There is a difference between warming up for one inning relief and warming up for bulk inning relief. I do not see the problem of an opener and then bringing in Yamamoto. Yamamoto can warm up as a starter and come in the 2nd or 3rd inning. Maybe throw 10-15 more of his splitter, curve, and cutter and try to land them for strikes in the bullpen. The Dodgers thought he was tipping his pitches, but Yamamoto discounted that. I remember that being a concern early in ST where Yamamoto had his glove open and the runners on the bases could see what was coming. I do not know why, but that apparently was not an issue in Japan. The Dodgers coaches worked to eliminate that open glove peek into his finger location. Perhaps his tendency with the glove is back again.
IMO, he does not land his secondary pitches enough for strikes that the batter does not offer, whereby in Japan he probably got a lot of swing and miss. For Yamamoto to be dominant, he needs to land at least one of his splitter (24.2%)/curve (23.1%)/cutter (6.1%) enough to be competitive pitches to be a compliment to his excellent 4-seamer.
I have read from others (not this site) that you cannot win a WS if all you have is a bullpen game. I do not disagree with that, but you have to beat SD on Friday to move to the next series. The Dodgers need to do what they believe is the best way to win this one game. Worry about NLCS later.
If indeed the Dodgers choose to have an opener, who should it be? IMO it cannot be Ryan Brasier again. He has faced Luis Arráez 2 times in the NLDS, Tatis Jr. 3 times, Profar 3 times, and Machado 3 times. He only allowed a single to Machado in Game 2. He retired the rest. He faced Merrill just once, but that was a HR.
Phillips? He has been excellent in his 2.2 IP. He has faced Tatis Jr. 2 times, but Arráez, Profar, Machado, and Merrill just once.
Hudson has pitched 2.1 innings in 3 games. He has faced Arráez, Tatis Jr., and Profar just once. He has not faced Machado. Cronenworth hit a booming triple, and Tatis Jr. did hit a 104.6 line drive to Andy Pages in CF (389 feet) off Hudson.
Of that RH group, only Brasier has experience as an opener. Anthony Banda has opened twice this year, but IMO he is not an option as a LHP. The first 4 batters have 2 RH hitters and 1 switch hitter. They could also move Bogaerts to #5 and drop Merrill to #6 for 3 RH hitters in top 5. Banda has normal lefty/righty splits, so it is best he comes in to face LH batters. In the three games he has appeared, he has faced 12 batters; 8 LH and 4 RH. Merrill and Peralta have each singled, but Banda has struck out both batters as well. For RH batters, he has not allowed a hit, but did walk Bogaerts. Bogaerts has also grounded out against Banda. Of the top of the order, Banda only faced the LH hitting Arráez, who he got to fly out to CF.
Yamamoto’s worst innings are the 1st and 3rd innings. His 2nd inning is okay. But his 4th-6th innings have been excellent. He has allowed only 2 ER in 35.2 IP in the 4th – 6th innings. Ironically (or not), it was the 1st and 3rd inning that SD put up their 5 runs on Yamamoto.
Only the #2 hitter and the #5 hitter have an OPS+ against Yamamoto > 91. But those are 147 and 142 respectively. Do you take him out of the 1st inning so he only has to face Tatis Jr. once or twice (max)?
So how do you attack the SD hitters? Here is what they have done in the first 4 games of the NLDS:
For comparison, LAD is .244/.309/.407/.716. The big difference is in slug. The Dodgers have 1 double and 7 HR for 8 XBH. The Padres have 15 XBH. The biggest obstacle for LAD pitching is Fernando Tatis Jr. He has a .500 OBP with 3 doubles and 3 HR.
The Dodgers do have a recipe for getting Tatis Jr. out, but they need to execute it. Start a breaking ball on the outer part of the plate to horizontally break out of the hitting zone. Unfortunately LAD pitchers’ command too often leaves that pitch out over the plate, which he punishes.
Machado is always a threat (especially against the Dodgers), but he is easier to get out because he is such a free swinger. He chases and does not like to walk. He is in the 42nd percentile for chase, 50th percentile for whiff, and 36th percentile for BB. Start something on the outer third of the plate with a lot of horizontal movement and he will swing.
I do not know why Peralta is such a weapon against LAD, but he has been. Just like LAD, everyone of the Padres is capable, but not nearly the threat that Tatis Jr. and Machado are.
I have no idea what they have learned about Arráez, but they have stifled him in the NLDS. Not just the NLDS, but for 2024 he is hitting .152/.152/.212/.364 against LAD and for his career he is hitting .185/.221/.277/.498. Whatever they are doing, keep it up. But he is such a prolific hitter, he can adjust on the fly.
I have no idea which way AF/BG/Doc/Prior/McGuiness/Lehman/Geren are leaning for the starter, but it will not be impulsive. Do they trust Yamamoto in the 1st inning? The 3rd inning? Do they trust Flaherty to keep the ball in the yard. If it is an opener which one? Is going with Brasier going back to the well once too often? Phillips? Hudson? Banda?
Regardless, it is an all hands on deck game. Get this one and then get ready for NYM, the 2024 team of destiny?
I am not sure why Kevin Seitzer was fired by Atlanta as their hitting coach. In 12 years as a MLB hitter, Seitzer batted .295/.375/.404/.780 in 6,602 PA. He had more BB (669) than K (617). That is less than 10% K rate. A good bat to ball skills talent.
Atlanta finished ninth in the NL with a .243 team batting average and their .724 OPS ranked seventh. The Braves scored 704 runs during the regular season, finishing seventh in the league and giving the team a +97 run differential.
However, in 2023, Atlanta led MLB with a .276 team average, .501 slugging percentage, .845 OPS, 947 runs scored and 307 home runs (a record, tied with 2019 Twins).
Seitzer was Atlanta’s hitting coach for 10 years. 16 years hitting coach in total (4 teams).
In 2024, they were without Ronald Acuña Jr. for most of the year, with large game losses for All Stars Austin Riley and Ozzie Albies, as well as large game losses for Michael Harris II.
Compare Seitzer’s stats with RVS who did not have an AB after High School. In High School he had a combined 18-79 (.228) in his junior and senior seasons. He had 14 singles and 4 doubles in his High School career.
Not making any conjecture. Just looking at a recently terminated successful hitting coach compared to the current LAD hitting coach.
Alanna with a Game 5 preview.
Matthew Moreno joins; Game 5 preview | Dodgers Territory (youtube.com)
Go Dodgers!!!!!!!!!!!!
According to several reports the Dodgers will go with Yoshi as the starter in Game 5.
Locked on Dodgers also reported this.
Will have a very short leash . Lets hope Yoshi has the stuff like he did in that Yankees series . But Padres have had his number for sure this season.
I am still fine with the decision and will not hold it against Doc if Yoshi goes south..
Since Yoshi never has come out of the bullpen before IMHO the only situation you pitch him is as a starter. In a winner take all game it is not smart to ask a player to suddenly do what he has never done before.
Surprise! Yamamoto to Start Game 5 for Los Angeles Dodgers + Freeman’s Status & Shildt’s Grumpiness (youtube.com)
Go Dodgers!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Jeff, really good analysis. Without having an Ace on the Dodger staff, no one can wholeheartedly believe that the two starters we have that are still standing will be dominating. Both Flaherty and Yamamoto have given up more than a few hits in their playoff starts and 2HR off Flaherty, 1Hr off Yamamoto. Yamamoto has also walked more batters than most of our relievers.Neither pitcher has been able to SO the Pads as they may have done during the season. Neither should start IMO. I’m okay with Yamamoto relieving, but maybe not close to the start of the game. Just a feeling. Banda and Kopech have not given up any runs in the series. Some scares, maybe. Both have SO more than any other pitchers except Treinen, who also has 4 SO but also 3 hits. Treinen 1.88WHIP. Yamamoto, 2.33WHIP. The more I think about Yamamoto, the more I don’t want to see him unless it’s really an emergency. I say go with the BP. They are proving themselves to be elite. Why stop them now?
Rojas did not take batting practice yesterday, no fielding drills either.
With FF also injured can the Dodgers afford to go into Game 5 with basically 2 players short ?
Go Dodgers!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
I understand the reasoning behind going with a bullpen game to get by SD now, and just deal with Yoshi later. But reality doesn’t change, and it can’t be avoided. No way, no how will LAD “bullpen game” their way MULTIPLE times thru the Mets to win a 7-game series against them, so the Dodgers CAN NOT win a championship unless Yoshi becomes an effective playoff SP for the team. So far since his return from injury, he hasn’t been very good on the mound, but that must change right now! And starting today is the BEST chance he’ll have at turning his season around and taking that first step to becoming the pitcher he needs to be in the playoffs going forward. Why? Because today he’ll have the HUGE advantage of starting the game pitching from the late-afternoon shadows. And let’s face it – If he can’t find a way to get batters out with THAT advantage, then there’s no point in going forward anyway. And just start him without another “opener pitcher,” since he’s not used to pitching out of the pen. If he falters, yank him early.
Just start Yoshi this game ..and hope for the best.
Bobby – you not in London for The Bears on Sunday????
Good writing today
cant wait for the game!
Very good look at what has gone on so far with these two teams in this series. I was surprised at Merrill’s hitting only .214. But, include his three BB then he has an OBP of .352. He seems to be on base all the time.
As far as the pitching setup for tonight it will be criticized no matter what the FO and coaches decide to do. I would start Yamamoto with someone warming up in the BP right from the start. Only the Dodgers would pay a pitcher who has never pitched in MLB $325M. He only lasts 14 starts to begin the season and then they have patch him up for the playoffs hoping he can get through the first inning. Awesome!
If they were to win tonight, how far can they possibly go in the playoffs with no starters they can trust? And, it’s not just the Dodgers. It’s amazing to me that baseball, with all the technology, analytics, training and nutrition techniques, cannot produce a large group of healthy pitchers able to start every 4,5, or 6 days throughout an entire season and postseason. Something is seriously wrong here.
Anyway, I’m looking forward to tonight’s game and a Dodger victory. Dodger Stadium will be rocking.
Carry on.
I know this is well behind, but I found this by Joe Sheehan on the Machado baseline thing to be evocative of my thoughts:
Joesheehan.com ($$$)
If Machado’s play is legal, and by all accounts it is, I’d like to know where the line is drawn on runners blocking throws. Can a baserunner just knock down a throw on its way to a fielder? Can he catch it and toss it into foul territory? Can a runner going first to second stay in a direct line but wave his hands — and oven mitt — in the air like he just doesn’t care? If what Machado did, going well out of his way to block Freeman’s throw, is acceptable, why wouldn’t blocking a throw from right field to third base be? I am honestly asking, because if Machado’s actions don’t break any rules, it seems to open the door to a lot more hijinks on the basepaths.
I haven’t thought much about this, but I think the worry about bullpen games is the increased chance of something going wrong. If you’re using seven pitchers instead of three or four, you’re doubling the chance of a pitcher having a bad outing and the game getting out of hand.
Like, and I’m just making up these numbers, but they drive towards the point, if there is a 20% chance of a picture and just having a bad outing. And you have more than five pitchers…
I’m reading Yamamoto will start.
ok, if that’s Doc’s decision, I trust his judgment.
It will mean the top of the lineup will get two looks at him. In a game of this importance, I would strongly suggest starting the game with a closer, ending the game with a closer, using two starters in the middle somewhere and matching up so the top of that lineup gets different looks at every opportunity. The bullpen has handled those guys. Unconventional for sure, but in my opinion the Padres are the second best team remaining in this tournament. Do whatever it takes to beat them.
Below is an article on Zyhir Hope who could very well land in the MLB Pipeline (and Baseball America) top 100 prospects if not pre-season, certainly by mid-season. Jim Callis is a must go to for me, especially when he writes about LAD prospects. He is extremely knowledgeable and totally unbiased.
This was going to be part of my MiLB autopsy, but because it is in the Arizona Fall League I thought I would share it as a stand-alone.
Zyhir Hope very much looks like the LAD CF of the future. I only hope AF/BG push him like the Cubs are pushing Pete Crow-Armstrong, Milwaukee is pushing Jackson Chourio, and SD pushed Jackson Merrill. Hope will be 20 when the season starts next, and should start at Great Lakes (A+). Hopefully he reaches at least AA as a 20 year old.
https://www.mlb.com/news/dodgers-zyhir-hope-hits-470-foot-homer-in-arizona-fall-league?t=arizona-fall-league
Zahir Hope making his presence known in the AFL. First, he made a catch crashing into the wall to preserve a 15-13 win for the Desert Dogs, then the next night he launched a 470-foot homer. It is going to be fun watching this kid play.
After looking at Yamamoto’s stats, Yamamoto has been very good against LHB this year, but bad against RHB. The problem is: Merrill (a LHB) kills RHP. Arráez (a LHB) is good against RHP both this year and in his career. That’s a recipe for disaster against Arráez, Tatis, Profar, Machado, and Merrill. Flaherty has the same reverse splits too and is prone to giving up HR’s that can kill you in the playoffs.
One thing I did notice after looking at the Padres stats is the Padres are VERY VULNERABLE against LHP. If the Padres manager sticks to the same lineup as game 4, Banda is a good fit to come into the game against Merrill and stay in the game through Arráez at the top of the lineup. Even Tatis is bad against LHP this year, but not in his career. Banda is vulnerable against RHB, but Bogaert (a RHB) is having a down year this year and Higashioka (a RHB) has been bad his whole career. Banda has the lowest HR% among the relievers and Vesia is tied with Phillips, Brasier and Treinen for 2nd lowest HR%.
Vesia has very good splits against both RHB and LHB. Vesia is a good fit to eat up innings effectively against anyone in the Padres lineup while Banda is a very good fit to eat up innings starting with Merrill and going through Arráez.
They don’t make them like this anymore, Casey Stengel re-enacting releasing a bird from under his hat at Dodger Stadium as he manages a team at Oldtimers day. Notice the auxiliary scoreboards along the fence.
Watching the Yankees – Jazz Chisholm should be traded to the Padres. His act would be perfect there. I first saw him hot-dogging it up in Fall Ball in 2018. Since then he was traded from Miami to the Yankees. He’s an adventure at third but I’m surprised the Yankees condone his act. Soto has changed for the better due to the influence of Judge and Stanton. Even Verdugo is a better citizen.
Not so for Jazz. His name along says a mouthful. Last night there was a little altercation at 2nd base over a slide and tag. It had nothing to do with Jazz but he gets right in the middle of it running his mouth having to be restrained by teammates. His just an ass-hole. He insists on wearing his hat like a friggin Rapper and being a hot dog. He’s a stain on the Yankees
I don’t think the key to winning this game is Yamamoto. Doc will have a Plan B and take him out quick before a bad Yoshi outing could torpedo the Dodgers chances early in the game. And I’m sure the BP can keep hopes alive ..at least until the late innings.
This game is all about the offense. They need to get on Darvish early. I’m confident Ohtani/Betts/Freeman/Teo will at least do some damage to him. But to score enough runs to win this game, the middle/bottom of the order MUST be effective too.
So for me, the key matchup(s) is Muncy/Smith/Lux/Edman versus Darvish.
If those 4 Dodgers collectively hit well, the Dodgers will score big and win it. And therein lies the key to winning this game.
Former Dodgers pitchers electing free agency:
· J.P. Feyereisen (2024 with LAD)
· Dylan Covey (2023 with LAD)
· Wander Suero (2023 with LAD)
Freddie back in the lineup hitting 3rd. Kike playing CF and batting 8th. They dropped Edman to the 9 spot. Otherwise it is business as usual. Ohtani, Betts, Freeman, Teo, Muncy, Smith, Lux, Kike, Edman.
Gooooooooooooo Dodgers!!!!! Defrock the Friars!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
I know it is self serving, but here is an article on my son, Andy, from the Society for American Baseball Research (SABR – a good source).
https://sabr.org/bioproj/person/andy-dominique/
Darvish has been very good against us and Yamamoto has been like a rabbit in the headlights against them.
i gotta bad feeling about this.
As earlier there was a discussion on hitting staffs and coaches, BA takes a look at how the BoSox are tooling theirs:
($$$$)
https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/how-the-red-sox-overhauled-their-hitting-development-program-in-2024/
After the 2022 season, the Red Sox engaged in an organizational self-examination….
“We probably weren’t getting progress in development, maybe the way that we had hoped,” Red Sox farm director Brian Abraham said…
The Red Sox leaned hard into overhauling their hitting development in pursuit of alignment behind a clear organization-wide philosophy. … Boston hired Jason Ochart—who founded Driveline’s hitting program in 2016,
A heavy emphasis was placed on work in the batting cages…. hitters could get immediate feedback on the location of the pitches they were swinging at, how hard they were hitting the ball, their launch angles and the expected wOBA…
The Dodgers paid Yamamoto over 300 million for games like this. U gotta start him. Besides Ohtani wants him to start. Seriously, win or lose the decision has been made. Go Dodgers!!!!!
One inning down for Yamamoto. Now let’s score some serious runs.
Twice through the order max?!???
Yamamoto did his job superbly. Doc’s going to the BP now and we need some runs. Lets go Dodgers!
I know Kiki drives many here nuts during the season offensively, but his versatility and defense make up for. It also allows him to play in the playoffs where he becomes a hall of fame player. At the end it’s worth it to me.
Watching some really horrible AB’s by the Dodgers. Make a freaking adjustment for gawd sakes.
Ohtani is due.
Maybe he’s waiting to hit with someone on base.
Damn, Vesia is gone. Banda is the only LHP left against a Padres offense that’s vulnerable against LHP.
Kopech scares me in a tight game late in the game because he’s prone to giving up HR’s, although it was when he was with the Sox.
If I remember right when I was looking at stats, Kopech is very good against LHB which is what he just faced. But below average against RHB.
Guess we worry about it when the time comes but using a pen like this isn’t likely sustainable. I don’t know what happened to Vesia but overuse has to be a factor.
Hopefully whatever happened with Vesia isn’t serious.
More runs and then Treinen to close it out. As Kopech said when he K’d Chroenworth………Lets F@#$*&g Go!
It seems like Treinen relies on batters chasing his pitches. Hopefully that happens.
Dodgers advance.👊👍
Ok. My heart just restarted.
What tremendous performance by Yamamoto and the BP. Let’s continue the mission in New York and finish it in New York.
Guys I’m a moron, and I’ve never been happier to be one. This was so sweet. I’m sorry I ever doubted the boys. No more house cleaning needed.
Pile it on me. I deserve it. This team is special.
Let’s go Dodgers!!!
Amazing NLDS with the Dodgers coming back from the brink of elimination to get two straight shutouts to advance. Not going to lie, beating the cockiest team in baseball was sweet.
BP was amazing. Moving forward I have to wonder if Vesia will be OK and where do the Dodgers go to fill the Henriquez and maybe Casparius roster slots. Henriquez is probably not ready for meaningful innings. Could sure use a healthy Graterol and Joe Kelly.,
Ironic our sp has been sooo bad. 24 straight scoreless innings. Great win!!!!
i was ready to start biting my nails in the ninth. No way a 123 ninth. Kike fabulous offense n defense. Playoff pitching is a different animal. With all the injuries I will never question the intestinal fortitude of this team. They had the guts of a burglar. The team looked focused, aggressive, and confident.