is so much talent they expect to win? Is it because they lack a player,like Gibson, who will keep the pressure on?
I believe all 3 are having their effect.
There’s nothing wrong with RVS. There is something wrong believing one size fits all. Take Freeman for example. He has an approach that works for him. He stayed with that approach when he came to the Dodgers. Vargas on the other hand tried to apply RVS principles to his detriment. He seems to be back to his old style and the results speak for themselves.
Roberts has said he would give Taylor a long runway at 3rd. It’s also be said that Vargas is taking ground balls at 3rd. Play him as soon as he is ready (to close enough), and the Dodgers RISP will improve. There is more than enough slug on this team to support a bat to ball approach in the lineup.
Lux is fast but maybe he’s just not quick.
I agree that Vargas should be playing every day. It doesn’t look like we will see any AAA hitters until the rosters expand. In the mean time, we appear to be stuck with a bench, and a couple of starters, below league average in OPS. That isn’t likely to change unless Friedman changes it in the next few weeks.
Starting pitching. Glasnow needs a break. Miller needs to perform and Friedman needs to add an arm or two. Here’s hoping Wrobleski is ready.
Nice win yesterday. I’d like to see us not go 6 innings without scoring but I’ll take it.
*Paxton had a good 5 innings. As a north-south pitcher, he’s going to give up some home runs. Living at the top of the zone with fastballs is going to produce some long balls. And the Varsity bullpen group had a nice 4 innings giving up one.
*I’ve said my piece about CT3 so I’m going to make a couple more observations and then shut up about him.
CT3 struck out swing twice again yesterday. With 2 on, he missed a perfect center cut, cockshot, at 95 and swung right underneath it. Big League hitters should never completely miss that pitch. The very worst is a foul ball but a complete whiff is seldom seen.
Smoltz had a real accurate comment about CT3’s swing. “He has basically the same swing no matter what pitch.” Yup, occasionally the ball might hit his bat. I’ve also noticed how often he runs out of bat on breaking balls low and away. He needs about a 40” bat. He missed a breaking ball in the zone, away, yesterday off the end of his bat. How about moving closer to the plate so he can cover that pitch? Ans swing at strikes.
Later, Smoltz also mentioned how hitters no longer move around in the box based on the pitcher’s out pitch. Basically, moving up in the box to take away the breaking ball. I never like that personally as it makes you vulnerable to the fastball, in perceived velocity. But it was an interesting comment and absolutely nobody does it. Rod Carew had many stances and was all over the batter’s box.
*Jackson Chourio leads off for the Brewers and is 20. It’s also his 4th year in pro-ball. That’s another example of Latin kids having an advantage over US kids. Signing at 16 gets those kids started in pro ball when US kids are sophomores in high school. They can have 6 years by 21. With Academies, quality coaching, good weather and a desire to hit your way off the island have these kids way ahead of the game. Paul Skenes has been on the super fast track to the Big Leagues, throwing 34 innings in MiLB after 3 college seasons. He just turned 22. His teammate at LSU and the 2nd overall pick behind Skenes in last year’s draft, is doing well in AA, also at 22. Orioles catcher Adley Rutschman, the 1 -1 in the 2019 draft was a sure thing, yet spent 3 seasons in MiLB debuting at age 24. Mets catcher, Francisco Alvarez, by comparison, is 22. He is in his 3rd season as an MLB catcher and 5 seasons in pro-ball.
*I like Pat Murphy. He just looks like a baseball guy. Which brings up the Trivia question. How many guys have been a College Head Coach and an MLB Manager? I have looked it up and can’t find any. Plenty of guys played in the bigs and went on to coach and be administrators in college but I can’t find one who skippered a college and MLB team. Bear, come to the rescue.
*Ohtani’s baseball skills are obvious but he is so attentive on the field. On his triple, he saw the throw get by third. He was up and looking to go home until he saw the pitcher backing up third. Not everybody does that. Most guys would be doing the Freddie at the bag instead of looking to advance.
*I’m warming up to the City Connect uniforms. After seeing some others around the league, these may be the least ugly. I mean, we could look like SD with the ones that look like an explosion in a paint store or the horrible all black outfits. Have you seen the All-Star Game uniforms?
Well-written piece. Good news on Ferris.
Our pitching woes could be solved. Dakota Hudson dfa by Colorado go get him AF. (Sarcasm) couldn’t beat anybody else but beat the Dodgers 4-1 completely dominating. Injury prone, reclamation project, former projected star in the Cardinals system, cheap. Yep a target for AF.
Rockies designated Dakota Hudson for assignment.
Vargas might get some reps at third, we need to wait and see. Looking forward to seeing Wrobleski today
Brandon Gomes:
“We’re fortunate enough to be in a good spot in the division right now. So that will dictate a lot of it. So depending on how things progress – do we have to make moves that are more focused on the now or can we continue to evaluate and focus on bigger-picture moves?”
The way many writers are interpreting “bigger picture” and specifically CONTINUING “bigger picture”, they seem to believe that the front office is not interested in paying the exorbitant cost for rentals. That is why some are still convinced that the Dodgers are very much in on Luis Robert Jr., Garrett Crochet, Tarik Skubal. And not Flaherty and the boat load of #6 SP that will be available. No, Flaherty is not a #6, but he is a rental.
For pitching, the “bigger picture” seems to be Knack, Wrobleski, and hoping Miller continues his rehab at the MLB level. Maybe they get Yamamoto for September, but what if they don’t? What if Buehler is as good as he is going to get (for this year). Kershaw remains a big question. Trading deadline will be gone by the time Kershaw is ready to resume pitching at MLB. And Yamamoto.
Does “bigger picture” mean moving any of the injured pitchers who cannot help this year, but will (should) be available next year? I am assuming that only Emmet Sheehan will not be ready for ST. Ohtani, Yamamoto, May, Gonsolin, Frasso, Ryan, Hurt, Kershaw, Miller…That is 9 besides Glasnow, Stone, Knack, and Wrobleski. Campos will be closer. Ferris should be at AA (should be this year.) Does the big picture mean to include two of the 13 plus others position players for Crochet or Skubal? Does the big picture mean trading the likes of any of Josue De Paula, Zyhir Hope, Eduardo Quintero, Joendry Vargas, or Thayron Liranzo for Luis Robert Jr. ?
What does the bigger picture mean for Maddux Bruns, Edgardo Henriquez, or Carlos Duran?
What is the bigger picture, Dalton Rushing or Diego Cartaya?
Or is the bigger picture…”I need to get the players necessary to push this team to the World Series this year, or lose my job”. AF is undoubtedly not in any risk, but that isn’t true for Gomes, Gasparino, and Roberts. If they do not at least get to the WS, somebody is going to be a scapegoat.
In a couple of weeks, I guess we are going to learn what Brandon Gomes thinks focusing on the bigger picture truly is.
Dodgers just sold Matt Gage to the Mets. Roster spot now open for Wrobleski. Just need to move a man off of the 26-man roster.
The team traded LHP Matt Gage to Mets for $$$$$. If you will recall, Gage was part of that trade sending Caleb Ferguson to NYY. Has never been a good fit, he started with elbow issues and from there went 1-3 with a 4.29 ERA in 20 games for Triple-A Oklahoma City.
CREAM
I always liked when Kershaw was interviewed during the game by the booth. He always was knowledgeable and entertaining. I thought Kershaw would make a great color commentator. I have to admit Mookie might be just as good as Kershaw.
Wrobleski making a statement through 3
Pages hasn’t made good contact in a while. Many weak pop-ups the last few games 🙁
I wrote this March 9, 2023.
https://doger.livewebsitedesign.com/my-2023-dark-horse-justin-wrobleski/
My 2024 dark horse, Jared Karros, is in Camelback on the Development List (June 15). He dominated at Great Lakes (A+) and was a quick promotion to Tulsa (AA). His AA debut did not go well, but his last start on June 9 was very good. Good to excellent starts in between.
And another line drive on 1st strike for Outman.
Rough day. 1 for 9 RISP, 11 LOB. Good weekend however. Took the series against a good 1st place team. Just gets tougher. Phillies up next on the road.
Not a great outing by Wrobleski, but not terrible. Yarbs and Banda let it get ugly.
Six Dodgers on the All-Star team. Ohtani, Smith, Betts, who won’t play, Glasnow, Freeman and Hernandez. Should have known something was wrong with my sign in, has me as Old Bear, should be Michael Norris since I changed it.
Jekyll and Hyde is right, three stinkers and three thrillers. I don’t think my heart can take this all year!!!
Riddle me this, how come Gavin Stone is not an All-Star and Paul Skenes is?????